As 2025 draws to a close, the global trade landscape is shifting under the weight of new negotiations, retaliatory tariffs, and high-stakes diplomacy. From North America to Asia, the United States—under President Donald Trump’s renewed leadership—has taken an aggressive approach to rebalancing trade agreements, sparking both anxiety and opportunity among its key partners. Canada, Vietnam, and India each find themselves at the center of complex talks with Washington, striving to protect national interests while adapting to a rapidly evolving economic environment.
On December 19, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office announced that Canada and the U.S. will launch formal discussions to review their free trade agreement in mid-January 2026. According to the Associated Press, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s point person for U.S.-Canada trade relations, will meet with U.S. counterparts to kick off the process. This review is part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which was negotiated by President Trump during his first term and includes a clause allowing for renegotiation in 2026.
Carney’s update came after a turbulent autumn, marked by a breakdown in talks following Ontario’s anti-tariff advertisement in the U.S.—a move that prompted Trump to abruptly halt discussions on reducing tariffs in sectors like steel and aluminum. Carney noted that the two nations were “close to an agreement at the time on sectoral tariff relief in multiple areas, including steel and aluminum.” He acknowledged that tariffs are taking a toll on Canada’s economy, especially in the aluminum, steel, auto, and lumber industries.
Trade irritants remain, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer flagging concerns about Canadian policies on dairy, alcohol, and digital services. Greer stated that the upcoming review of the USMCA would focus on these issues, framing them as part of a “much bigger discussion” about continental trade. Carney, for his part, emphasized that U.S. access to Canada’s critical minerals—vital for national security and the Pentagon’s supply chain—is not guaranteed. “It’s a potential opportunity for the United States, but it’s not an assured opportunity for the United States. It’s part of a bigger discussion in terms of our trading relationship, because we have other partners around the world, in Europe for example, who are very interested in participating,” Carney said, according to the Associated Press.
Canada’s trade dependence on its southern neighbor is profound: more than 75% of its exports go to the U.S., and nearly CA$3.6 billion (US$2.7 billion) worth of goods and services cross the border each day. The U.S. imports about 60% of its crude oil and 85% of its electricity from Canada, making the bilateral relationship one of the world’s most integrated.
Meanwhile, halfway across the globe, Vietnam has weathered a year of trade shocks and breakthroughs. In February 2025, President Trump signed an executive order imposing retaliatory import tariffs on foreign countries, matching the import tax levels those nations imposed on American goods. By April, Vietnam found itself facing a sudden 46% tariff on all exports to the U.S.—a devastating blow, given its $104.4 billion trade surplus with America in 2024. The Ministry of Finance warned that the tariff would severely impact electronics, textiles, agriculture, and footwear, sending Vietnamese businesses scrambling to renegotiate contracts and adjust their business plans.
Vietnam’s Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien responded swiftly, sending a diplomatic note to Washington on April 3 urging a delay in tariff enforcement. On April 4, General Secretary To Lam spoke with President Trump, expressing Vietnam’s willingness to reduce U.S. tariffs to zero and encouraging further U.S. investment. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also directed ministries to step up diplomatic efforts and review Vietnam’s own tariff structure on U.S. imports.
Relief came on April 9, when President Trump unexpectedly announced a 90-day postponement of the tariff hike for more than 75 countries, including Vietnam, temporarily reducing the rate to 10%. The Vietnamese government called this a “golden window” to prepare and negotiate. Talks with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson L. Greer began on April 23, covering a wide array of issues: tariff frameworks, rules of origin, customs, agriculture, digital trade, investment, intellectual property, and supply chain resilience. A series of bilateral agreements between Vietnamese and American enterprises soon followed.
By July, General Secretary To Lam and President Trump reviewed progress, praising negotiation teams for drafting a framework for a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement. In August, the White House issued a new executive order lowering Vietnam’s tariff from 46% to 20%. The breakthrough came on October 26, when the two countries released their Joint Statement on the Framework for a Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade Agreement. The agreement committed the U.S. to a 20% reciprocal tariff, with provisions for a possible 0% tariff on certain products. Technical negotiations continue, but the new framework has already borne fruit: Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. reached $126 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, setting a new record despite the year’s volatility.
India, too, is locked in high-stakes negotiations with the U.S., seeking a fair and balanced trade deal. According to Business Today, talks are moving “in full-swing,” with Indian officials insisting they will not compromise on agriculture, dairy, or fisheries. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer acknowledged the difficulties Washington faces in “cracking India’s tightly regulated farm sector,” citing resistance to importing certain crops, meat, and dairy products. Greer described India as “quite forward-leaning” and praised the offers made as “the best the U.S. has ever received.”
Despite the challenges, both sides are pushing for progress. Five substantive rounds of discussions have already taken place, and India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal reiterated that India does not negotiate under deadlines. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump have spoken directly, reviewing progress and underscoring the importance of resolving outstanding trade issues.
The stakes for all three countries are enormous. Canada, as the top export destination for 36 U.S. states and the largest foreign supplier of steel, aluminum, and uranium, is keen to preserve its privileged access to the American market while leveraging its critical minerals as bargaining chips. Vietnam, having survived a tariff scare, is eager to cement its status as a key U.S. trading partner and secure long-term growth for its export-driven economy. India, the world’s most populous democracy, is determined to protect its farmers and rural industries while forging deeper economic ties with the U.S.
As formal negotiations begin in the new year, the outcomes will shape not only the fortunes of these three nations but also the future of global trade. The coming months promise tough bargaining, diplomatic brinkmanship, and, perhaps, a new era of economic cooperation—or confrontation—on the world stage.
