As the world’s agricultural markets continue to shift in the face of changing trade dynamics, U.S. grain and protein exporters are finding new momentum in early 2026. Recent data and expert commentary reveal a landscape marked by both opportunity and challenge, with wheat, pork, and beef exports each telling a story of adaptation and resilience.
On January 13, 2026, Just Gilpin, CEO of Kansas Wheat, offered an optimistic outlook for U.S. wheat exports. "As we think about those larger crops where there might not be the number of bushels out there or protein and quality, there could be an opportunity for U.S. wheat exports to have some demand come back later this winter and into the spring," Gilpin told Brownfield. This cautious confidence comes even as global wheat production remains robust, creating stiff competition for American growers.
Yet, there are signs that the tide may be turning in favor of U.S. wheat. Market access is improving, with hard red winter wheat making inroads into Southeast Asia. Perhaps more surprisingly, Nigeria has re-emerged as a significant buyer. In October 2025, Nigeria even outpaced Mexico to become the leading foreign market for U.S. hard red winter wheat, a remarkable shift given the longstanding dominance of Latin American buyers.
Behind the scenes, policy changes are also shaping export prospects. The Food for Peace program—a longstanding U.S. initiative aimed at providing food aid abroad—is undergoing a temporary transition. An interagency agreement between the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Department of State has allowed the USDA to take over management of the program, which was previously overseen by USAID. According to Gilpin, "That is a very positive move to help get U.S. grown commodities get back into humanitarian programs."
This transition is more than bureaucratic reshuffling. Sam Kieffer, CEO of the National Association of Wheat Growers, called the USDA’s new role a "common-sense move that will strengthen the program." Kieffer also noted that Congress could pass legislation to make this change permanent, potentially giving U.S. wheat growers a more stable pipeline into humanitarian markets for years to come.
Meanwhile, the protein sector is experiencing its own set of twists and turns. According to USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), U.S. pork exports surged in October 2025, reaching 264,657 metric tons—a 5 percent increase from the previous year. Export value also jumped, rising 7 percent to $762.1 million. Mexico was the clear leader, driving record-large shipments and anchoring gains in Central America, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Notably, Honduras and Guatemala also set new records for U.S. pork imports.
Through the first ten months of 2025, pork exports totaled 2.43 million metric tons, just 2 percent below the record pace set in 2024. This resilience is particularly impressive given ongoing issues with China, which remains the primary drag on U.S. pork exports due to retaliatory duties on variety meats. Despite these hurdles, the overall trend is positive, with demand in the Western Hemisphere and Asia helping to offset losses elsewhere.
Beef exporters, on the other hand, are navigating a more complex environment. October 2025 saw U.S. beef exports reach 93,448 metric tons. While this figure was down 11 percent from October 2024, it represented the strongest monthly volume since June and a significant rebound from September. Export gains were reported in Japan, Taiwan, Canada, ASEAN markets, and Colombia, partially offsetting continued restrictions in China. Excluding China, U.S. beef exports for 2025 were only modestly lower year-to-date, suggesting that diversification of markets is helping to cushion the blow from Chinese policy volatility.
Industry experts are quick to point out the broader implications of these export trends. Tony St. James, a markets specialist with RFD NEWS, observed, "Strong pork demand and improving beef exports outside China support protein markets despite ongoing trade barriers." Jake Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance added context on the cattle markets, noting that risk management and producer sentiment remain top concerns as volatility persists.
Grain markets, too, are facing a delicate balance between supply and demand. Larger grain stocks in the U.S. have increased supply pressure, but strong fall disappearance—especially for corn and sorghum—suggests that demand is providing a crucial offset. This dynamic is keeping traders and analysts on their toes, particularly as they monitor China’s soybean purchases and the progress toward the much-discussed 12 million ton export target promised last year.
Transportation and logistics are also playing a role in shaping export outcomes. Mike Seyfert, President of the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA), highlighted the importance of available logistics capacity, especially as winter volatility makes flexible delivery and marketing plans more attractive. He emphasized that structural efficiency in cattle markets supports price resilience, but warned that breaking this efficiency could lead to higher costs and greater volatility for producers and packers alike.
Protein markets themselves are fragmenting in interesting ways. According to RFD NEWS analysis, beef is increasingly supply-driven and structurally more expensive, whereas pork and poultry remain price-competitive. Tight supplies of fed cattle are shifting margin risks to packers, strengthening cattle price leverage but also increasing volatility across the board.
All this is happening against a backdrop of persistent trade policy risks, particularly with China. As St. James noted, "China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable." This uncertainty is prompting U.S. exporters to double down on market diversification—an approach that seems to be paying off in both the grain and protein sectors.
The evolving landscape of U.S. agricultural exports is a testament to the adaptability and resilience of American farmers, ranchers, and exporters. From wheat fields in Kansas to pork plants in the Midwest and cattle ranches across the Plains, the sector is responding to shifting global demand, policy changes, and logistical challenges with a combination of innovation and grit.
As 2026 unfolds, all eyes will be on Congress to see whether the temporary USDA management of Food for Peace becomes permanent, and on global markets to gauge whether the recent upticks in pork and beef exports can be sustained amid ongoing uncertainties. For now, the story of U.S. agricultural exports is one of cautious optimism, strategic adaptation, and the relentless pursuit of new opportunities in a complex world.
