The Mountain West Conference is heating up as the Utah State Aggies visit the San Diego State Aztecs at Viejas Arena in San Diego, California, on February 25, 2026. With both teams jostling for top spots and NCAA Tournament consideration, this late-night showdown is shaping up to be a pivotal clash in the college basketball landscape. Tip-off is set for 11:00 p.m. Eastern Time, with the action airing live on FS1 and available for streaming via the FOX Sports App and FOX One.
Utah State enters the contest with an impressive 23-4 overall record (13-3 in Mountain West play), while San Diego State stands at 18-8 overall (12-4 in conference action), according to the consensus of recent reports. The Aggies are eager to bounce back after their eight-game winning streak was snapped by an 80-77 upset loss at Nevada last weekend. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are looking to halt a two-game skid, having recently fallen to Grand Canyon University and Colorado State, both times as the favored squad.
This is the second meeting between these two Mountain West heavyweights this season. The first clash, on January 31, 2026, saw Utah State prevail 71-66 in a game where the Aggies trailed for most of the night but stormed back late. In that contest, Karson Templin starred for Utah State with 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting, while Reese Dixon-Waters led the Aztecs with 19 points. Utah State’s resilience was on full display, erasing a 10-point deficit late in the first half and rallying from seven down with under nine minutes left to seize the victory.
Heading into this rematch, the betting markets paint a tight picture. DraftKings lists San Diego State as a slim 1.5-point favorite, with a moneyline of -115 for the Aztecs and -105 for the Aggies. The over-under is set at 146.5 points, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring, fast-paced affair. Other outlets have offered similar odds, with some minor variations in the moneyline and spread, but the consensus is clear: this one could go either way.
Utah State’s backcourt is the engine that makes this team go. Guards MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev combine for 34 points per game, both shooting above 50% from the field and hovering around 40% from beyond the arc. “Falslev and Collins are the go-to guys for Utah State, as both are averaging over 16 points per game and shoot over 50% from the field,” noted one analysis. They’re the only double-digit scorers on the Aggies’ roster, but their impact is outsized, often dictating the game’s tempo and flow.
Supporting the guards, Utah State’s frontcourt is no slouch either. The Aggies are one of the nation’s best offensive rebounding squads, grabbing 34.8% of their own misses. Garry Clark and Karson Templin each post offensive rebound rates above 12%, with Clark ranking 18th nationally in that category. This relentless pursuit of second-chance opportunities could be a game-changer against a San Diego State team that has occasionally struggled on the glass, allowing offensive rebounds on 30% of opponent misses.
Defensively, Utah State is a tough nut to crack. Ranked 35th in defensive efficiency, the Aggies employ a matchup zone that focuses on forcing turnovers (20% turnover rate) and limiting easy buckets at the rim. “You have to feel good about the way this defense attacks. Jerrod Calhoun primarily uses a matchup zone, with the main goal being forcing turnovers and limiting scoring at the rim,” according to a recent preview. Their ability to disrupt opposing offenses has been a hallmark all season long.
San Diego State, for its part, is built on defensive grit and versatility. Under head coach Brian Dutcher, the Aztecs consistently rank among the nation’s elite on that end of the floor. This year is no exception: they’re 17th in defensive efficiency, force turnovers on 21% of possessions, and hold opponents to just 46% shooting on two-point attempts. Their length and athleticism often push opponents to settle for threes — nearly half of all shots against SDSU come from beyond the arc, a rate that ranks 358th out of 365 Division I teams.
But the Aztecs have their own issues, especially on offense. Scoring has been a challenge, with the team ranking 108th in offensive efficiency and lacking a clear go-to scorer. Reese Dixon-Waters leads the way with 12 points per game but shoots just 34% from deep. Miles Byrd, an athletic junior guard who tested the NBA waters last year, averages 10.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game but has struggled for consistency, shooting 41% from the field and held to just seven points in the first meeting with Utah State.
San Diego State’s frontcourt rotation has also been in flux. Magoon Gowath, Pharaoh Compton, and Miles Heide have all seen time, but none have seized the role decisively. Heide recently overtook Gowath for the starting spot, and Tae Simmons has begun to eat into backup minutes. The Aztecs’ inability to dominate the boards remains a concern, and that weakness could be exploited by Utah State’s relentless rebounding.
Turnovers have plagued the Aztecs as well. They cough up the ball on 17.5% of possessions, a stat that could play right into the hands of Utah State’s aggressive defense. “The Aztecs’ poor decision-making could sting them. They turn the ball over 17.5% of the time, and that has to have Utah State ready to feast,” observed one analyst.
Both teams have been inconsistent against the spread this season. Utah State is 12-14 ATS, including 7-7 on the road, while San Diego State is 13-12 ATS, with a 6-7 home mark. The OVER has hit in 15 of Utah State’s games, while the UNDER has prevailed in 14 of San Diego State’s contests, suggesting a clash of styles when it comes to pace and scoring.
As the regular season winds down, the stakes couldn’t be higher. San Diego State sits one game back in the Mountain West standings; a win tonight would knot the Aztecs and Aggies atop the conference and set up a dramatic finish to the regular season. Utah State, meanwhile, is looking to reassert itself after a tough road loss and bolster its NCAA Tournament résumé.
Predictions from experts and betting analysts are split. Some see the Aztecs’ home-court advantage and defensive prowess as decisive, predicting a narrow win for San Diego State (77-74). Others like Utah State’s offensive efficiency, rebounding edge, and recent form, backing the Aggies as slight road underdogs.
With so much on the line and both teams hungry for a statement win, fans can expect a fierce, back-and-forth battle in San Diego. Will Utah State complete the season sweep, or can the Aztecs hold serve at home and shake up the Mountain West race? One thing’s for sure: college basketball fans won’t want to miss a minute of this late-night thriller.