As tensions mount in Venezuela, the fate of President Nicolás Maduro is the subject of feverish speculation and mounting international intrigue. With a $50 million reward on his head, open CIA activity in Caracas, and a significant buildup of U.S. military forces in the Caribbean, the region is bracing for what could be a historic turning point. Recent days have seen airlines canceling flights to Venezuela, warnings from aviation authorities, and high-profile calls for regime change, all against the backdrop of a disputed election and a society on edge.
On November 23, 2025, six major airlines—including Spain's Iberia, Portugal's TAP, Chile's LATAM, Colombia's Avianca, Brazil's GOL, and Trinidad and Tobago's Caribbean—suspended flights to Venezuela, according to Marisela de Loaiza, president of the Venezuelan Airlines Association (ALAV). This wave of cancellations followed a stern advisory from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which urged civilian aircraft to "exercise caution" in Venezuelan airspace due to "worsening security situation and heightened military activity in or around Venezuela." The FAA warned that "threats could pose a potential risk to aircraft at all altitudes, including during overflight, the arrival and departure phases of flight, and/or airports and aircraft on the ground."
While airlines such as Panama's Copa Airlines, Spain's Air Europa and PlusUltra, Turkish Airlines, and Venezuela's LASER are still operating, the uncertainty has rattled travelers and businesses alike. The sudden flight suspensions reflect a broader unease as the U.S. escalates its presence in the region. According to AFP, Washington has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group, Navy warships, and stealth aircraft to the Caribbean. Officially, these deployments are aimed at curbing drug trafficking, but officials in Caracas—and many international observers—fear that regime change is the real objective.
Fueling these anxieties is the U.S. decision to designate "el Cartel de los Soles," allegedly headed by Maduro, as a terrorist organization—an order set to take effect on November 24, 2025. The Trump administration's move, reported by CNN and AFP, opens the door for possible U.S. military strikes against Venezuela. The U.S. has accused Maduro of leading this criminal organization, though most experts say the cartel does not technically exist. Since early September, U.S. forces have struck more than 20 alleged drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, resulting in over 80 deaths. However, the U.S. has yet to produce concrete evidence that these vessels were involved in drug trafficking or posed a direct threat, further inflaming regional tensions.
Against this dramatic geopolitical backdrop, the conversation about Maduro's future has grown increasingly urgent. In the past two weeks, prominent neoconservatives Bret Stephens and Elliott Abrams have argued in The New York Times and Foreign Affairs for the outright overthrow of Maduro, drawing parallels to U.S. interventions against leaders like Saddam Hussein and Manuel Noriega. Yet not everyone is convinced that a military solution is imminent—or desirable.
On November 19, Colombia's foreign minister, Rosa Yolanda Villavicencio Mapy, floated the idea of a negotiated exit for Maduro, calling it the "healthiest" option. "I believe he has indeed considered it, that there could be a way out, a transition, where he can leave without having to go to jail, and where someone can come in who can make that transition and where there can be legitimate elections," Villavicencio Mapy told Bloomberg News. However, Colombia's leftist government quickly clarified that this was not an endorsement of Maduro stepping down, emphasizing its commitment to non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.
It has been a bruising year for Maduro, who took office in 2013 following the death of Hugo Chávez. His self-proclaimed victory in the 2024 Venezuelan election was hotly contested by the opposition and has not been recognized by most Western nations. The embattled president faces not only international isolation but also a resurgent domestic opposition. In October, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, currently in hiding, won the Nobel Peace Prize and declared that Maduro's time as president is drawing to a close, promising a "new era" for Venezuela.
Despite mounting pressure, experts agree that Maduro and his government are extremely unlikely to relinquish power voluntarily. Elias Ferrer, a risk consultant at Orinoco Research, told CNN, "The US is one of the few countries in the world that if you mess with them, they can chase you until the end of the world. They are facing a very real danger." The threat of prison or extradition to the United States looms large for Maduro and his inner circle.
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez struck a defiant tone in a speech on November 21, declaring, "What Venezuela is experiencing today, I would not call dangerous times, no, but rather times of historic definition, of historic insurgency, so that they know that this people will not surrender, this people cannot be blackmailed." This sentiment is echoed by David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University, who noted, "They are worried about their safety, and they are worried about their wealth. But they also think of themselves as revolutionaries, as an anti-imperialist, historically important project that has thumbed its nose at the United States, thumbed its nose at Venezuela’s dominant political class and has done their own thing now for 25 years."
When it comes to possible "off-ramps" for Maduro, opinions diverge. Brian Fonseca, a professor at Florida International University, suggested that exile in Russia could be a way out—if enough pressure builds within Maduro's political or military elite. "I think there has to be enough pressure mounted within the political or the military elite that ultimately push him out. I don’t think he’s going to go willfully," Fonseca said. Yet Ferrer is skeptical: "I don’t think they want to go into exile in Russia or Cuba or anything like that. They want essentially something very pragmatic, where Maduro and his friends can still be the economic elite of the country, and can trust whoever’s in charge of the armed forces."
Even if Maduro were to depart, the regime he built might endure. Smilde cautioned, "Because of his lack of charisma, what he’s had to do is construct this pyramid of people that are benefiting in some way. If you just take Maduro off of that pyramid, the pyramid is still there – and there’s a lot of people with a lot of interest in things continuing on the way they are." He recalled the aftermath of Hugo Chávez's death in 2013: "I was walking through first class. There were all these Venezuelans sipping champagne, hugging each other, saying ‘it’s over, Chavez is dead.’ And so here we are. Nothing actually changed. That leader left, and then you had a leader that’s worse."
As Venezuela teeters on the edge, the stakes could not be higher. Whether through negotiation, pressure from within, or outside intervention, the fate of Maduro—and the future of Chavismo—remains deeply uncertain. For now, the only certainty is that Venezuela’s crisis has entered a new and perilous chapter, watched by a world holding its breath.