The United States is witnessing a dramatic and historic shift in crime trends, with 2025 marking what experts believe is the largest single-year drop in the national murder rate ever recorded. According to the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), which aggregates data from over 570 law enforcement agencies, murders fell nearly 20% from 2024 to 2025. This plunge, unmatched in modern U.S. history, comes after several turbulent years marked by a spike in violence during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between January and October 2025, there were 5,912 murders recorded nationwide, compared to 7,369 during the same period in 2024, as reported by the RTCI and highlighted by multiple outlets including Axios and NPR. Crime data analyst Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, described it as a “remarkable drop in crime,” adding, “[It] almost certainly fell at a historic clip in 2025, led by the largest one-year drop in murder ever recorded.”
This trend isn’t isolated to one region or type of community. In fact, the decline in murders has swept across the Midwest, South, Northeast, and West, affecting both large cities and small towns, red and blue states alike. Cities that have historically struggled with high rates of gun violence have seen some of the most significant improvements. For example, Albuquerque, New Mexico, experienced a 32.3% decrease in murders, while Baltimore saw a 30.9% drop. Atlanta reported a 26.2% decrease, and Birmingham, Alabama, led the nation with an astonishing 49% reduction in murders, according to Asher’s analysis of RTCI data.
Other major cities have also shown notable progress. New York City saw murders fall by more than 20%, Chicago by 28%, and Washington, D.C. by nearly 28%. Los Angeles County recorded a nearly 19% decline, and New Orleans reported a 7.5% decrease. Memphis, Tennessee, another city often in the national spotlight for crime, saw nearly a 20% drop in murders compared to the previous year.
Mass murders followed a similar downward trajectory, reaching their lowest level since 2006. The RTCI’s methodology is careful to exclude manslaughter, self-defense, and accidental killings, focusing solely on intentional homicides. The result is a clearer picture of the nation’s true murder rate, which, according to Axios, has been steadily declining since 2021.
The drop in murders is not the only positive change. Other violent crimes, including rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, have also declined in 2025. Robberies decreased by 18.3% nationwide, property crime fell by 12.3%, and aggravated assault dropped by about 7.5%. Motor vehicle thefts plunged by 23%, and burglaries also saw significant reductions.
What’s behind this historic decline? Experts point to a combination of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 brought a surge in homicides and violent crime, as economic, psychological, and social stresses mounted. “There was a wide array of stresses — economic, financial, psychological — that the pandemic produced,” Adam Gelb, president of the Council on Criminal Justice, told NPR. Disruptions to government services, including mental health care and community centers, left many communities vulnerable. Local government workforces shrank by about 10% between March and May 2020, but have since rebounded, restoring critical services and support systems.
Some researchers liken the dynamics of crime to an epidemic. John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety & Justice at NORC at the University of Chicago, explained to NPR, “If epidemics cause things to spiral up, they should create virtuous cycles on the way down. The fewer serious crimes there are, the more resources law enforcement has to investigate each crime.” This virtuous cycle may be playing out across the country, as declining crime begets further reductions.
Political responses to the crime wave have varied. President Trump, in his second administration, has made combating violent crime a top priority, particularly in Democratic-led cities such as Chicago, Washington, D.C., and New York. The administration deployed National Guard troops to support local law enforcement in these and other cities, a move that has drawn both praise and criticism. While Trump has touted the effectiveness of these crackdowns, there is no clear evidence directly linking federal interventions to the nationwide decline in crime, as noted by Axios.
Some experts caution against attributing the drop solely to policing tactics or federal action. Tahir Duckett, director of the Center for Innovations in Community Safety at Georgetown Law, warned NPR that using crime as a justification for crackdowns can be a “dark story that we have heard told in history,” often used to justify repressive measures or the seizure of additional authority. Tanya Meisenholder of NYU’s Policing Project added that heavy-handed federal interventions can erode trust between communities and law enforcement, making people less likely to report crimes or cooperate with investigations.
Despite the good news, not every community has benefited equally. Johnston County, North Carolina, and Gilbert, Arizona, reported sharp increases in murder rates, with both seeing spikes of 600% according to the RTCI. These outliers serve as a reminder that crime trends are not uniform, and some areas continue to face significant challenges.
Looking ahead, researchers are cautious about the future. Some, like Ames Grawert of the Brennan Center for Justice, worry that the decline may not continue into 2026. In April 2025, the Justice Department cut grants to hundreds of organizations focused on community safety, including school violence prevention programs and police training for rural departments. Many of these organizations have already reduced services or laid off staff. “These are programs that people of both parties should agree are an important way to reduce gun violence, an important way to support communities and reduce crime,” Grawert told NPR. The loss of funding could undermine the progress made over the past year.
It’s also important to note that while the RTCI’s data is robust and timely, official 2025 violent crime statistics from the FBI will not be released until next year. Historically, however, the RTCI’s estimates have closely tracked federal figures, lending credibility to the current analysis.
About 12,000 fewer people were murdered in the United States in 2024 and 2025 combined than in 2020 and 2021, according to Jeff Asher. This striking reversal offers a glimmer of hope after years of despair and uncertainty. As the nation waits for official confirmation of these trends, the numbers so far suggest a rare moment of progress in America’s ongoing struggle with violent crime.
