The recent German federal election held on February 23, 2025, has ushered in what many are calling the real Zeitenwende, or turning point, for Germany under the new Chancellor Friedrich Merz. This election saw record voter turnout, with 82.5% of the 59.2 million eligible voters casting their ballots, the highest since 1987. The outcome has significantly altered the political dynamics of the country, bringing forth challenges and opportunities for the new coalition government.
According to reports from various analyses, the election results showed the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) winning 28.6% of the votes, translating to 208 seats, which represented a 4.4% increase from the previous elections. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made considerable gains, securing 20.8% of the votes (roughly 152 seats), marking an increase of 10.4%. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) saw its support plummet to only 16.4%, losing 9.3% compared to the last election, amounting to just 120 seats.
This electoral shift not only highlights the rise of the AfD but also sets the stage for potential coalition negotiations between Merz’s CDU and the SPD. Friedrich Merz has committed to forming a governing coalition by April 20, 2025, aiming to establish his authority after the previous SPD-Greens-FDP administration.
Jan Techau, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, emphasized the urgency of this moment, stating, "It's finally Zeitenwende," though he cautioned about the numerous obstacles. Critics argue the previous government under Olaf Scholz introduced minimal changes to Germany's defense strategies, which were recently highlighted during his landmark Zeitenwende speech following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Techau warned, "If they don’t get it done within the next four weeks, the next government’s fiscal space on defense will be extremely limited, and this would be catastrophic.” He was referring to the controversial debt brake limiting budget deficits, which many are calling to loosen to allow for increased defense spending. The implication is clear: efficient coalition talks and decisive policy changes are necessary to pivot Germany toward stronger security capabilities.
The growing influence of the AfD, which has emerged as the second-largest party, poses additional questions for Germany’s political future. Merz’s CDU faces pressure to distance itself from the AfD's hardline immigration stance, particularly as he previously supported measures alongside the party, contradicting the established political norm known as the ‘firewall’ against cooperation with far-right elements.
During the election night, Merz declared Europe must gain independence from the US, reflecting changing geopolitical dynamics. Previously, other prominent German leaders’ decisions aligned closely with American policies. Today, discussion around establishing stronger European defense capabilities echoes urgent necessity, bolstered by the challenging economic crisis Germany faces.
The federal election results reflected not only the shifting political allegiances among the populace but also the deep societal divides exacerbated by the current global climate. Many traditional voters have turned to populist parties like the AfD, signaling dissatisfaction with mainstream politics and creating pressure on established parties to recalibrate their strategies.
Political analysts suggest Merz's chancellorship is at risk of becoming stagnant if the coalition fails to produce ambitious reforms. “Much depends on the Social Democrats now,” Techau reiterated, highlighting the interplay of political will required to enact necessary change.
Despite facing challenges of uniting differing ideological factions, recent leadership changes within the SPD may signal opportunities for compromise. Merz's newly appointed cabinet seeks to navigate complex issues surrounding immigration, defense reforms, and economic resilience following decades of underinvestment.
The dynamics within Germany are mirrored by broader European concerns. Observers note the increasing pressures from populist movements across the continent, demanding responses to socio-economic inequalities and global obligations such as supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.
To steer this new era, leaders must be bold. "To see off those wolves, Germans need one quality above all: courage,” suggests Techau. This notion raises questions about whether the new coalition can transcend past political dynamics, debating whether austerity measures will continue to dominate or if Germany will pivot decisively toward more expansive investment strategies across various sectors.
The 2025 elections could be viewed as pivotal, imparting the power to redefine Germany’s role on the European stage. With Merz acknowledging the significant geopolitical responsibilities at hand, the urgency to act quickly and decisively cannot be overstated.
Political analysts are eyeing how the CDU and SPD will balance their competing priorities, hoping they can rise above the tendency for mediocrity. The stakes are high, both for Germany’s internal stability and its contributions to continental defense and integration, positioning the country as both leader and stabilizer at this unpredictable juncture.
To conclude, the post-election period will be markedly consequential, and how Merz and his coalition navigate these waters may very well set the tone for not only Germany's future but also the broader European response to current global threats and challenges.