In a surprising turn of events late Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran, potentially bringing an end to a tense 12-day conflict in the Middle East. The announcement sent ripples through global markets, with the cryptocurrency sector responding particularly enthusiastically. Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, surged and tested the $106,000 level within 24 hours following the news, marking a significant bullish momentum in an otherwise volatile market.
Bitcoin’s current price stands at approximately $105,186, reflecting a 7.5% gain over the past day. The total market capitalization of Bitcoin has reached an impressive $2.09 trillion, supported by a 24-hour trading volume of $52.58 billion. This surge represents a strong reversal from Bitcoin’s recent downtrend, suggesting renewed investor confidence amid the easing geopolitical tensions.
Technical analysis reveals crucial support and resistance levels that traders are closely monitoring. The first key support level is at $104,634, with additional supports at $102,593, $99,562, and $98,162. Should Bitcoin’s price dip below these support points, it could trigger a deeper correction, potentially pushing the price below the psychologically important $100,000 mark. On the upside, resistance levels are identified at $106,048, $107,724, and $108,921. Breaking through these resistances could pave the way for further gains in the upcoming trading sessions.
Despite the current bullish momentum, some analysts urge caution. Crypto analyst Luca, known for his detailed Elliott Wave analyses, warns that Bitcoin might still face a significant correction before resuming its upward trajectory. According to Luca’s Elliott Wave count, Bitcoin is completing a Wave 2 correction within a broader bullish trend, with a potential final leg dropping the price toward $94,000. This level aligns with both the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement and a key support zone, making it a critical point to watch.
Such a decline from the current $105,574 price would represent an 11.3% drop, which could temporarily slow Bitcoin’s momentum and test market resilience. However, Luca remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, predicting that after this correction, the cryptocurrency will enter Wave 3—a phase typically characterized by the steepest and most aggressive price surges. He envisions Bitcoin potentially soaring past $122,000 during this wave, signaling a strong bullish reversal and new all-time highs.
Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market is showing intriguing signs of shifting dynamics. Since April 2025, the crypto market has rallied, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in May. Yet, altcoins—the diverse range of cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin—have largely lagged behind, failing to approach their previous peak levels.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD), which measures Bitcoin’s market share relative to the entire crypto market, experienced a notable decline from 65.38% to 61.89% between May 7 and 14, 2025. However, BTCD rebounded to a new cycle high of 65.95% by June 22. This week, BTCD has fallen again and risks closing below the 65.30% mark, a critical resistance level from previous highs. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have generated bearish divergences, signaling potential weakness in Bitcoin’s market dominance.
If BTCD breaks below its ascending support trend line, it could confirm a bearish deviation and open the door for altcoins to gain ground, potentially marking the start of an altcoin season. Supporting this possibility, the Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) is showing decisive bullish signs. The market cap has completed a five-wave upward movement followed by a corrective W-X-Y pattern ending at the 0.618 Fibonacci level—an important retracement point in technical analysis.
If this analysis holds, ALTCAP has finished its correction and begun a new upward trend, with an initial target of $1.55 trillion. Although some technical indicators like RSI and MACD remain below neutral thresholds, they are close to breaking their corrective trend lines, hinting at an imminent rally. Additionally, the altcoin dominance chart has been declining since December 2024 but trades within a descending wedge pattern, widely regarded as bullish. A breakout from this wedge could extend altcoin dominance to at least 8.80%, further signaling a shift in market dynamics.
Altcoins’ underperformance relative to Bitcoin throughout 2025 has cast doubt on the onset of an altcoin season. Yet, recent chart patterns and market movements suggest a promising change may be underway. If Bitcoin’s dominance continues to decline while altcoin market caps and dominance breakout, investors might witness a period of significant altcoin outperformance.
For traders and investors, these developments underscore the importance of closely monitoring key technical levels and market indicators. Bitcoin’s current support and resistance zones will be critical in determining whether its recent bullish momentum can sustain or if a deeper correction looms. Similarly, shifts in Bitcoin dominance and altcoin market cap could signal broader trends, guiding portfolio adjustments and trading strategies.
The geopolitical backdrop, notably the ceasefire between Israel and Iran brokered by President Trump, adds an extra layer of complexity and opportunity. Historically, geopolitical stability tends to boost investor confidence, and the crypto market’s upbeat response reflects this pattern. However, the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies demands vigilance and prudent risk management.
In sum, the crypto market stands at a pivotal crossroads. Bitcoin’s recent surge above $105,000, potential for a short-term correction to $94,000, and the prospect of a powerful Wave 3 rally all paint a picture of dynamic possibilities. Concurrently, altcoins are showing early signs of resurgence that could redefine market leadership in the near term. As always, investors should weigh these technical signals alongside broader economic and geopolitical developments to navigate the exciting yet unpredictable crypto landscape ahead.
