The Alamodome in San Antonio was buzzing with anticipation as the No. 16 USC Trojans (9-3) took on the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) for the 2025 Valero Alamo Bowl on Tuesday, December 30. With kickoff at 9:00 p.m. ET, fans from both coasts tuned in to ESPN for a Big Ten vs. Big 12 showdown that promised high drama, big plays, and plenty of intrigue thanks to major lineup changes on both sides.
This marked USC’s first-ever appearance in the Alamo Bowl, a notable milestone for a program with a storied bowl history. TCU, on the other hand, had fond memories of this venue, having triumphed in both their previous Alamo Bowl trips in 2015 and 2017. The Trojans entered the game as 6-point favorites, with the over/under set at 56.5 points, but the pregame narrative was dominated by who would—and wouldn’t—be suiting up.
USC’s season was a rollercoaster, starting with dominant wins over Missouri State and Georgia Southern, then rolling through Big Ten play with victories at Purdue and against Michigan State. However, road losses to No. 23 Illinois and No. 13 Notre Dame tempered early optimism, even as the Trojans managed to topple No. 15 Michigan. Down the stretch, head coach Lincoln Riley’s squad handled Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and archrival UCLA, only falling to No. 6 Oregon on the road.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava stood out as a true star in his first full year as USC’s starter. He led the Big Ten with 3,431 passing yards, firing 23 touchdowns against just eight interceptions and posting a 159.5 passer rating. Maiava also contributed 150 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. Yet, as the bowl approached, the headlines weren’t just about his arm but about who he’d be throwing to.
USC’s top three pass-catchers—All-American Makai Lemon (1,160 yards, 13 TDs), Ja’Kobi Lane, and tight end Lake McRee—opted out of the Alamo Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. Tight end Walker Lyons, set to transfer, was also unavailable. That left Maiava relying on less-experienced receivers, including a true freshman with just 28 career receptions stepping into a lead role. The absence of these playmakers cast doubt on whether the Trojans’ high-octane offense, which ranked fourth nationally in yards per play and ninth in yards per pass, could maintain its regular-season pace.
“Maybe Maiava finds chemistry with the deputies, but the ceiling for this attack is now severely limited,” wrote Michael Leboff in the New York Post, underscoring the uncertainty swirling around USC’s offensive prospects.
On the ground, King Miller shouldered the load after Waymond Jordan’s season-ending ankle surgery. Miller amassed 969 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage, giving USC some stability in the run game. But the hits kept coming for the Trojans: safety Kamari Ramsey declared for the NFL Draft and sat out, while defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn—fresh off agreeing to join Penn State—remained on the sideline for one last game. Lynn’s unit allowed just 22.4 points per game (No. 48 nationally), but the defense, like the offense, was depleted by opt-outs and injuries.
Across the field, TCU’s season had its own ups and downs. The Horned Frogs started hot, hammering North Carolina 48-14 and dispatching Abilene Christian and SMU. However, consistency eluded them, as they never managed more than two consecutive wins after that 3-0 start. Losses at Arizona State, Kansas State, and No. 12 BYU, plus a home defeat to Iowa State, kept TCU out of the College Football Playoff conversation. Still, they notched key wins over Colorado, Baylor, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and No. 25 Houston.
Quarterback Josh Hoover, one of the Big 12’s most aggressive passers, threw for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns but also led the conference with 13 interceptions. Just before the bowl, Hoover entered the transfer portal and skipped the game, thrusting veteran Ken Seals into the starting role. Seals, a super senior who’d appeared in 27 games for Vanderbilt before transferring, brought plenty of experience (4,413 career passing yards, 29 TDs, 23 INTs) but was making his first start in two years. Unlike Hoover, Seals isn’t much of a runner, tallying -38 rushing yards on 123 career carries.
TCU’s offense, ranked No. 42 with 30.8 points per game, leaned on the running back tandem of Jeremy Payne and Trent Battle, who combined for 1,102 yards and 11 touchdowns. The passing attack took a hit with wide receiver Jordan Dwyer (730 yards, seven TDs) sidelined by a foot injury, but Eric McAlister (64 catches, 1,121 yards, 10 TDs) remained a threat. Defensively, TCU was led by All-Big 12 First Team linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr and his 119 tackles, but the unit as a whole allowed 25.2 points per game (No. 71 nationally).
Pregame predictions were all over the map. Some analysts, like Sam Connon at DraftKings, saw USC’s talent advantage as decisive, even with the depleted roster: “Maiava should be able to keep the Trojans’ offense humming, even without a handful of elite skill position players. As long as he doesn’t turn the ball over like he did against Notre Dame and Oregon and gift TCU points with their backup quarterback, look for USC to march down to Texas and win by a touchdown or more.”
Others, citing the Trojans’ missing stars and defensive attrition, expected a much closer contest. “USC’s offense was a buzzsaw all season… but those numbers will likely take a huge dip without Lane, Lemon and McRee,” Leboff noted. Covers.com’s preview argued, “TCU will cover this spread against a depleted USC team missing most of its top players on both sides of the ball. Lincoln Riley did a great job this year, and the recruiting class is superb, but this year’s team simply doesn’t care about the outcome of this bowl game.”
Betting lines reflected the uncertainty. USC was favored by 5.5 to 6.5 points, but the total of 56.5 points seemed high given both teams’ offensive question marks and defensive opt-outs. Some experts suggested the under, anticipating a scrappy, unpredictable affair, while others forecast a shootout, with both teams pushing the tempo and exploiting defensive gaps.
As the game got underway, all eyes were on the quarterbacks. Could Maiava find new chemistry with his receivers? Would Seals’ experience steady the Horned Frogs? The Trojans’ defense, missing several stars, faced a TCU attack eager to prove itself despite the absence of Hoover. On the other side, TCU’s own defensive vulnerabilities meant the door was open for USC’s next-man-up playmakers to make a name for themselves.
With both teams missing key pieces and hungry to cap their seasons with a statement win, the 2025 Valero Alamo Bowl was set up to deliver the kind of drama that makes college football bowl season so memorable. As the action continued under the bright lights of the Alamodome, fans and bettors alike watched closely, knowing that in a game shaped by so much change, anything could happen before the final whistle.
