In the pre-dawn hours of December 2, 2025, the Oryol region of Russia was rocked by explosions as Ukrainian drones struck a fuel-and-energy complex in the Livensky District. According to Governor Andriy Klychkov, the attack caused a significant fire at the Orelnaftoprodukt oil depot in Livny—a facility that has been targeted before. Emergency services rushed to the scene, but officials reported no casualties. The incident, which local residents described as both sudden and intense, is just the latest in a series of Ukrainian drone operations that have targeted Russia’s vital oil infrastructure with increasing frequency and precision.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that 45 Ukrainian drones were shot down over eight regions, as well as over occupied Crimea and the Black Sea. Yet, the damage in Oryol was undeniable. The Ukrainian authorities, for their part, have not commented publicly on the strike. But this silence is hardly surprising; since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has rarely admitted responsibility for attacks inside Russian territory, even as their frequency has escalated.
November 2025 marked a turning point in the conflict’s strategic landscape. According to Bloomberg and other outlets, Ukraine launched at least 14 drone attacks on Russian oil refineries during the month—the highest monthly tally since the war began. Analysis from Kpler, cited by FXStreet, revealed that these strikes have had a measurable impact: daily refinery processing in Russia dropped to around 5 million barrels in November, down from 5.3 to 5.5 million barrels in late autumn. This reduction underscores the effectiveness of Ukraine’s campaign to degrade Russia’s energy sector, a key source of funding and logistical support for its military operations.
The attacks have not been limited to land-based facilities. In a particularly audacious move, drones targeted oil tankers in the Black Sea. Two tankers were reportedly attacked, and a third—previously used to transport Russian oil—was also hit. Perhaps most consequential was the destruction of one of three mooring facilities at a Black Sea oil terminal, essential for exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Kazakhstan, a major oil exporter, had been sending an average of 1.5 million barrels per day through this terminal. The situation became even more precarious when a second mooring went offline for maintenance. For a brief period, only a single mooring remained operational, though loading operations have since resumed.
These attacks have not occurred in isolation. On the night of November 28, Ukraine carried out a high-impact operation deep inside Russian territory, striking not just refineries but also airfields and Shahed drone launch sites. According to a detailed account published by Medium, this operation featured the deployment of the FP-2 heavy kamikaze drone—a long-range weapon with a warhead exceeding 100 kilograms, behaving more like a cruise missile than a traditional drone. The FP-2’s target was the Shahed drone launch ecosystem near Cape Chauda in Crimea. The resulting explosion, captured on video by Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, sent fireballs into the night sky as secondary ammunition and fuel stores ignited. The impact was so great that Russian military bloggers expressed shock and dismay at the scale of destruction.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been clear about its intentions. As reported by Mezha, officials stated, "the Defense Forces are systematically working to reduce the combat potential of Russian occupier troops and pressure Russia to end its armed aggression against Ukraine." This strategy of attrition—targeting the very infrastructure that powers Russia’s war machine—appears to be bearing fruit. Since the beginning of 2025, there have been approximately 160 successful Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil and gas processing facilities, a figure that reflects both the scale and persistence of the campaign.
On the Russian side, authorities have sought to downplay the impact of these attacks. The Ministry of Defense’s claims of shooting down dozens of drones each night are intended to project an image of resilience and control. Yet, the repeated fires, explosions, and disruptions tell a different story. The Orelnaftoprodukt oil depot in Livny, for example, has now been hit multiple times, raising questions about the effectiveness of Russian air defenses and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.
For ordinary Russians, the consequences are beginning to seep into daily life. While officials insist that there have been no casualties and that emergency services are managing the situation, the cumulative effect of these strikes is becoming harder to ignore. Reduced refinery output could eventually translate into fuel shortages or price hikes, especially if attacks continue at their current pace. The destruction of export infrastructure also threatens Russia’s ability to earn hard currency from oil sales—a crucial factor as Western sanctions continue to bite.
Meanwhile, the international community is watching closely. Kazakhstan, whose oil exports rely on the CPC pipeline and Black Sea terminals, faces its own set of challenges as a result of the ongoing disruptions. The destruction of one mooring facility and the temporary loss of another has forced exporters to rely on a single operational mooring, a precarious situation that could worsen if attacks persist. The ripple effects extend far beyond the immediate theater of war, touching energy markets and geopolitical calculations from Europe to Central Asia.
The Ukrainian campaign has also demonstrated remarkable technological innovation. The use of the FP-2 heavy kamikaze drone signifies a leap in capability, enabling strikes deep inside Russian territory with unprecedented precision and destructive power. As Medium reported, "the FP-2 erased the target. The blast was followed by fireballs from secondary ammunition and fuel stores, a clear sign the drone struck at the heart of the launch hub." This new generation of drones blurs the line between unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles, complicating Russian defenses and expanding Ukraine’s strategic options.
Despite the escalation, Ukrainian officials have maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity, rarely confirming or denying responsibility for specific strikes. This approach serves multiple purposes: it preserves operational security, complicates Russian efforts to attribute blame, and maintains a degree of plausible deniability in the eyes of international partners. Nevertheless, the pattern is unmistakable. The tempo of attacks is increasing, the targets are more ambitious, and the impact on Russia’s energy sector is mounting.
As the war enters its fourth year, the battle for control of the skies—and the critical infrastructure below—shows no sign of abating. Each new strike adds to the pressure on Russian military planners and policymakers, forcing them to divert resources to defense and repair. For Ukraine, these operations represent both a tactical and symbolic victory, signaling resilience and ingenuity in the face of overwhelming odds.
While the full ramifications of these attacks are still unfolding, one thing is clear: the war’s front lines now extend deep into the heart of Russia’s energy empire, with drones as the vanguard of a new era in modern conflict.