The relationship between the United States and Canada, long considered one of the world’s closest and most stable partnerships, is now facing its most turbulent period in modern memory. Worsened by a series of provocative moves from President Donald Trump—ranging from punitive tariffs to the deployment of National Guard troops in American cities—cross-border trust and cooperation are at a historic low, according to several experts and officials cited by the Washington Post and Reuters.
Just a month ago, President Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada after taking offense at an anti-tariff advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan. The fallout was immediate and far-reaching. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by declaring he would only resume negotiations “when it’s appropriate,” telling Reuters that there was no pressing issue requiring a meeting with Trump. Instead, Carney has actively pursued trade relationships with China and India, aiming to double Canadian exports to countries outside the US by 2035, a move reported by the Washington Post as a clear effort to reduce economic dependence on its southern neighbor.
The rift between the two countries has only deepened as both sides dig in. Trump has publicly threatened to annex Canada as the “51st state” and ridiculed former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him Canada’s “governor.” He has also levied harsh tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, accusing Canada of “cheating” on trade—a charge that has little basis in fact, according to trade experts. The president has even blamed Canada for the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the US, claims that Canadian officials and independent analysts have dismissed as unfounded.
Canadians, for their part, have rallied in defiance. The “Elbows Up” slogan, which became a rallying cry during the spring election, signaled a new era of assertiveness. Boycotts of American products have become common, and travel from Canada to the US has dropped by nearly a third compared to a year ago, costing US businesses billions. The anti-Trump sentiment was so strong that it helped propel Mark Carney to victory as Prime Minister, while the more Trump-aligned conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre lost his seat in Parliament.
James Blanchard, who served as US Ambassador to Canada under President Bill Clinton, didn’t mince words in a recent interview. “US relations with Canada are the worst in modern history, and there’s no one who has studied it that would disagree with what I’ve said, especially the Canadians. It’s tragic,” Blanchard told Spotify and YouTube audiences. He pointed to the rhetoric coming from the White House as a key factor eroding Canadian trust: “It’s the tone and the attitude which has Canadians losing total faith in us and wondering what’s going on in the United States.”
Blanchard contrasted the current environment with what he called the “golden era” of US-Canada relations during the Clinton administration. Back then, the two countries worked closely on NAFTA, Open Skies, and the Quebec referendum. “We have an integrated economy with Canada. It’s not just autos. It’s energy, it’s agriculture, it’s steel and aluminum, it’s everything. And we actually have a surplus on trade with Canada on almost everything really except energy. And we need that energy,” Blanchard explained.
Indeed, the US is heavily reliant on Canadian heavy crude oil for its refineries, which are not configured for the lighter US-produced crude. “Canada could cause power outages in New England if they pulled Hydro-Quebec back. So they have cards to play, but they don’t want to do that. I mean, they’re 10 percent of our population. We simply have a lot more leverage than they do, and that makes it hard,” Blanchard added.
The economic fallout from Trump’s tariffs has been felt on both sides of the border. Blanchard observed, “It’s causing inflation in Canada and here, despite what the president says. There may be some movement from Canada to the U.S. There’s always shuffling back and forth. But when you have a totally integrated economy in terms of parts and suppliers, as well as assembly, a lot is still going to happen in Canada.” He dismissed the notion that the tariffs would prompt automakers to abandon Canada entirely, noting that such moves take years and that “Mr. Trump is not going to be there” forever.
Meanwhile, Trump’s domestic agenda has also drawn fierce opposition and legal challenges. His deployment of the National Guard to several US cities—including Washington DC, Chicago, Portland, and Los Angeles—has sparked lawsuits from Democratic governors and city officials. Trump has justified the deployments as necessary to combat crime and support immigration enforcement, especially after a gun attack in Washington DC on November 26 injured two National Guard members. According to BBC, the president cited a “situation of complete and total lawlessness” as justification for sending hundreds of troops to the capital, and later authorized further deployments to Chicago and Portland in response to protests and unrest.
Yet, resistance has been strong. Governors like Illinois’s JB Pritzker and Oregon’s Tina Kotek have filed legal challenges, arguing that the deployments are unnecessary and risk escalating tensions. In Portland, a federal judge appointed by Trump himself blocked the federalization of the Oregon National Guard, issuing a temporary restraining order against the deployment of California’s National Guard to the city. The legal wrangling continues, with the matter potentially heading to the Supreme Court.
The president’s legal team has defended his authority to deploy the Guard under a rarely used provision of US military law, which allows the president to call up troops in cases of invasion or rebellion. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on October 6, “We’re very confident in the president’s legal authority to do this. And we’re very confident we will win on the merits of the law.”
There have been measurable impacts from the deployments. In Washington DC, police data show that homicides dropped from 107 in the May-to-November period last year to 62 in the same span this year. Overall reported offenses also fell from about 9,500 to nearly 6,500. Trump has credited the National Guard’s presence for the improvement in public safety, though critics contend that such heavy-handed tactics threaten civil liberties and strain relations with local leaders.
Back on the diplomatic front, the impasse between the US and Canada shows little sign of easing. Trump’s threats, tariffs, and rhetoric have left deep scars. “Even after Trump’s eventual departure from office, these wounds will be hard to heal,” Blanchard warned. He suggested that the next US president would need to make a dramatic gesture—like flying to Ottawa immediately to declare a return to normalcy—to begin restoring trust. But, he cautioned, “Canadians and Europeans and all of our friends everywhere are saying they’re worried about the American voter… They loved Biden, but it’s the voters they worry about.”
As legal battles over the National Guard play out at home and trade relations with Canada remain frozen, the US finds itself at a crossroads. The actions and words of its leaders have consequences that ripple far beyond its borders, shaping alliances, economies, and the everyday lives of millions. The path to repairing these relationships will not be easy, but the stakes—economic, political, and personal—could hardly be higher.