On July 16, 2026, a scandal broke in Washington that has sent ripples throughout the corridors of power and the rapidly growing world of online prediction markets. Gabriel Perez, a longtime White House staffer and the trusted teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump, was revealed to have used privileged, non-public government information to place lucrative bets on the prediction market Kalshi, according to reports from ABC, CNN, and Yonhap News.
Perez, who has worked closely with Trump for a decade, held a unique position in the administration. As the person responsible for managing and operating the president’s teleprompter, Perez was among the select few with early access to the final drafts of Trump’s speeches—drafts that were frequently revised until the very last moment. According to CNN, "he was one of the few staff who could preview the final text." This insider access, as it turns out, provided Perez with an unfair advantage in the fast-growing world of prediction markets, where participants wager on the outcomes of political and social events.
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in popularity in recent years, allowing users to bet on everything from the timing of U.S. military strikes in places like Iran, to the specific words or phrases public figures might use in their speeches—a subset of the industry known as 'mention markets.' These platforms, as reported by ABC and CNN, have become a kind of financial crystal ball for those with the nerve and, in some cases, the inside scoop to play them.
Perez’s activities came to light after Kalshi’s own surveillance team flagged suspicious trading linked to his account. In a statement, Kalshi said, "Our monitoring team detected this (Perez’s) trading and referred it to the CFTC." The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates futures and options markets, is now investigating Perez for insider trading, though it has officially declined to confirm the probe.
According to multiple sources cited by ABC and CNN, Perez reportedly made nearly $100,000 (approximately 150 million KRW) in profits by betting on the very words and phrases President Trump would say—bets that, for most, would be a matter of guesswork, but for Perez, were a matter of privileged knowledge. His position at the White House came with a hefty annual salary of $175,000 (about 250 million KRW), already placing him among the higher-paid staffers, but the lure of easy money from prediction markets proved irresistible.
White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt, addressing the growing controversy, announced on July 16 that Perez had been placed on unpaid leave, stating, "It was a presidential decision." This swift move from the White House underscores the seriousness with which the administration is treating the breach, even as questions swirl about how deep the problem might go.
Indeed, as CNN and Yonhap News have pointed out, the Perez case may just be the tip of the iceberg. While Perez’s edge came from advance knowledge of Trump’s speeches, broader allegations of insider trading have surfaced involving not just speech drafts but also sensitive information related to Trump’s social media activity and even U.S. military operations. The scope of these suspicions reaches beyond the White House, with military officials and their spouses reportedly under scrutiny for similar activities.
One particularly striking example occurred in April 2026, when a U.S. soldier was arrested for allegedly using classified information about a planned operation to oust Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro. That individual reportedly netted about $400,000 on Polymarket, another major prediction platform, by betting on the outcome of the covert mission. This incident, much like the Perez case, highlights the vulnerabilities of prediction markets when participants have access to privileged or classified information.
Kalshi’s proactive detection of Perez’s trades has been lauded by some as a sign that the industry is taking its responsibilities seriously. However, the CFTC’s refusal to confirm the investigation has left many wondering about the broader regulatory landscape. According to ABC, Perez is currently negotiating a settlement with the CFTC, offering to return his illicit earnings in exchange for leniency. The Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s office, meanwhile, has reportedly decided not to pursue criminal charges, a decision that has sparked debate over whether the punishment fits the crime.
Insider trading is a well-known problem in traditional financial markets, but its appearance in the world of prediction markets is relatively new—and potentially more difficult to police. Unlike stock or commodity markets, where trades are tied to well-defined securities, prediction markets operate in a gray area, with bets placed on everything from political speeches to military maneuvers. This makes detecting and proving insider trading a thorny challenge for regulators and platform operators alike.
The White House, for its part, has reportedly issued warnings to staff to avoid speculative trading of any kind, not just in prediction markets but also in stocks and oil futures. Yonhap News reported that unusual trading activity was detected in the run-up to some of Trump’s major announcements, prompting the administration to remind employees of their ethical obligations and the potential consequences of crossing the line.
As the story continues to unfold, it raises difficult questions about the intersection of technology, finance, and public service. Should government officials and those with access to sensitive information be barred entirely from participating in prediction markets? How can regulators keep pace with the rapid evolution of these platforms, especially as they become more sophisticated and attract greater sums of money?
For now, the Perez case stands as a cautionary tale for both government workers and the burgeoning prediction market industry. It’s a reminder that in the age of instant information and high-stakes betting, the temptation to profit from a privileged perch is ever-present—and the risks, both legal and ethical, are growing just as fast.
The coming months will likely see further scrutiny of prediction markets and the people who participate in them, especially those with access to the halls of power. Whether this leads to stricter rules, new technology for detecting insider trading, or simply more headlines, one thing is clear: the boundaries between politics, finance, and technology are blurrier than ever.
In a city where secrets are currency and timing is everything, the story of Gabriel Perez is a stark illustration of what can happen when those lines are crossed.