The already volatile Middle East saw new tremors this weekend as U.S. diplomatic efforts, Israeli military actions, and shifting alliances converged in a flurry of developments from Beirut to Jerusalem. On November 1, 2025, U.S. special envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack made headlines at the Manama Dialogue summit in Bahrain, where he bluntly described Lebanon as a "failed state" and underscored Washington’s deepening frustration with Beirut’s political paralysis and the overwhelming influence of Hezbollah.
Speaking on a panel dedicated to U.S. policy in the Levant, Barrack didn’t mince words. "The state is Hezbollah," he declared, referencing the Iran-backed group’s dominance in Lebanese affairs and its ability to provide for supporters in ways the official government cannot. According to Barrack, basic services like electricity and water remain chronically unreliable across Lebanon, a situation exacerbated by a government gridlocked by sectarian divisions and corruption. "It is really up to the Lebanese. America is not going to get deeper involved in the situation with a foreign terrorist organization and a failed state dictating the pace and asking for more resources and more money and more help," Barrack stated, as reported by multiple outlets including BBC and The Times of Israel.
This stark assessment came at a time when Syria, Lebanon’s war-torn neighbor, is inching closer to the international fold. Barrack confirmed that Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa is slated to visit Washington on November 10, marking the first such visit by a Syrian head of state since the country’s independence in 1946. This diplomatic thaw follows the dramatic ouster of Bashar Assad in December 2024, when a lightning offensive by Islamist insurgents toppled the long-standing regime. The new Syrian government, led by former insurgents, is now expected to join the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State group—a coalition that currently includes about 80 countries. Barrack described Syria’s inclusion as “a big step” and “remarkable,” signaling a potential realignment in the region’s complex web of alliances.
But while Syria moves toward rapprochement with the West, Lebanon remains mired in crisis. Barrack pointedly noted that Lebanon is the only state in the region “not jumping in line” with the new Middle East realignments. He argued that the U.S. would not intervene further unless its ally Israel faced increased aggression from Hezbollah. This stance comes amid a marked escalation in Israeli military activity along its northern border. According to The Times of Israel, Lebanese media reported an Israeli drone strike against a car in the southern Lebanon town of Kfar Roummane near Nabatieh on November 1. The Israel Defense Forces did not immediately comment, but the strike fits a pattern of near-daily Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah-related sites since the November 2024 ceasefire that ended the last major Israel-Hezbollah war.
The roots of this conflict trace back to the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel, which triggered the war in Gaza and, subsequently, Hezbollah’s rocket barrages into northern Israel in support of Hamas. Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling followed, with the low-level exchanges eventually escalating into full-scale war by September 2024. Despite the ceasefire, Israeli forces have maintained positions on several strategic points inside Lebanese territory, justifying their actions by citing the presence of “thousands of rockets and missiles” held by Hezbollah. Lebanese officials, for their part, have accused Israel of striking civilian areas and destroying infrastructure unrelated to Hezbollah, repeatedly calling for Israeli withdrawal and respect for Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Addressing this dangerous standoff, Barrack acknowledged the difficulty of disarming Hezbollah, noting, “It is not reasonable for us to tell Lebanon to forcibly disarm one of its political parties—everybody is scared to death to go into a civil war.” He suggested that the path forward lies in regional dialogue, stating, “The path is very clear—that it needs to be to Jerusalem or Tel Aviv for a conversation along with Syria. Syria is showing the way.”
Indeed, Syria and Israel are poised to hold a fifth round of de-escalation talks as part of a U.S.-led diplomatic push to restore the 1974 ceasefire agreement between the two countries. That historic deal established a demilitarized separation zone, monitored by U.N. peacekeepers, between Israeli and Syrian forces. However, the situation became precarious after Assad’s overthrow, when Israeli forces seized control of the U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria and launched airstrikes on military sites near Damascus. Israeli officials have stated that these actions are intended to prevent hostile forces, especially Iranian-backed groups, from gaining a foothold along the frontier—a concern that dates back to the Assad era.
While U.S. officials hope that Syria’s new government will serve as a model for regional cooperation, skepticism remains high in Israel. The new Syrian leadership, comprised of former Islamist insurgents, is viewed with distrust in Jerusalem, where fears persist that the power vacuum could invite further instability or the return of hostile actors.
Meanwhile, the situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate. Barrack’s remarks about Lebanon’s status as a “failed state” reflect a growing consensus in Western capitals that the country’s chronic dysfunction is unlikely to be resolved without a fundamental shift in political power. The dominance of Hezbollah, both as a political party and a military force, has left the Lebanese state unable to assert control over its territory or provide for its citizens. The U.S. envoy’s comments suggest that, barring a dramatic turnaround, Lebanon may remain on the sidelines as its neighbors engage in high-stakes diplomacy and realignment.
Against this backdrop, the Israeli military’s ongoing campaign in southern Lebanon shows no sign of abating. According to The Times of Israel, the drone strike in Kfar Roummane is just the latest in a series of targeted operations aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities. Israel maintains that such actions are necessary to prevent future attacks and to respond to the persistent threat posed by Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets and missiles.
Yet the cycle of violence has taken a heavy toll on civilians, with infrastructure damage and displacement compounding Lebanon’s economic and social woes. Lebanese officials have repeatedly condemned Israeli strikes on civilian areas, arguing that they violate international law and exacerbate the suffering of ordinary people already grappling with poverty, inflation, and political paralysis.
As the region braces for further developments, all eyes are on the upcoming visit of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa to Washington and the next round of Syria-Israel talks. Whether these diplomatic overtures can break the cycle of conflict and usher in a new era of stability remains to be seen. For now, the Middle East stands at a crossroads, with the fate of Lebanon, Syria, and Israel hanging in the balance as old enmities and new alliances reshape the landscape.
In a region where the ground can shift overnight, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether dialogue or discord will define the next chapter of the Levant’s troubled history.
