Ontario's Premier Doug Ford has sparked significant debate and concern across the Canadian political spectrum with his recent threat to cut off energy exports to the United States if President-elect Donald Trump proceeds with proposed tariffs against Canadian goods. During discussions among the provincial premiers and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Ford unveiled his contentious plan, which he insists is necessary to protect the economic interests of Ontarians.
Ford articulated his stance firmly, stating, "What we're sending is a message to the U.S.: You come and attack Ontario, you attack the livelihoods of the people of Ontario and Canadians, we're going to use every tool in our toolbox to defend Ontarians and Canadians across the border." This pronouncement reflects his determination to retaliate against any perceived economic aggression, setting the stage for what could escalate tensions between the two neighboring countries.
The threat is particularly pressing as Trump has announced intentions to impose significant tariffs on Canadian imports, with figures cited as high as 25 percent. These tariffs could severely damage Ontario's economy, which relies heavily on trade with the U.S. According to Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator, the province exported nearly 12,126 gigawatt hours of electricity to the U.S. last year, predominantly powering homes across key states like Michigan and New York.
Ford underscored the potential consequences of his plan by emphasizing the financial impact on U.S. states dependent on Ontario energy. "It’s hundreds of millions of dollars worth of valuable energy they could not secure within months," he noted, indicating his belief the U.S. would struggle to quickly replace Ontario's electricity supply if cut off. The gravity of his claims was echoed by Ontario's energy minister, Stephen Lecce, who stated, "It will hurt them more than us. We have to build up options to maximize pressure on the U.S., should it get there."
Despite Ford’s tough rhetoric, Trump's response to the threats was surprisingly dismissive. While ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, he said, "That's okay if he does [cut off exports]. That's fine. We shouldn't have to [subsidize Canada]." This statement, referencing the estimated $64 billion U.S. trade deficit with Canada, highlights the complexity of economic relations, wherein the U.S. relies on Canadian energy and resources even as it accuses Canada of unfair trade practices.
Ford has reiterated his view of the U.S. as allies, commenting, "I don't want to fight with the U.S.,” indicating he desires to maintain healthy economic ties. Nevertheless, his threat to withhold electricity supply marks a sharp pivot from collaborative diplomacy toward confrontation. The Premier has labeled the energy export cessation as a "last resort" but insists it is on the table if necessary.
Interestingly, reactions within Canada have been mixed, with some premiers disagreeing with Ford's hardline approach. Notably, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith criticized the tactic, stating unequivocally, "Under no circumstances will Alberta cut off oil and gas exports to the U.S." Her position leans toward diplomacy rather than direct confrontation, highlighting the differing strategies among Canada’s regions.
Political analysts caution against the potential chaos such tactics might incite. Carleton University's Daniel Rosenbloom expressed concern about the escalation of trade hostilities, arguing, "If we go after the Americans with a stick, is this actually going to get the response we expect?" The possibility of retaliation spiraling out of control could hinder long-term cooperation and stability.
Supporters of Ford’s strategy argue it is about showing strength and resilience against U.S. pressures. Alexandra Mallett, another expert from Carleton University, noted, "Ford is pursuing a 'tit for tat' approach with his energy threats, trying to communicate to Trump, 'I'm tough, you can't mess with me.'" Conversely, she warns about the unpredictability of such strategies sparking unnecessary conflict.
The situation remains fluid as the Ford government also contemplates other retaliatory measures if pushed against the wall. Potential actions could include capping exports of minerals, barring U.S. companies from provincial contracts, and even targeting U.S.-origin products like American-made alcohol at the LCBO, Ontario's liquor control board.
Ford's high-stakes gambit raises larger questions about the future of Canada-U.S. relations, especially with Trump’s administration targeted on trade imbalances and border security. Trudeau's recent meeting with the premiers aimed at discussing these tariffs shows the urgency and seriousness of handling the economic resistance, especially as Ford charts this turbulent course.
For now, Ontario's energy exports to the U.S. hang precariously in the balance, waiting to see how Trump’s administration will approach its trade policies with Canada and whether provincial leaders will continue down the contentious path of retaliation.
