For Americans longing for a white Christmas in 2025, the answer to that perennial holiday question—will there be snow on the ground come December 25?—depends very much on where you plan to spend the festivities. According to a flurry of recent forecasts from The Weather Company, AccuWeather, and other meteorological authorities, the odds are stacking up in favor of a classic winter wonderland in some regions, while others may have to settle for dreams of snow rather than the real thing.
The official meteorological definition of a white Christmas is precise: there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Falling snow later in the day, no matter how picturesque, doesn’t count. This year, as in years past, the regions with the highest likelihood of meeting this frosty standard are the northern tier of the United States—including parts of the northern Midwest and the Great Lakes region—as well as the mountainous areas of the West such as the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and northern Rockies. As The Weather Company’s latest forecast map shows, these areas are shaded in dark teal, indicating the strongest chances for a snowy holiday.
But the forecast isn’t set in stone. Despite an unusually cold and snowy start to December in much of the Midwest and Northeast, a late-month warming trend is expected to sweep across much of the country, threatening to erase a good deal of the early snowpack before Christmas morning. As Weather.com reports, "First, a general warming trend is kicking off in much of the country that will last into Christmas week. That includes the snow-covered, recently cold Midwest." Meteorologists expect that while cold fronts will still pass through, they will be shorter-lived and mostly confined to the northernmost states, allowing existing snow cover to erode in many areas.
Springfield, Illinois, stands out as a city that’s already made history this winter. By mid-December, it had recorded 18.9 inches of snow—its snowiest start to winter since 1893. Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, too, is already near its full seasonal snowfall average, an impressive feat considering there’s still plenty of winter left. Cities like Cleveland, Detroit, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, have experienced one of their coldest first halves of December on record, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Yet, even in these snow-laden locales, the looming warmup could spell trouble for those hoping to wake up to a blanket of white on Christmas Day.
According to AccuWeather, the central and northern Rockies remain the safest bets for a white Christmas, with the higher elevations from Wyoming and Montana down through Utah and Colorado nearly guaranteed to have at least an inch of snow on the ground. "The central and northern Rockies are once again the safest bet, areas where a white Christmas is almost a guarantee every year," AccuWeather’s Anna Azallion explained. Areas near the Great Lakes and higher elevations in the Appalachians and New England also have a better-than-average chance of snow cover, thanks to persistent cold and typical lake-effect snow bands.
For the Northeast, and especially cities along the I-95 corridor—including New York City and Philadelphia—the situation is more uncertain. Weather.com noted, "Any chance for a New York City or Philly white Christmas may be ticking back down again." A pair of weather systems could bring snow, sleet, or ice to the region in the week before Christmas, but the first is likely to keep most of its modest snow north of the city, and the second may not arrive until after the holiday. Last year, New York’s Central Park recorded its first white Christmas in 15 years, but this year, the odds seem less favorable, though some last-minute surprises are possible.
Rochester, New York, offers a hopeful case study for snow lovers. AccuWeather predicts a greater than 75% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Christmas Day, thanks to its location downwind of the Great Lakes and within a typical lake-effect snowbelt. Cold temperatures in the Northeast should help preserve snow cover in parts of the region, even as other areas see a thaw. Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert, told the Democrat and Chronicle, "A storm could bring a fresh burst of snow just in time for Christmas morning. The exact track of the storm will determine which areas could be blanketed in fresh snow, and which towns could be soaked by rain instead. At this time, it looks like areas north of Interstate 80 could see some snow."
Historically, Rochester has a 56% chance of a white Christmas, based on National Weather Service records since 1926. In the past decade, the city has seen five white Christmases, including just two of the last five years. The region’s weather is famously fickle—recall 2002, when more than a foot of snow fell on Christmas Day, or 2023, when temperatures soared to a balmy 57 degrees for a decidedly green holiday.
For much of the eastern two-thirds of the country, the forecast is less promising. The Weather Company and AccuWeather both expect minimal new snowfall outside areas near the Canadian border and the Great Lakes snowbelts. The West, on the other hand, is poised to receive continued snowfall through Christmas, particularly in the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and northern Rockies. These mountain regions, which saw their snowpack depleted earlier in the season by record warmth and rain, should see a rebound, much to the delight of skiers and holiday travelers.
There’s still hope for a last-minute twist. AccuWeather’s Paul Pastelok points to a potential winter storm moving through the central and eastern U.S. between December 23 and 25, which could deliver a late surge of snow to select areas. "All eyes will be on a storm between Dec. 23-25," he said. "The track could determine a late surge for some snow." However, he cautioned that the storm’s path remains uncertain, and it may bring rain instead of snow to areas south of Interstate 80. Even if the storm ends with rain, some regions could see snow showers or flurries afterward, which, while perhaps not enough to meet the official one-inch requirement, could still help set the festive mood.
Comparing this year to last, the experts agree that the Christmas 2025 snow cover could look strikingly similar to 2024, when only about 26% of the U.S. had snow on the ground on Christmas morning, according to NOAA. Localized surprises are always possible, and as forecasters are quick to remind, the details may still shift in the days ahead. But the overall pattern—a snowy north and west, a thawing Midwest and East—appears likely to hold.
So, whether you’re planning to spend Christmas in the Rockies, the Great Lakes, or hoping for a miracle along the I-95 corridor, keep your eyes on the forecast. A white Christmas may be elusive for many, but for those in the right place at the right time, the magic of waking up to a snowy holiday morning is still very much alive.
