Russia’s oil industry, long considered the lifeblood of the Kremlin’s economy and war effort, is reeling from a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes that have battered critical refineries and export infrastructure. In recent weeks, the state-owned pipeline monopoly Transneft has reportedly warned domestic oil producers that they may need to reduce output, as mounting damage from Ukrainian attacks threatens to upend Russia’s standing as one of the world’s largest oil exporters. This warning, which Transneft has publicly dismissed as Western disinformation, underscores the growing vulnerability of Russia’s energy sector as the war in Ukraine grinds on.
According to multiple reports from Reuters, Oilprice.com, and other outlets, Ukrainian forces have intensified their campaign against Russian energy assets since August 2025. The strategy is clear: strike at the heart of Russia’s revenue stream by targeting oil refineries, export terminals, and key ports. Over the past year, Ukrainian drones have hit at least 10 Russian refineries, at one stage slashing refining capacity by nearly 20%. These attacks have not only disrupted the flow of oil but have also forced temporary shutdowns at major Baltic Sea ports, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
The scope of the damage is significant. On September 16, 2025, industry sources told Reuters that Transneft, which transports more than 80% of Russia’s crude oil, had begun restricting producers’ access to its pipeline storage system. The company warned that it may have to accept less oil if further damage occurs. “Transneft has already restricted producers' access to its pipeline storage system and signaled the possibility of accepting less oil if infrastructure suffers further damage,” two sources close to Russian oil firms confirmed to Reuters. A third source familiar with pumping operations corroborated the concern, though all three requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Despite these reports, Transneft has categorically denied any plans to reduce oil intake, calling the news “fake” and part of a Western information war. In a statement published on its website and cited by Reuters, the company said, “The appearance of such fake news with reference to some unnamed sources in the Russian fuel and energy complex causes damage to the image of PAO Transneft. It can only be caused by the attempts to destabilize the situation within the framework of the information war unleashed by the West against the Russian Federation.”
Yet, the facts on the ground paint a challenging picture for Russia’s oil sector. Last week, Ukrainian drones struck Primorsk, Russia’s largest oil-loading port on the Baltic Sea, temporarily shutting down operations for the first time since the full-scale war began in 2022. Primorsk, with a daily export capacity exceeding 1 million barrels—about 10% of Russia’s total production—partially resumed operations on September 13, but the timeline for full restoration remains uncertain. The attack also damaged two Aframax tankers, the Kusto and the Cai Yun, as well as onshore pumping equipment, disrupting shipments and raising questions about the port’s security.
Other facilities have not been spared. The Kirishi refinery in Leningrad Oblast, one of Russia’s biggest with an annual processing capacity of 60 million tons, was hit again in September after a previous strike in March 2025, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence. Early this month, the Ryazan refinery southeast of Moscow, operated by Rosneft and responsible for more than 260,000 barrels per day (5% of Russia’s refining capacity), was also targeted by drones. The Ust-Luga port’s fuel loading and gas processing complex suffered damage so severe that repairs could take up to six months, according to industry reports.
Ukraine’s rationale for these attacks is straightforward: oil facilities are legitimate military targets because they finance and fuel Moscow’s war effort. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been vocal about the effectiveness of the drone campaign, describing the strikes as “the sanctions that work the fastest.” Kyiv believes that sustained pressure on Russia’s energy infrastructure could expedite the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate peace, especially as frontline breakthroughs remain slow and attritional.
Russia’s oil and gas sector is indeed the cornerstone of its economy, accounting for between one-third and half of the federal budget over the past decade. The sector not only funds government operations but also underwrites the war in Ukraine. Despite successive waves of Western sanctions aimed at crippling Russia’s oil and gas revenues, Moscow has managed to redirect much of its crude to Asian markets, with India and China emerging as principal buyers. However, recurring drone strikes have forced suspensions, disrupted exports, and deepened domestic fuel shortages.
In response to the growing threat, Transneft has taken steps to limit storage options for oil producers in its pipeline system. Industry sources told Reuters and Oilprice.com that these restrictions, combined with the risk of further infrastructure damage, could force Russia—which accounts for about 9% of global oil output—to cut production. “The attacks could force Russia, which accounts for 9% of global oil production, to ultimately cut output,” said two sources and a third source familiar with oil pumping operations, as reported by Reuters.
Russia’s limited oil storage capacity compounds the problem. Unlike OPEC+ partners such as Saudi Arabia, which boast extensive reserves, Russia lacks the ability to stockpile large volumes of crude. This makes the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions in refining and export logistics. As U.S. bank J.P. Morgan noted in a recent analysis, “Russia's ability to ramp up oil production is now under threat due to limited storage capacity.” Goldman Sachs echoed this sentiment, warning that refinery outages would weigh on production due to crude storage congestion from lower refinery runs.
Recent Ukrainian strikes have also targeted other parts of Russia’s energy infrastructure. On September 16, special operations forces hit the Saratov oil refinery, which processes millions of tons of crude annually. Over the weekend prior, drone attacks struck an oil refinery, sanctioned oil tankers, a seaport, and a fuel train in St. Petersburg. Earlier in the month, Ukrainian forces damaged the Vtorovo oil pumping station in Russia’s Vladimir region, with satellite images showing at least two tanks affected.
While Russian authorities have not publicly acknowledged the full extent of the damage or its impact on production and exports, the disruption is undeniable. Western analysts suggest that production declines may be modest for now, as Asian buyers remain eager for Russian crude. Still, the ongoing campaign of drone strikes is putting unprecedented pressure on Russia’s oil sector, threatening both its economic stability and its ability to sustain military operations in Ukraine.
As the conflict continues, the battle over energy infrastructure has become a defining feature of the broader struggle between Russia and Ukraine. With each successful strike, Ukraine signals its intent to weaken the Kremlin’s war machine at its very source—a strategy that, for now, appears to be making a tangible impact.