As the final days of 2025 tick down, global trade relations are once again under the microscope, with the United States at the center of a series of high-stakes negotiations, enforcement actions, and regulatory disputes that could shape the economic landscape well into the new year. From Indonesia’s push for a pivotal tariff agreement, to a record-breaking customs settlement with a major U.S. importer, and escalating tensions with both India and the European Union, the story of international commerce in 2025 is anything but dull.
On December 18, 2025, Indonesia’s Coordinating Economy Minister Airlangga Hartarto boarded a flight to Washington, D.C., carrying with him the hopes of an entire nation eager to finalize a long-sought tariff agreement with the United States. According to The Jakarta Post, Hartarto’s visit was timed to coincide with a crucial meeting with U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer, scheduled as early as December 19—just days before the holiday lull typically brings governmental business to a crawl. The stakes are high: Indonesia’s technical team had already been in the U.S. capital for a week, laying the legal groundwork for what Jakarta hopes will be a mutually beneficial deal before the end of the year.
“We naturally hope that (the agreement) can be finalised as soon as possible and be mutually beneficial,” said Haryo Limanseto, spokesperson for Indonesia’s Office of the Coordinating Economy Minister, in comments to The Jakarta Post. With the clock ticking toward the December 31 deadline, the pressure is on both sides to hammer out the remaining details. Yet, even if the legal process is completed on schedule, it appears that the formal signing of the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) will be left to the leaders themselves: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and U.S. President Donald Trump are expected to meet in 2026 for the ceremonial exchange.
While Indonesia and the U.S. race against time, another headline-grabbing trade development unfolded on American soil. On December 19, 2025, Ceratizit USA LLC, a Charlotte-based distributor of tungsten carbide products, agreed to pay a staggering $54.4 million to settle allegations that it had evaded customs duties on Chinese imports. The settlement, announced by the U.S. Department of Justice, resolved claims that Ceratizit knowingly misrepresented the country of origin and misclassified tungsten carbide products between August 2020 and March 2024, thereby dodging Section 301 tariffs meant to protect American industry.
“Import duties are a powerful tool for protecting American industry,” said Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate of the Justice Department’s Civil Division. “This settlement once again demonstrates that the Department of Justice will zealously pursue those who seek an unfair advantage in U.S. markets by evading customs duties.”
The allegations against Ceratizit were as complex as they were serious. The company was accused of transshipping Chinese-manufactured tungsten carbide through Taiwan and misrepresenting the products’ origin to customs officials—a move that allowed it to skirt hefty tariffs. Additionally, the company allegedly used incorrect tariff codes and failed to properly mark some imports with their country of origin, further reducing its duty obligations. The settlement also resolved claims that Ceratizit distributed unmarked products to consumers without paying required marking duties.
The case was brought to light by whistleblower Mark Stover, who filed suit under the False Claims Act and will receive approximately $9.75 million of the settlement proceeds. “We need customs duties to protect our industries and to raise money,” stated U.S. Attorney Jerome F. Gorgon Jr. for the Eastern District of Michigan, reinforcing the government’s commitment to enforcement. Commissioner Rodney S. Scott of U.S. Customs and Border Protection added, “Attempts at duty evasion have always existed, regardless of the tariff environment. These schemes are vast and complex, but CBP professionals are well-trained and positioned to detect, deter, and disrupt tariff evasion schemes to ensure that duties are paid.”
This case comes on the heels of the Department of Justice’s launch of a cross-agency Trade Fraud Task Force on August 29, 2025. The task force is designed to bolster efforts to combat and prevent trade fraud, which officials say deprives the government of vital revenue, threatens critical domestic industries, undermines consumer confidence, and weakens national security. The message from Washington is clear: whistleblowers are encouraged to come forward, and enforcement actions will be aggressive and coordinated.
Meanwhile, the broader context of U.S. trade policy remains fraught with tension and uncertainty. On December 18, USTR Jamieson Greer met with EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic to discuss what the U.S. sees as discriminatory European regulations targeting American tech companies. As reported by Bloomberg, Greer expressed “strong concerns” that the EU’s digital rules—ostensibly designed to set revenue thresholds for new regulatory frameworks—seem to “magically…only happen to capture US companies.” The USTR’s office has gone so far as to threaten retaliation, singling out European firms such as Accenture, Siemens, and Spotify as potential targets for new restrictions or fees.
The European Union, for its part, has defended its approach. Sefcovic told Bloomberg Television that the bloc is “going to protect our tech sovereignty,” a stance that resonates with many policymakers in Brussels who are wary of American dominance in the digital sector. Critics in the U.S., however, argue that these regulations stifle innovation and unfairly seek to raise funds at the expense of American businesses.
Across the globe, U.S. negotiations with India have also hit a snag. Talks that began earlier in 2025 have yet to yield an agreement, despite months of back-and-forth and four phone calls between President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi since the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods in August. As Greer acknowledged in an interview with Bloomberg Television on December 20, “I have not been surprised at where it’s been more challenging.” While the U.S. has managed to conclude deals with partners like Malaysia and Switzerland, progress with India has been slow, with negotiators making little headway even during recent meetings in New Delhi.
The year-end flurry of trade activity underscores the complexity and high stakes of global commerce in 2025. From bilateral negotiations to legal settlements and regulatory showdowns, the world’s largest economy is flexing its muscles—sometimes through diplomacy, sometimes through enforcement, and sometimes through the threat of retaliation. With deadlines looming and political leaders poised for high-profile summits in 2026, the outcomes of these disputes will reverberate far beyond the negotiating table.
The next chapter in U.S. trade relations promises to be as unpredictable as ever, with each side weighing its interests, alliances, and red lines. For businesses, policymakers, and ordinary citizens alike, the only certainty is that the world of trade is changing fast—and the consequences will be felt on both sides of every border.
