On December 26, 2025, Vietnam’s financial markets delivered a whirlwind of surprises, leaving investors and analysts alike scrambling for answers. The VN-Index, the country’s main stock market benchmark, plummeted by more than 40 points, tumbling below the psychological threshold of 1,700 points by 10:30 AM. This sharp decline came hot on the heels of a major announcement from Vingroup, one of Vietnam’s most influential conglomerates. According to VietnamFinance, Vingroup withdrew its investment registration from the ambitious North-South high-speed railway project, a move that sent shockwaves through the market and cast a shadow over the country’s infrastructure ambitions.
Vingroup’s decision, while initially alarming to investors, was accompanied by a rationale that shed light on the group’s strategic priorities. The company stated that the withdrawal was intended to "focus resources on priority infrastructure projects," among which the most notable is an Olympic sports urban area in Hanoi. This urban zone is no small feat—it’s planned to cover more than 9,000 hectares and will include a stadium boasting a staggering capacity of up to 135,000 seats. While this pivot may signal long-term gains for the conglomerate, the immediate effect on Vingroup’s stock was decidedly negative. The group’s shares, along with other Vin-branded equities, dragged down the broader market, underscoring just how much sway Vingroup holds over investor sentiment in Vietnam.
But while Vingroup’s retreat from the high-speed rail project dominated headlines and sent its stock tumbling, not all sectors were caught in the downdraft. In a striking contrast, steel stocks—particularly those of Hoa Phat Group (HPG) and Pomina Steel (POM)—soared. According to VietnamFinance, HPG shares leapt over 3.5%, reaching 27,700 VND per share. What’s more, trading volume for HPG exploded, surpassing 60 million units by mid-morning—an increase of 20 million units above the company’s 50-session average. This surge was not merely a fluke of market emotion; it was underpinned by robust performance data and sector-specific developments.
The Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) reported that in the first eleven months of 2025, Hoa Phat’s steel consumption rose by 4% compared to the same period in 2024. This steady growth, while modest, is notable given the headwinds facing the construction sector. Analysts from Chứng khoán Vietcap told VietnamFinance that “unfavorable weather conditions have only slowed construction activities in the short term,” suggesting that as weather improves, delayed projects could resume and reignite demand for steel in the first quarter of 2026. That’s a glimmer of hope for investors looking beyond the current market volatility.
Drilling down further, the steel sector’s resilience was especially visible in the hot-rolled coil (HRC) segment. In November 2025, HRC sales more than doubled compared to November 2024, despite a 17% month-on-month decline attributed to a high base in October. This year-on-year surge was driven by two main factors: the new contributions from the Dung Quat 2 project (both phases one and two) and supportive trade protection measures—specifically, the AD20 safeguard against narrow-width HRC imports from China. Cumulatively, Hoa Phat’s HRC sales volume skyrocketed by 64% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, reaching nearly 4.5 million tons. That’s a remarkable feat in a market often buffeted by global supply chain disruptions and shifting trade policies.
Not to be outdone, Pomina Steel’s stock (POM) delivered its own fireworks. POM shares hit the ceiling price, with buy orders exceeding 4.6 million units—an impressive show of investor confidence. What’s fueling this rally? According to VietnamFinance, since Vingroup extended a zero-interest loan to Pomina Steel, POM stock has consistently maintained its "purple" status, a colloquial term for hitting the daily price cap in Vietnam’s market. This is even more remarkable considering POM is currently subject to trading restrictions, with transactions permitted only on Fridays. For many, this unusual arrangement is a testament to the faith investors have in Pomina’s prospects, especially when backed by the financial heft of Vingroup.
While equities stole the spotlight, the money market was not immune to volatility. On December 25, 2025, the day before the stock market drama, the Vietnamese dong (VND) interbank overnight interest rate took a nosedive, falling sharply to 5.50% per year. The one-week term rate also dropped, settling at 6.70% per year, according to 24HMoney. In contrast, two-week and one-month term rates remained stable at 8.70% and 7.60% per year, respectively. The U.S. dollar (USD) interest rates, meanwhile, held steady for short-term maturities but crept up slightly for longer-term ones.
The State Bank of Vietnam made a notable move on the open market, offering 3,000 billion VND for each of the 14, 28, and 91-day terms. However, only 1,083 billion VND was successfully auctioned for the 91-day term. With around 2,324 billion VND maturing and no new treasury bills issued, the net result was a liquidity withdrawal of more than 1,240 billion VND. This maneuver suggests the central bank is treading carefully, balancing liquidity needs against inflationary pressures and currency stability.
The foreign exchange market also saw significant action. The central exchange rate slipped by 13 VND to 25,133 VND/USD on December 25, 2025, according to 24HMoney. The interbank exchange rate dropped sharply to 26,285 VND/USD, while the free market rate inched up to between 26,820 and 26,870 VND/USD. These fluctuations reflect ongoing uncertainty about global economic conditions, as well as domestic factors such as capital flows and policy adjustments.
For market watchers, the past two days have been a masterclass in how interconnected Vietnam’s financial ecosystem has become. A single corporate decision—Vingroup’s withdrawal from a marquee infrastructure project—rippled across equities, influencing not just its own shares but the broader VN-Index. Meanwhile, sector-specific strengths, such as the steel industry’s robust performance, provided a counterweight, highlighting the importance of diversification and sectoral analysis for investors.
In the currency and money markets, the State Bank’s cautious interventions and the shifting tides of exchange rates underscore the delicate balancing act required to maintain macroeconomic stability. As Vietnam continues to chart its path through a rapidly changing global environment, these market movements offer a window into the country’s evolving economic priorities and the resilience of its key industries.
With infrastructure ambitions being recalibrated, steel demand poised for a rebound, and monetary policy in a state of flux, Vietnam’s markets are anything but predictable. For investors and policymakers alike, staying nimble and informed has never been more essential.