There’s a familiar refrain in American politics: when Democrats lose, some strategists and pundits quickly blame the party’s association with transgender rights. But the results of the 2025 elections have upended that narrative, revealing the limits—and even electoral risks—of making anti-transgender rhetoric a central campaign theme.
After the 2016 election, as reported by multiple outlets, a chorus of center-right Democrats and some Republican consultants pointed fingers at transgender issues as a supposed liability for Democrats. This argument resurfaced after Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, which made transgender people the “number-one focus in paid advertising,” according to detailed post-election analyses. Republican strategists looked to Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s narrow 2021 win—where he spotlighted transgender youth in schools—as proof that the issue could tip the scales in their favor.
Armed with this playbook, Republicans entered the 2025 cycle confident. In Virginia, GOP gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears spent a striking 57 percent of her advertising budget on anti-transgender ads. She routinely attempted to pivot media interviews toward Abigail Spanberger’s prior support for transgender rights, believing this would sway undecided voters. Republicans outside Virginia followed suit, albeit with less intensity.
But the results told a different story. On November 5, 2025, Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia governor’s race by nearly 15 points—a landslide nearly twice the margin by which Republican Ed Gillespie lost in 2017. Ghazala Hashmi, a Muslim woman, captured the lieutenant governor’s office by more than 10 points, and Jay Jones became attorney general by six points, despite controversy over past statements. Democrats swept every swing seat in the Virginia House, flipped six of 14 “lean R” districts, and expanded their majority from a razor-thin 51-49 split to a commanding 64-36 advantage. Every county in the state shifted bluer, defying predictions that anti-trans messaging would energize the Republican base.
Virginia wasn’t alone. In New York, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral race on November 4 by nine points, after campaigning on affordable housing, free public transportation, no-cost child care, raising the minimum wage, taxing the rich, and protecting LGBTQ+ people. According to Pride Source, Mamdani’s victory came with just over 50 percent of the vote, a testament to the appeal of bold, progressive policies. Meanwhile, Republican Jack Ciattarelli lost the New Jersey governor’s race by 13 points, and every Democratic justice in Pennsylvania won in a landslide.
What explains this blue wave? The answer, according to poll after poll, is that voters simply don’t prioritize transgender issues. A 2025 Gallup poll found that transgender rights ranked dead last among 22 issues, with just 18 percent of respondents describing it as “very important.” In Virginia, only 3 percent of those surveyed listed transgender issues as a top concern. By contrast, 79 percent of Virginians polled by Emerson identified the economy as their number-one priority. This pattern held nationwide, with voters citing the economy and cost of living as their chief worries.
Even on the specific question of which candidate would better handle transgender issues, voters preferred Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears by a 50–37 margin, according to a Christopher Newport University (CNU) poll. That’s despite Earle-Sears’s relentless focus on the topic. Perhaps most tellingly, 77 percent of voters see debates over transgender and nonbinary people as a distraction from more pressing concerns.
“The public doesn’t care about trans issues,” one post-election commentator summarized, referencing the Gallup and Virginia polls. “It is difficult to make a coherent case that Americans are basing their votes on an issue which most of them could not care less about.”
Instead, what voters do care about is the economy. In 2024, Trump capitalized on public discontent with inflation and promised sweeping improvements. But as economic conditions failed to improve under his watch, and with Republicans still hammering away at cultural wedge issues, voters in 2025 responded by punishing the GOP at the ballot box.
This shift has left some Democratic strategists scrambling. Figures like David Axelrod, James Carville, and David Plouffe—longtime party insiders—have advocated for moderating Democratic positions on immigration, public safety, energy, and “some identity and cultural issues.” According to Politico, their WelcomePAC report, “Deciding to Win,” calls for the party to “moderate our positions where our agenda is unpopular.” Yet, as critics point out, these calls for centrism come at a time when Republican policies are more extreme than ever—perpetuating racism, dehumanizing trans people, stripping reproductive rights, and worsening income inequality.
Some progressives argue that the answer isn’t to chase the rightward shift of the GOP, but to offer a clear alternative. As one Pride Source columnist put it, “It’s time to stop trying to find the sweet spot of transphobia and start condemning it altogether.” Mamdani’s campaign, which centered protecting LGBTQ+ people alongside economic justice, offers a case study in the electoral power of unapologetic progressivism.
For Democrats, the lesson from 2025 is clear: it’s possible to reassure and protect marginalized communities without sacrificing electoral viability. When pressed on so-called “hard” issues, Democratic candidates can pivot to tried-and-true messaging. On transgender athletes, for example, one recommended response is, “The government shouldn’t be involved in deciding who gets to play second grade soccer for a plastic participation trophy. For competitions where something more is at stake, sporting bodies already set medical standards that ensure fair competition and maximize inclusion, and we should follow those.” On health care for transgender youth, Democrats can echo their messaging on abortion: “The government should stay out of complicated medical decisions that should be between doctors, parents, and patients.”
From there, it’s easy to steer the conversation back to core voter concerns. “These issues affect a very small number of people. What my constituents want to know is how am I going to bring home jobs? They want to feel secure and ensure that they can pay for food and a place to live. This is why I ...”—and then pivot to economic policy. The data shows that voters overwhelmingly want to hear about jobs, wages, and the cost of living, not culture war skirmishes.
Ironically, some of the same Democratic consultants blaming transgender issues for past losses—like Carville, who coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid”—now find themselves at odds with the empirical evidence. According to Pride Source, Republicans mentioned LGBTQ issues in their campaign emails at twice the rate of Democrats, and spent millions on anti-trans advertising, only to see their efforts backfire.
The 2025 elections have made one thing abundantly clear: Americans are focused on their wallets, not on divisive culture wars. Politicians who ignore this reality do so at their own peril. As the dust settles, both parties will have to reckon with what voters are truly demanding—and it isn’t more scapegoating or fearmongering.
For now, the results speak for themselves: bold progressive policies, not anti-trans rhetoric, won the day.
