The 2026 NFL season is shaping up to be a fascinating ride, with veteran quarterbacks finding new homes, rookies waiting in the wings, and teams betting big on both experience and potential. Nowhere is this more evident than in the AFC West, where the Denver Broncos face a gauntlet of proven signal-callers, and the Las Vegas Raiders embark on a transitional year with Kirk Cousins mentoring rookie Fernando Mendoza. Meanwhile, the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings are counting on seasoned arms to lead the way, and across the league, coaches and players are weighing the risks and rewards of bringing in established quarterbacks to jumpstart their franchises.
The Denver Broncos’ 2026 schedule reads like a who’s who of NFL quarterbacking. According to recent reports, the Broncos will square off against 14 different quarterbacks this season, including divisional mainstays Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers), and Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas Raiders). Mahomes, with a staggering 95 career wins, sits third among all quarterbacks the Broncos will face. Herbert brings 52 career victories to the table, while Cousins, now in silver and black, boasts 88 career wins—though rookie Fernando Mendoza is widely expected to take over as the Raiders’ starter at some point this fall.
“Kirk Cousins signed a 1-year deal with Las Vegas, knowing full well that the Raiders would be spending their #1 draft pick on their quarterback of the future in Fernando Mendoza,” noted a recent analysis of NFL offseason moves. The consensus is that Cousins’ primary role will be to shepherd Mendoza through the rigors of his rookie campaign, offering guidance both on and off the field.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix, who benefited from Cousins’ mentorship before the veteran’s move west, had high praise for his former teammate. “He’s always been great and the way that he does anything is how he does everything,” Penix told ESPN. “So, it’s like the person that he was for me, just helping me make sure I was locked in each and every day, make sure I understood some of the reads and some of the things that you would get in the league.”
While Cousins’ leadership is undoubted, his history as a winner is more mixed. Over 11 seasons as a regular starter, he has only posted significant winning records in two campaigns—10-5 in 2019 and 13-4 in 2022 with Minnesota. Playoff success has been elusive, but Cousins is regarded as one of the most respected locker room leaders in the NFL. With a receiving corps that includes promising talents like Brock Bowers, the Raiders hope that Cousins’ experience will help accelerate Mendoza’s development and perhaps even spark a surprise run.
The Broncos’ opening challenge is formidable: they kick off the season on Monday Night Football against Mahomes and the Chiefs. Denver’s record against the Chiefs’ superstar is sobering—just 2-13 since Mahomes entered the league. That’s a daunting stat for any team, let alone one looking to climb back into playoff contention. Yet, the Broncos’ schedule is packed with opportunity and peril, as they’ll also face Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams, 120 career wins), Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers, 163 wins), and Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills, 88 wins), among others.
At the other end of the experience spectrum sits Miami Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis, who has just six career starts and three wins. However, the Dolphins may soon turn to rookie Fernando Mendoza, should the Raiders hand over the reins to him early in the season. The quarterback carousel is spinning fast, and teams are hoping to strike the right balance between veteran savvy and youthful upside.
Elsewhere in the league, the New York Jets are welcoming back Geno Smith for his 13th season. Smith, who previously enjoyed success in Seattle, returns to the franchise where he began his career. “Smith threw for 3500+ yards in all three of his seasons as a starter in Seattle, so he is still capable of slinging it,” observed one analyst, though skepticism remains regarding his ability to transform the Jets into a playoff contender. The Jets have shored up their receiving corps, hoping Smith’s experience can help maximize the talents of Garrett Wilson and other young pass catchers.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are banking on Kyler Murray, fresh off seven seasons with the Arizona Cardinals. Murray’s tenure in Arizona was marked by highlight-reel plays and impressive stats, but postseason glory proved elusive. With Minnesota coming off a 9-8 campaign—down from 13-4 in 2024—the Vikings are hoping Murray’s dual-threat abilities can provide the spark they need to return to the NFC’s upper echelon.
But how do veteran quarterbacks fare when joining new teams? Historical data suggests caution. Over the last 11 seasons, 20 teams have brought in veteran quarterbacks with at least seven years of starting experience. Only a minority improved their win-loss records in the first year. A comprehensive analysis of 29 such quarterbacks since 2006—each starting at least eight games in their debut season with a new team—revealed a combined record of 212-209-1 straight up and 203-207-11 against the spread. Only 11 posted winning ATS records in their first year, and most teams failed to make significant leaps in the standings.
Betting trends reveal further nuance. Veteran quarterbacks tend to start slowly with new teams, especially in September, where they have gone 45-32-1 under the total since 2006. Interestingly, their fortunes often improve in October, both straight up and against the spread. However, the pressure of non-Sunday games and road matchups has proven challenging: veteran QBs are just 12-23-1 ATS on Monday Night Football and 31-50 ATS on the road since 2021. On the other hand, they shine as big home favorites, boasting a 68.3% ATS record when laying 5.5 points or more.
While the numbers may not guarantee success, teams continue to invest in veteran quarterbacks, betting that leadership and experience can tip the scales. Yet, as history shows, the transition is rarely seamless, and the learning curve can be steep—even for the most seasoned pros.
As the 2026 season approaches, all eyes will be on Denver’s daunting schedule, the Raiders’ quarterback succession plan, and the ability of veterans like Smith and Murray to deliver on high expectations. With rookies waiting in the wings and old hands steering new ships, the NFL’s quarterback landscape is as unpredictable and compelling as ever. Fans and bettors alike will be watching closely to see which gambles pay off—and which teams find themselves searching for answers as the season unfolds.