The United States’ recent decision to impose sanctions on Serbia’s main oil supplier, the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS), has sent shockwaves through the Balkans, raising urgent questions about energy security, economic stability, and political resilience in the region. The move, announced by the U.S. Treasury Department on October 9, 2025, directly targets NIS—a company majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom Neft—and comes at a time when Serbia relies almost entirely on Russian gas and oil, much of it transported via pipelines running through Croatia and neighboring countries.
According to Table.Media, the impact of these sanctions is not confined to Serbia alone. The Croatian oil pipeline operator JANAF, which plays a pivotal role in the region’s energy logistics, is also caught in the crossfire. The punitive measures could, as the report notes, have “massive consequences for Serbia,” but the ripple effects are already being felt beyond its borders.
Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić did not mince words in his extraordinary address to the nation. “This is bad news for our country,” he declared on October 9, as quoted by Politico. He described the sanctions as having “immense economic and political consequences,” a sentiment echoed in his warning that the move could have “unforeseeable” repercussions for the Balkan nation. “This is something that will affect every citizen,” Vučić stated, according to the Associated Press. He urged calm, however, telling Serbians, “Trust your state. We will go through this together.”
The crux of the crisis lies in Serbia’s near-total dependence on Russian energy. As AP explains, NIS is responsible for distributing almost all of the country’s gas and oil, which arrive primarily via Croatian pipelines. Gazprom Neft, Russia’s state oil giant, not only holds a majority stake in NIS but also owns Serbia’s only oil refinery. This tight integration with Russian energy infrastructure has made Serbia particularly vulnerable to Western sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control had originally placed sanctions on Russia’s oil sector on January 10, 2025. At that time, Gazprom Neft was given a deadline to divest its ownership in NIS—a deadline it failed to meet. As a result, the latest sanctions now directly affect NIS’s ability to operate freely and secure oil and gas deliveries for the long term.
NIS itself acknowledged the gravity of the situation in a statement released Thursday. “The special license from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which enables unhindered operational business, has not yet been extended,” the company said, as reported by AP. The company added that it had “stored enough supplies to keep the operation moving for customers for a longer while,” but also warned of potential hiccups at gasoline stations, particularly with payments made by foreign bank cards. For now, cash payments remain an option, but the uncertainty is palpable.
For Serbia, the timing of these sanctions could hardly be worse. With winter approaching, the threat of being deprived of gasoline and heating oil looms large. President Vučić, already under pressure from nearly a year of anti-government protests, faces what may be the greatest challenge of his more than decade-long rule. The protests, sparked by the collapse of a railway station canopy that killed 16 people, have been fueled by public anger over alleged corruption and nepotism in state infrastructure projects.
Despite formally seeking membership in the European Union, Serbia has steadfastly refused to join Western sanctions against Russia. The main reason, as AP points out, is the country’s reliance on Russian energy supplies. This balancing act—courting the West while maintaining close ties with Moscow—has now become even more precarious.
In his address, Vučić revealed that the United States had requested Serbia to nationalize NIS, a move he refused. “I refused a U.S. request to nationalize the company,” he said, according to Politico. While Gazprom Neft holds the majority share, the Serbian government remains a significant stakeholder in NIS. The refusal to nationalize underscores the complex web of ownership and the political sensitivities involved.
Meanwhile, NIS’s statement sought to reassure customers and the broader public that the company was doing everything possible to maintain stability. “We have stored enough supplies to keep the operation moving for customers for a longer while,” the company reiterated. However, it also admitted that the inability to secure an extension of the U.S. Treasury’s special license could jeopardize future oil and gas deliveries.
For JANAF, the Croatian oil pipeline operator, the sanctions present their own set of challenges. As Table.Media reports, the punitive measures could disrupt the flow of energy not only into Serbia but across the region. Croatia, which has positioned itself as a key transit country for Balkan energy supplies, now faces uncertainty about the stability of its own energy infrastructure and commercial arrangements.
The broader geopolitical stakes are significant. The sanctions are part of the West’s ongoing effort to isolate Russia economically and force a change in its behavior over the war in Ukraine. But for countries like Serbia, which straddle the divide between East and West, the consequences are particularly acute. The government’s refusal to join Western sanctions, combined with its deep energy ties to Russia, has left it exposed to precisely this sort of economic blowback.
Ordinary Serbians are watching the unfolding drama with a mix of anxiety and resignation. The threat of fuel shortages, heating disruptions, and economic instability is real. Yet President Vučić has tried to project confidence, urging citizens not to panic and promising that the government is prepared for the situation. “We will continue talks with both American and Russian officials,” he said, signaling a determination to find a diplomatic solution, or at least to buy time.
As winter approaches and supplies dwindle, the coming weeks will test both the resilience of Serbia’s government and the patience of its people. The sanctions have also served as a stark reminder of the costs—economic, political, and social—of Serbia’s strategic choices in a rapidly shifting global landscape.
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. Energy security, always a delicate issue in the Balkans, has become a flashpoint with far-reaching implications. As Serbia scrambles to adapt and the region braces for potential disruptions, all eyes will be on Belgrade’s next moves—and on the broader geopolitical chessboard that has made energy the currency of power and vulnerability alike.