U.S. And Iran Edge Toward Armed Conflict As Talks Stall

As the world anxiously watches the Persian Gulf, the United States and Iran find themselves locked in a high-stakes standoff, with the threat of war looming larger than at any point in recent memory. Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, including two rounds of indirect nuclear talks in Oman and Geneva this February, both sides remain deeply entrenched, their positions separated by wide, seemingly unbridgeable gaps. On February 18, 2026, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed reporters, painting a stark picture of the negotiations. "We’re still very far apart on some issues," she admitted, referencing the previous day’s meetings in Geneva, which included U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner. Leavitt did, however, signal a sliver of hope, noting, "I believe the Iranians are expected to come back to us with some more detail in the next couple of weeks." This, she suggested, indicated that U.S. military strikes were not yet imminent (as reported by Reuters and Axios). But the diplomatic overtures are playing out against a backdrop of rapidly escalating military preparations. According to the U.S. Naval Institute and Reuters, the Pentagon has deployed a formidable armada to the region: the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, bristling with F/A-18 and F-35 fighter jets, is already stationed near Iran. It’s joined by the guided-missile destroyers USS Mitscher and USS Michael Murphy, both patrolling the Persian Gulf and the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil flows. In total, the U.S. has sent two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems to the Gulf, with more on the way. Over 150 military cargo flights have ferried weapons and ammunition to the Middle East, and another 50 advanced fighter jets arrived in just the past 24 hours, as reported by Axios. President Donald Trump himself has not shied away from saber-rattling. At the end of January, he remarked, "We have a lot of very big, very powerful ships sailing to Iran right now, and it would be great if we didn’t have to use them." Yet, he has also repeatedly insisted that "diplomacy is always his first option," urging Iran to make a deal with his administration. Leavitt reinforced this stance, telling reporters, "The President has always been very clear though with respect to Iran or any country around the world, diplomacy is always his first option, and Iran would be very wise to make a deal with President Trump and with his Administration." Still, when pressed on how long Trump would wait for Iran to agree to his terms, Leavitt demurred: "I’m not going to set deadlines on behalf of the President of the United States." The urgency of the situation is compounded by recent history. In June 2025, Trump authorized coordinated bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—one of the most significant American military strikes against Iran in decades. The memory of that operation, as well as last year’s Israeli-led 12-day war against Iran, hangs heavy over current deliberations. According to Axios, the prospect of a new campaign—a joint U.S.-Israeli operation targeting not only Iran’s nuclear sites but also its missile programs—now seems more real than ever. Israeli officials, as cited by Axios, are reportedly preparing for a possible war scenario within days, while some U.S. sources suggest the timeline could be slightly longer, but not by much. The diplomatic front is equally fraught. The U.S. is demanding that Iran forgo uranium enrichment on its own soil and has sought to widen the negotiations to include Tehran’s missile stockpile. Iran, for its part, insists its nuclear program is peaceful and says it will only discuss limits in exchange for sanctions relief. It has flatly rejected the idea of zero enrichment and ruled out talks on its missile capabilities. After the Geneva talks, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged that the sides had agreed on "guiding principles" for a potential deal, but U.S. Vice President JD Vance countered that Tehran had yet to acknowledge all of Washington’s red lines. Vance told Fox News, "The talks went well in some ways, but in other ways it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through." He added that while Trump wants a deal, he could soon determine that diplomacy has "reached its natural end." The regional picture grows more complicated by the day. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) just completed a series of war games in the Strait of Hormuz, preparing for "potential security and military threats." Iran and Russia have announced joint naval drills in the Sea of Oman, intended, according to Iranian Rear Admiral Hassan Maqsoudlou, "to convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries," but also to prevent any "unilateral action in the region" and enhance maritime security. Iran has also issued a notice for planned rocket launches across its southern regions, further heightening tensions. Russia, meanwhile, has issued stark warnings about the risks of further escalation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya television, "The consequences are not good. There have already been strikes on Iran on nuclear sites under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency. From what we can judge, there were real risks of a nuclear incident." Lavrov urged all parties to exercise restraint, warning that escalating tensions could unravel recent improvements in relations between Iran and its neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia. "No one wants an increase in tension. Everyone understands this is playing with fire," he said. Back in Washington, top U.S. national security advisers convened in the White House Situation Room on February 18, 2026. According to a senior official cited by Reuters, President Trump has ordered the continued buildup in the region, with all forces expected to be in place by mid-March. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to travel to Israel for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 28, with Iran’s ballistic missile program high on the agenda. The Israeli public broadcaster Kan has reported that Israel is preparing for the possibility that Washington could soon authorize strikes on Iran’s missile infrastructure. The prospect of war is not lost on policy experts. Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, told Reuters she expects further attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, possibly in the near term: "What the objectives are, we have yet to see. Can it be contained? Will others be drawn in? These are all really important questions, and we don’t have answers to them." She continued, "Frankly, I do not see a basis for an agreement yet. It doesn’t look as though these talks were very extensive. They lasted only a couple of hours … And we do have this massive buildup. So I’m very concerned." Slavin summed up the prevailing mood: "We will all be very nervously checking the news for the next few days." With no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, and both sides digging in, the world waits—uneasily—for what could be the most consequential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade. As the clock ticks down, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Washington, Tehran, and the entire region.