In a dramatic week for Chinese politics, the Fourth Plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party convened in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025, against a backdrop of unprecedented military purges and rising questions about the country’s political future. The meeting, which brought together approximately 370 of China’s top officials, was officially tasked with charting the nation’s next five-year plan. Yet, the shadow of President Xi Jinping’s latest anti-corruption crackdown—and the absence of any clear succession plan—loomed large over the proceedings, stirring uncertainty both at home and abroad.
Just days before the plenum opened, China’s state media delivered a bombshell: nine generals, including seven of Xi’s oldest military confidants from Fujian province, had been purged for what the People's Liberation Army Daily described as “gravely violating Party discipline and are suspected of serious duty-related crimes involving extraordinarily large sums, with conduct of an extremely severe nature and extremely vile impact.” This sweeping action, reported by Newsweek, slashed the Central Military Commission (CMC) to just four members—including Xi himself—marking the smallest such body since the days of Mao Zedong.
For many observers, the timing and scale of the purge sent a clear message: Xi’s campaign against corruption, now in its thirteenth year, is far from over, and the president is willing to go after even those closest to him. The move also raises a critical question, as analyst K. Tristan Tang of the Jamestown Foundation put it: “If Xi Jinping can no longer trust the confidants who came up with him ... who can he still trust?” It’s a question that reverberates through the halls of power in Beijing and among China-watchers around the world.
The Fourth Plenum itself was officially focused on the nuts and bolts of governance—household spending, old-age care, and robotics, among other topics. But, as The New York Times noted, one subject remained conspicuously off the agenda: the matter of who might succeed Xi Jinping. Since coming to power in late 2012, Xi has systematically dismantled the mechanisms that once ensured regular leadership transitions in China. He scrapped the two-term limit for presidents, eliminated mandatory retirement ages for top politicians, and has shown no sign of grooming a successor. At 72, Xi is still younger than some of his international counterparts, and his rhetoric and policies suggest ambitions that stretch well beyond the current five-year plan, aiming for 2035 and possibly further.
“I’m pretty confident he will [see this next five-year plan through to completion],” said Chris Buckley, a veteran China correspondent for The New York Times. “And when we look at Xi’s rhetoric and his policies, they speak to ambitions and a vision for China that covers 2035 and beyond. That’s a signal that, health permitting, he would like to stick around.”
This lack of succession planning is no accident. As Buckley explained, “Once you name a successor, people’s attention and perhaps even their loyalty begin to drift. Some people may think it’s entirely cynical, but there is a strong current in Xi that believes he is a man of destiny, that he is a leader who has been appointed at a time of opportunity and danger to ensure that China and the Communist Party survive and thrive.”
Xi’s approach stands in stark contrast to his immediate predecessors. Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin both stepped down after roughly a decade in power, and Hu, in particular, was seen as encouraging a more collective, rules-driven, and predictable leadership model. Xi, however, has reversed this trend, consolidating power to a degree not seen since Mao’s era. The reduction of the Central Military Commission to just four members is emblematic of this shift. Under Mao, the commission had five members; under Hu and Jiang, it swelled to 11, reflecting a broader base of political interests. Now, under Xi, the narrowing of the CMC signals a remarkable concentration of authority.
This centralization, coupled with the ongoing purges, has sparked debate among experts about the true extent of Xi’s power. Some see signs of vulnerability, pointing to economic missteps and growing discontent with authoritarian rule. Others argue that the purges are evidence of Xi’s determination to root out potential rivals and solidify his grip on the party, the military, and the state. As Newsweek summarized, “Experts remain deeply divided on whether Xi is as powerful as he once was, with some seeing challenges to his leadership which is perceived as having bungled the economy and become too authoritarian, while others see a consolidation of his power in the ongoing purges.”
Still, the absence of any clear successor is raising concerns about long-term stability. “At the moment, Xi is so powerful and there doesn’t seem to be any sign of him stepping down any time soon,” Buckley observed. “But say five, 10 years hence, people inside the system might start thinking more about the long-term stability of this arrangement and wondering whether by pushing off this process, Xi is sowing the seeds of potential instability.” The refusal of old leaders to cede power has echoes in Soviet history, where such reluctance arguably hastened the USSR’s collapse—a lesson Xi is said to take seriously.
Despite the gerontocratic tilt at the top, there is some generational renewal happening in the lower ranks. As The New York Times pointed out, “The leadership is now cultivating and promoting officials who were born in the 1970s. There are young officials in their 40s, even their 30s, emerging into powerful positions at the provincial and city level. So there’s an awareness of the need for generational replenishment—as long as that doesn’t apply to Xi Jinping.”
As the plenum wrapped up, all eyes turned to the official read-out, with analysts poring over every word for hints about China’s political trajectory. Would Xi signal an intent to remain in power beyond 2027, breaking yet another political norm? Or would he finally begin to lay the groundwork for a transfer of authority? For now, the answer remains elusive. What is clear, however, is that the combination of high-level purges, a shrinking circle of trusted advisers, and the absence of a succession plan is making the view from the top lonelier than ever for Xi Jinping.
While the world watches China’s internal maneuverings, other nations are also experiencing political firsts. On October 21, 2025, Japan elected Sanae Takaichi as its first female prime minister—a historic milestone that, while unrelated to the drama unfolding in Beijing, highlights the shifting political landscape across East Asia.
For China, the coming years promise continued uncertainty. As trade tensions with the United States intensify and military ambitions simmer—especially regarding Taiwan—the stakes of leadership decisions in Beijing have never been higher. Whether Xi’s consolidation of power will bring stability or sow discord remains the “forbidden question” at the heart of Chinese politics.
In the end, the Fourth Plenum offered few answers but underscored a central reality: in Xi Jinping’s China, the future is more tightly controlled—and more unpredictable—than ever before.