On October 9, 2025, Venezuela found itself once again in the global spotlight, as mounting tensions with the United States reached a fever pitch. At the heart of the matter: a dramatic escalation of U.S. military presence in the Caribbean and a renewed debate over the future of Venezuela’s Bolivarian process. For many in Venezuela and across Latin America, the struggle is about more than just geopolitics—it’s about sovereignty, self-determination, and the power of grassroots mobilization in the face of what’s widely described as imperialist aggression.
In a recent interview on the Soberanía podcast, political analyst Chris Gilbert laid out the stakes in no uncertain terms. According to Gilbert, Venezuela’s ability to withstand these renewed pressures hinges on the principle of popular sovereignty—the idea that real power rests not just with the state, but with the organized people themselves. As he put it, “only the organized power of the people in concert with the state can effectively confront imperialism.” Gilbert emphasized that, throughout years of external pressure and economic warfare, it has been Venezuela’s grassroots mobilization and communal structures that have played a central role in defending the Bolivarian process. To him, Venezuela’s struggle is emblematic of a broader Latin American effort to assert independence from U.S. domination.
This perspective was echoed at a Baltimore forum held on October 1, 2025, titled “Stop the U.S. Campaign to Overthrow Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution.” Sponsored by the Struggle for Socialism Party and the People’s Power Assembly, the event drew activists, analysts, and community members together for a frank discussion about the intensifying crisis. Leonardo Flores, a Venezuelan political analyst and founding member of the Venezuelan Solidarity Network, took the floor to provide a sobering assessment of recent developments.
Flores described a "massive military buildup at Venezuela’s doorstep," citing reports of roughly 6,500 U.S. troops, dozens of warships, and a steady stream of planes landing in Puerto Rico for what he called "amphibious invasion exercises." According to Flores, "It’s a really, really dangerous situation, and it’s a wild escalation of previous U.S. policy towards Venezuela." He noted that this was the largest U.S. deployment in the Caribbean since the 1989 invasion of Panama, and warned that the Pentagon appeared "poised to go to war with Venezuela—a war that will be disastrous not only to the people of Venezuela but to the youth and workers right here at home."
The official rationale for this buildup has centered on allegations of "narco-terrorism," with U.S. officials claiming that Venezuela is responsible for flooding American streets with drugs and facilitating terrorist infiltration. But both United Nations and U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data contradict these claims. As Flores pointed out, "Venezuela produces zero coca leaf, zero cocaine, zero fentanyl, and no chemicals that lead to the production of fentanyl." In fact, only about 5% of global cocaine transits through Venezuela, while the vast majority passes through Pacific coast countries such as Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador—nations with far closer ties to the U.S. and, in the case of Ecuador, a government led by a right-wing president whose family’s banana corporation has been linked to cocaine shipments.
Flores also addressed the oft-cited threat of the Tren de Aragua, a criminal organization that surged between 2015 and 2017, coinciding with the height of U.S. economic warfare against Venezuela. "Tren de Aragua is not even a cartel," Flores explained. "It is a criminal organization involved in murder for hire, security for cartels, and human trafficking." He stressed that the group was functionally destroyed by Venezuelan military operations in early 2023, and that its remaining leaders had fled the country. "Criminals use the name because it has a certain cachet," he added, noting that even the DEA describes Tren de Aragua as conducting only "small-scale drug trafficking activities."
The narrative of government collusion with criminal organizations has also been undermined by the U.S. intelligence community itself. A leaked National Intelligence Council memo stated, "The Maduro regime probably does not have a policy of cooperating with Tren de Aragua and is not directing Tren de Aragua movement to and operations in the United States. Venezuelan intelligence, military, and police services view Tren de Aragua as a security threat and operate against it." This stands in stark contrast to the rhetoric of certain U.S. politicians, who continue to push for regime change based on these alleged links.
Another persistent myth is the existence of the so-called "Cartel de los Soles" (Cartel of the Suns), which Flores dismissed as "totally fictional." The first reference to the cartel, he explained, was actually a CIA operation in 1993, and it has never been mentioned in any DEA National Drug Threat Assessment reports. "Whenever you see some sort of anonymous source in a publication, particularly the Miami Herald, it’s a CIA asset just planting information into this mainstream media," Flores said.
The human cost of these policies has been significant. Over the past year, approximately 8,000 Venezuelan migrants have been deported from the United States, with only one linked to Tren de Aragua and just 2% having criminal records in Venezuela. Many families have been separated, and dozens of Venezuelan children remain in U.S. foster care while their parents are back in Venezuela, with little hope of reunion due to the closure of the Venezuelan embassy in the U.S.
The military escalation has already had deadly consequences. According to Flores, U.S. forces have taken down at least three ships in Venezuelan waters, killing 17 people—mostly fishermen and migrants. He cited a New York Times report describing how U.S. forces repeatedly struck civilian vessels, raising serious questions about the legality and morality of these operations.
Despite these threats, Venezuela’s response has been one of mobilization and readiness. The country has called upon its popular militias, with over 8 million people now enrolled in the armed forces, reserves, and militias. "There’s this state of readiness for an invasion. It may not come, but what might happen... is strikes within Venezuela," Flores warned, adding that even opposition-linked polls show only 3% of Venezuelans support military action, while 93% reject U.S. threats. Interestingly, public opinion in the United States also appears opposed to intervention, with a recent YouGov poll showing 62% against a U.S. invasion of Venezuela.
For many Venezuelans, the struggle is not just about resisting external threats but about defending the gains of the Bolivarian process and asserting their right to self-determination. As Chris Gilbert argued, "Venezuela’s struggle embodies a wider Latin American effort to assert independence from U.S. domination." Grassroots mobilization, communal structures, and popular sovereignty remain at the core of this resistance, providing a model for others in the region confronting similar pressures.
As the world watches the unfolding crisis, the voices from within Venezuela and its allies abroad continue to insist: the future of the country—and perhaps the region—will be decided not by foreign powers, but by the organized will of its people.