In 2026, Vietnam’s real estate market stands at a crossroads, shaped by two powerful forces: the evolving global financial landscape and the country’s own ambitious push to establish international financial centers. As interest rates fluctuate and the US dollar faces new headwinds, both homebuyers and investors are recalibrating their strategies, bracing for a year that could redefine the property sector for years to come.
Wall Street’s biggest names—JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank—sounded the alarm on December 14, 2025, warning that the US Federal Reserve’s recent string of interest rate cuts could send the US dollar into a prolonged weakening cycle. According to reporting from 24HMoney, this marks a stark reversal from the dollar’s decade-long run of strength. The currency, which enjoyed a period of relative stability in the latter half of 2025, is now staring down a less optimistic outlook for 2026, with key supportive factors eroding and the risk of depreciation growing ever more apparent.
The Federal Reserve, in an effort to bolster economic growth amid a cooling labor market and inflation stubbornly above its 2% target, slashed interest rates three consecutive times in 2025. Market watchers now expect at least two more cuts in 2026, each by 0.25 percentage points. Meanwhile, other major central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have kept their monetary policies tight, even hinting at possible rate hikes. This divergence is prompting global capital to flow away from US dollar-denominated assets in search of better yields elsewhere.
"There are now more negative factors for the dollar than supporting ones," Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research at JPMorgan, told 24HMoney. Morgan Stanley’s analysts went further, projecting that the dollar could fall by as much as 5% in the first half of 2026. For some, this spells trouble—but for others, it’s an opportunity.
A weaker dollar could make US exports more competitive abroad, potentially narrowing the country’s trade deficit—a goal the US government has long pursued. Yet, the flip side is that imports become pricier, putting upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. For American companies with global operations, a softer dollar is a boon: foreign revenues, when converted back to dollars, look more impressive, boosting bottom lines. Emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real, South Korean won, and Chinese renminbi are among those expected to benefit most if the dollar’s slide continues. According to JPMorgan and Bank of America, “carry trade” strategies—borrowing in low-interest-rate dollars to invest in higher-yielding currencies—are yielding their best returns since 2009.
Not everyone is convinced the dollar’s era is over. Citigroup and Standard Chartered maintain a more upbeat outlook, arguing that the US economy will continue to outpace expectations in 2026, thanks in large part to surging investment in artificial intelligence and technology. “We see a high probability that the dollar will recover in 2026,” Citigroup’s analysts noted, citing the continued allure of the US stock and tech markets. This perspective gained traction after the Fed recently raised its economic growth forecast for 2026, even as it left the door open for further rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is treading carefully, weighing the risks of persistent inflation against signs that the labor market may be losing steam.
As Deutsche Bank analysts George Saravelos and Tim Baker pointed out, the dollar has ridden a wave of “surprisingly resilient” US economic performance and a booming stock market. But now, they warn, the currency is likely overvalued. “If these forecasts come true, the unusually long bull run for the dollar over the past decade could finally come to an end,” they emphasized. The interplay of global monetary policy and international capital flows in 2026, they argue, will be crucial in determining whether the dollar maintains its dominance or enters a steep correction not seen in years.
What does all this mean for Vietnam’s real estate market? Quite a lot, as it turns out. According to a comprehensive survey by Batdongsan.com.vn of over 1,000 consumers aged 18–44, the market is being shaped by both macroeconomic forces and local dynamics. Two main narratives will define 2026: the influence of International Finance Corporation (IFC) initiatives and the prevailing trends in interest rates.
The survey reveals a striking divide in attitudes and behaviors among young adults. An overwhelming 93% of respondents with families who rent homes intend to buy property within the next five years, despite acknowledging that high prices remain a formidable barrier. Remarkably, 86% are willing to take out bank loans covering 30–50% of their home’s value, reflecting a pragmatic embrace of financial leverage. The appetite for homeownership is especially pronounced in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), where 81% express plans to buy within five years—significantly higher than Hanoi’s 69%. The reason? HCMC boasts a greater supply of apartments priced below 3 billion VND, accounting for 21–31% of available inventory, compared to just 10% in Hanoi.
“High real estate prices are putting tremendous pressure on young people’s ability to own homes,” Le Bao Long, Marketing Director at Batdongsan.com.vn, explained to CafeF. Still, he noted, many are not giving in to pessimism. Instead, they’re tightening their belts, saving more, and adjusting their financial strategies to edge closer to their dream of homeownership. “Beyond individual effort, simplifying social housing procedures, making eligibility more transparent, and expanding the supply of reasonably priced homes will help young people shorten their path to settling down,” Long added.
For long-term renters, stability is the name of the game. Seventy-two percent spend less than 30% of their income on rent, and 34% plan to rent for three years or more. Investors are responding by focusing on quality, amenities, location, and a healthy living environment, aiming to create rental portfolios that offer stable, sustainable cash flows.
Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, highlighted a sharp divergence in price trends between Hanoi and HCMC. From 2023 to 2025, Hanoi saw housing prices jump 14%, 39%, and 13% respectively, while HCMC’s increases were a more modest 3%, 4%, and 5%. Notably, search interest in HCMC housing from Hanoi users soared 49% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. With central city supply still scarce, many young buyers are migrating to suburban areas, drawn by well-planned urban zones with full amenities and convenient transport links.
2025 was a year of lively activity, with a slew of new projects launching nationwide—especially in the South—spanning mid- to high-end segments. Projects with transparent legal status and reputable developers, particularly those near ring roads and integrated urban areas, are seeing brisk sales.
But the most transformative story may be the rise of international financial centers. HCMC is set to establish its IFC in Thu Thiem, while Da Nang will develop its own in the Hai Chau–Son Tra area. Vietnam is breaking new ground here, and Nguyen Quoc Anh points to the success stories of South Korea and China as instructive precedents. Korea, for instance, built a new IFC in Yeouido in 2003, attracting over 1,000 international financial institutions and creating up to 120,000 jobs within a decade. Similarly, Shanghai’s Pudong district became a global financial hub after China introduced special incentives and relaxed foreign ownership rules.
“IFC in Thu Thiem and Da Nang can absolutely become new central business districts if supported by strong enough policies,” Quoc Anh argued. “The success or failure of IFCs depends mainly on policy—a decisive factor in both Korea and China.”
Ultimately, as interest rates and global capital flows shift, Vietnam’s real estate market will need to adapt quickly. Whether the dollar’s long bull run is truly over or just pausing for breath, and whether IFCs can spur a new urban renaissance, 2026 promises to be a pivotal year for both property and finance in Vietnam.