As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran rages into its third week, the Middle East finds itself at the epicenter of a rapidly escalating conflict with global repercussions. The initial strikes began on February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched coordinated attacks on Iran, targeting its missile infrastructure, military sites, and, most notably, its leadership. The shockwaves from these events have not only upended the region’s fragile stability but also sent oil prices soaring, disrupted international trade, and triggered a humanitarian crisis on a scale not seen in years.
The most dramatic early development came with the death of Iran’s long-serving Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the first wave of attacks. According to BBC, Israel’s military confirmed that dozens of senior figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were also killed. In the political vacuum that followed, Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, was swiftly appointed as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, 2026.
Since then, the conflict has only intensified. Iran’s response has been fierce and far-reaching. The IRGC, in coordination with Lebanese ally Hezbollah, launched missiles at Israeli targets, while Iranian drones and missiles struck US bases and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf. Civilian casualties have mounted on all sides. Human Rights Activists in Iran reported 1,858 deaths in Iran as of March 12, including at least 200 children. Iran’s representative to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, put the civilian death toll at 1,348, with over 17,000 injured since the conflict began—figures echoed by both Al Jazeera and BBC.
One of the most tragic incidents occurred when a US Tomahawk missile, apparently intended for an IRGC base, struck a girls’ school in southern Iran on February 28, killing 168 people, including approximately 110 children. As reported by BBC, expert video analysis confirmed the missile’s trajectory, and US officials have acknowledged a likely targeting error. The incident has fueled outrage across the region, with Iran accusing the US and Israel of “unprovoked, illegal and illegitimate” aggression.
The war’s reach has extended well beyond Iran’s borders. Iranian attacks have targeted Israeli cities, killing 12 civilians as of March 10, and set off a wave of retaliatory strikes. In Lebanon, the conflict opened a new front when Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli positions to avenge Khamenei’s assassination. Israel responded with a “large-scale wave of strikes” on Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut’s Dahiyeh area and southern Lebanon. By March 13, Lebanon’s health ministry reported 773 deaths, including 103 children, with more than 700,000 people displaced, according to United Nations figures.
The Gulf states have not been spared. Between March 11 and 12, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Qatar all reported drone and missile attacks attributed to Iran or its proxies. Oman’s port of Salalah suffered damage to fuel tanks, prompting strong condemnation from Qatar. The UAE intercepted a massive barrage of projectiles—six ballistic missiles, seven cruise missiles, and 39 drones. Citibank announced the closure of most branches in the region after Iran threatened to target financial institutions, Al Jazeera reported.
In Kuwait, drone debris knocked out six electricity transmission lines, while a direct hit on a residential building wounded two people. Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior arrested four citizens on charges of spying for Iran’s IRGC. Meanwhile, Qatar Airways resumed limited flights after receiving government authorization, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani praised the resilience of citizens and residents during repeated attacks, pledging to keep daily life undisrupted.
Maritime incidents have further complicated the crisis. The IRGC fired at two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and Oman’s navy rescued 20 sailors from a Thai-flagged ship attacked in the area. Off Iraq’s coast, two oil tankers were attacked, leaving at least one crew member dead and several missing. The International Maritime Organization has scheduled an extraordinary session next week to address threats to shipping in the region, with the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for global oil and gas supply—effectively closed.
Economic fallout has been swift and severe. Oil prices surged to $100 a barrel, briefly spiking to nearly $120 on March 9, as attacks on energy infrastructure forced major producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia to suspend operations. The International Energy Agency responded by releasing a record 400 million barrels of crude oil, with the US contributing 172 million barrels in an effort to stabilize markets. The US military’s costs for the opening week of the war alone reached $11.3 billion, according to Pentagon briefings cited by Al Jazeera.
US President Donald Trump has made clear that, for him, stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons is “of far greater interest and importance” than controlling oil prices. On March 12, he wrote on social media that his administration’s goal was to ensure Iran could not threaten the US, Israel, or American allies “for a very long time.” Earlier, Trump had insisted there would be “no deal” with Iran unless it agreed to an “unconditional surrender.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the pre-emptive logic behind the strikes, stating on March 2 that the US acted in anticipation of expected Iranian attacks on American forces.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has warned that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and US bases in the region will face further attacks unless they are shut down. President Masoud Pezeshkian has outlined three conditions for ending the war: recognition of Tehran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression. In a notable gesture, Pezeshkian apologized on March 7 to neighboring countries for Iranian attacks, assuring them that Iran’s military would not strike neighbors unless first attacked.
Within Israel, Defence Minister Israel Katz declared that operations would continue “without any time limit, as long as required, until we achieve all objectives and win the campaign.” Israeli forces have advanced further into southern Lebanon, instructing residents to move north of the Zahrani River, and have reported the detection of Iranian missiles heading toward Israeli territory. Fourteen Israeli soldiers have been wounded since the war began, including six in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli military sources.
The humanitarian toll is staggering. Up to 3.2 million people have been displaced in Iran, according to the United Nations refugee agency. In Lebanon, more than 800,000 are registered as displaced. Across the Gulf, at least 18 people have been killed in Iranian attacks, most of them security personnel or foreign workers. In Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces reported 27 members killed, and a French soldier died in a drone strike at a Kurdish military base.
With airspace closures and thousands of flights grounded, travel across the Middle East has become perilous. Qatar Airways and Emirates have resumed some operations as airspace restrictions ease, but the region remains fraught with risk. The International Maritime Organization’s emergency talks and the ongoing release of strategic oil reserves underscore the global stakes of the conflict.
As the war enters its third week, there is little sign of a quick resolution. Each side has staked out maximalist positions, and the toll—human, economic, and geopolitical—continues to mount. For millions across the region, the hope is that diplomacy can somehow break through the fog of war before the costs grow even higher.