When former President Donald Trump announced a new partnership to develop Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves” earlier this month, the news ricocheted around Islamabad, Washington, and the rugged, resource-rich province of Balochistan. For many Pakistanis, Trump’s optimism—shared in a Truth Social post—felt out of step with the country’s actual oil prospects. But beneath the surface, analysts say, the real story is about minerals, not oil, and the high-stakes geopolitical chess match unfolding in the region.
"Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves," Trump declared, adding, "Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!" According to The Washington Post, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Pakistan might have 9.1 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Yet, as energy researcher Afia Malik pointed out, those numbers are not proven. In reality, Pakistan’s confirmed reserves are modest—ranking it around 50th globally, behind countries like Romania and Vietnam. In 2023, Pakistan produced fewer than 100,000 barrels of oil per day, a tiny fraction compared to the United States’ 13 million barrels daily.
Despite these sobering statistics, Pakistani officials have welcomed the prospect of renewed American investment. Power Minister Awais Leghari told The Washington Post, "If there’s investment coming in from countries like the U.S., China, others, we would like to welcome that. It is good to see that on the radar of President Trump." A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, echoed the sentiment: "As the President said, Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves, which will strengthen economic security for both of our countries."
But skepticism abounds. After decades of missed opportunities and bureaucratic hurdles, few in Pakistan believe the country is on the verge of an oil boom. The most ambitious effort, a 2019 consortium led by ExxonMobil, ended in disappointment when offshore drilling near Karachi found no oil or gas. Trump’s suggestion that a private U.S. oil company would soon be chosen to lead the partnership has been met with disbelief and, in some quarters, outright mockery. Political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi suggested that, "Pakistan may simply be a leverage point, rather than the main beneficiary of this engagement."
So why the sudden American enthusiasm? According to reporting from The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune and The Washington Post, the answer lies beneath Balochistan’s arid soil. The province, long plagued by violence and deprivation, is believed to hold vast untapped reserves of gold, copper, lithium, and other critical minerals—resources that are increasingly coveted as the world pivots to high-tech manufacturing and modern warfare. Daniel Runde, a senior adviser at BGR Group and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argued that the U.S. should "expand U.S.-Pakistan relations through mining projects," noting that Balochistan is "one of the most underexplored regions in the world when it comes to mineral wealth."
This mineral bonanza is not lost on China, which has poured billions into the China-Pacific Economic Corridor (CPEC), a nearly 2,000-mile network of roads, rails, and pipelines linking western Pakistan to a deep-sea port in Gwadar. Yet, as The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune noted, CPEC’s grand ambitions have been stymied by insecurity and militancy. Basic infrastructure remains unfinished, and Baloch armed groups have repeatedly targeted Chinese projects, including lethal attacks and suicide bombings. These groups insist that no foreign investment is welcome without the consent of the Baloch people.
Balochistan’s troubled history looms large over these new deals. For decades, the region’s indigenous population has demanded freedom, self-determination, and sovereignty over their ancestral lands. They see developmental mega-projects—whether backed by China, the U.S., or anyone else—as acts of pillage and plundering. Previous ventures like Saindak and Reko Diq failed to improve local lives, fueling resentment and armed resistance. As one former Pakistani petroleum official, G.A. Sabri, put it, "Serious efforts were never made to engage them as mutual partners." Energy researcher Malik added, "When local communities see tangible benefits from exploration, they are more likely to take ownership of its security and success."
But the cycle of exclusion appears set to continue. As Pakistan’s economic woes deepen—it is now the fifth-largest debtor to the International Monetary Fund—the government has introduced legislation to expand its control over mineral extraction, further alienating local communities. Meanwhile, the U.S. military, the world’s largest consumer of critical minerals, is eager to diversify supply chains away from China. Recent Chinese export bans on rare earth minerals forced the U.S. to the negotiating table, underscoring the strategic importance of resources like lithium and copper.
In this context, the Trump administration’s renewed engagement with Pakistan takes on a sharper edge. After a period of strained relations following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump’s White House hosted Pakistan’s powerful army chief, General Asim Munir, and even brokered a ceasefire during May’s border clashes with India. Islamabad responded by nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet, as The Washington Post observed, the real American interest may be less about oil and more about access to Balochistan’s minerals and rare earths.
But extracting these riches is fraught with danger. The Baloch insurgency remains a formidable obstacle, and separatist groups have escalated their campaign against the Pakistani state and foreign investors. Just last week, Baloch separatists claimed responsibility for an attack on two mining trucks, warning that anyone "involved in the looting of Baloch national resources" would be considered a legitimate target. As The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune reported, "the greatest challenge to these ambitions is not geological or logistical; it is political."
For the people of Balochistan, the prospect of yet another round of foreign exploitation—this time with the U.S. at the helm—offers little hope. As one analysis concluded, "any new U.S.-backed deals over Balochistan’s mines and minerals are expected to deepen the cycle of suffering, dispossession, and violence." Rather than delivering development, these ventures risk accelerating displacement and killings, compounding the hardships already inflicted by decades of military occupation and economic neglect.
With the world’s superpowers vying for control of Balochistan’s mineral wealth, the stakes have never been higher. Whether this new era of American involvement brings opportunity or only more turmoil remains to be seen, but for now, the people of Balochistan are bracing for the next chapter in a long, unfinished struggle.