As autumn settles over Eastern Europe, the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, marked by shifting strategies, mounting casualties, and renewed diplomatic urgency. At the Warsaw Security Forum on September 26, 2025, a gathering of senior Western officials and defense experts delivered a clear verdict: despite the ongoing bloodshed, Russia is not winning the war. The event, widely covered by The Guardian and National Security Journal, offered a candid assessment of the battlefield, the political stakes, and the path forward for Ukraine and its allies.
U.S. Special Envoy Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, fresh from a trip to Ukraine, addressed a packed hall in Warsaw with a message that cut through the fog of war. "Russia is not winning this war. Russia has not crossed the Dnieper River, has not taken Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odesa. They have managed to take parts of Lugansk, Donetsk, and Zaporozhye," Kellogg stated, according to National Security Journal. His words were backed by stark numbers: approximately one million casualties on both sides, a scale of loss not seen in Europe since the Second World War.
Kellogg’s analysis was more than just military arithmetic. He described the human cost—children sheltering in subway stations, a population refusing to yield. "The Ukrainians are incredibly indomitable. But the bottom line is that this is a major war that needs to be brought to a close," he said. Despite the devastation, Kellogg emphasized the resilience and unity of the Ukrainian public, noting their unwavering determination in the face of adversity.
Other speakers at the forum echoed Kellogg’s realism. Former U.K. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace cautioned against wishful thinking and the assumption that adversaries act logically. "The first lesson is we must look at the world not as we wish it to be, but in the way it is," Wallace remarked, recalling the early days of the invasion when some European governments hesitated even to send non-lethal aid for fear of provoking Moscow. "That mindset—that our adversaries are the same as us, that they will act logically—is dangerous," he warned.
Wallace’s prescription was unapologetically hard-edged. He argued that the West must help Ukraine develop the long-range capabilities needed to make Crimea "unviable" for Russia. "We need to choke the life out of Crimea," Wallace insisted, calling for Germany to supply Taurus cruise missiles and advocating strikes on key infrastructure, including the Kerch Bridge, which he described as "a statue to Putin’s ego." In Wallace’s view, only by convincing President Vladimir Putin that Crimea is a liability rather than a prize can the calculus in Moscow be changed.
Thórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörd Gylfadóttir, former Icelandic foreign minister and now the Council of Europe’s special envoy on the situation of children of Ukraine, offered a blunt assessment of Western support for Kyiv. "When we talk about the support for Ukraine… we should maybe just call it what it is. It is a Russia tax," she said, as reported by The Guardian. Gylfadóttir argued that the costs borne by Europe are a direct consequence of Moscow’s aggression: "Russia has put a tax on Europe, and we just have to pay for it. If Russia wasn’t out of control, we would not have to be doing what we’re doing." Her remarks underscored the political realities facing Western governments, where public support for military aid is weighed against domestic concerns and economic pressures.
On the ground, the military situation remains dynamic and deadly. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on September 29, 2025, initiating the fall conscription cycle to draft 135,000 Russian citizens for 12 months of mandatory service. Russian officials, including Vice Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky, have insisted that these conscripts will serve only on Russian territory and not be deployed to active combat zones in Ukraine or occupied areas. Yet, the steady increase in conscription numbers since 2022 suggests a growing strain on Russia’s military resources. Conscripts typically serve in border security roles in regions like Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk, but after their year of service, they become reservists—potentially swelling the pool of manpower available for future call-ups.
Despite the Kremlin’s public assurances, there are persistent reports of Russian officials pressuring conscripts to sign contracts that would allow their deployment to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia is also forming an active strategic reserve, a move analysts believe is designed to streamline future mobilizations in the face of mounting losses and battlefield attrition.
The financial toll of the war is equally staggering. The Kremlin’s draft budget for 2026-2028, submitted to the State Duma in late September, earmarks 17 trillion rubles (about $183 billion) for national security and defense in 2026—roughly 38 percent of total annual expenditures. Although this marks a slight decrease from 2025, it reflects a sustained commitment to military spending, even as Russia’s economy faces declining revenues from oil and gas. Notably, the budget allocates significant funds for compensation to wounded servicemembers and the families of those killed, as well as increased spending on state-controlled television and propaganda, a likely response to recent restrictions on social media and internet access within Russia.
As for the battlefield, both sides continue to launch and repel offensives across a sprawling front. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian defense plant in Bryansk Oblast with Neptune missiles, halting operations at the site. Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts have yielded incremental gains, but no decisive breakthroughs. Ukrainian drone strikes have downed Russian helicopters, and drone and missile attacks have targeted both military and civilian infrastructure. In one particularly notable incident, Russian drone strikes damaged the Polish embassy and EU vehicles in Kyiv, drawing international condemnation and underscoring the risk of escalation beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Diplomatically, the United States has signaled a willingness to allow Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory, according to Kellogg’s statements on Fox News. This policy shift comes amid Kremlin efforts to deter the U.S. from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, with Russian officials warning of escalatory consequences. However, Western analysts point out that previous deliveries of advanced weaponry—such as HIMARS and F-16s—did not trigger the massive escalations Moscow had threatened, suggesting that the Kremlin’s "red lines" may be more rhetorical than real.
The political landscape in the region remains volatile. In Moldova, pro-European parties secured a parliamentary majority in September elections, prompting Kremlin-linked politicians to allege fraud and call for protests—a familiar pattern in Russia’s efforts to exert influence in neighboring states.
Back in Warsaw, the mood among Western officials was one of sober determination. As Kellogg put it, "We want to get to a place where the killing stops because the level of the killing is at industrial strength." The consensus is clear: Russia is not on the verge of victory, but neither will the conflict end without sustained, and possibly escalatory, Western support for Ukraine. The coming months will test not only the endurance of Ukrainian defenders but also the resolve of their allies in Washington, London, Brussels, and beyond.
For now, the war’s outcome remains uncertain. But as the leaves fall on another season of conflict, the message from Warsaw is unmistakable: the world is watching, and the stakes could hardly be higher.