In a dramatic escalation of the shadow war over energy supplies, a series of Ukrainian drone strikes has rocked the Russian oil industry and sent shockwaves across global markets. The most recent incident, on December 1, 2025, saw the tanker Mersin, laden with Russian gasoil, struck by multiple explosions off the coast of Senegal. According to Oilprice.com, the vessel had previously made several calls at Russian ports earlier this year, underscoring its role in transporting Russian fuel to international buyers despite ongoing sanctions.
Authorities moved quickly after the attack. The Mersin was stabilized and placed under tow, with all crew members reported safe. But the incident marked the third such case in just a matter of days, raising urgent questions about the security of global oil shipping lanes and the evolving tactics in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Gasoil, the cargo in question, is a crucial fuel for non-road applications—think agricultural machinery, construction equipment, generators, and certain heating systems. Disruptions to its supply can ripple through multiple sectors, amplifying the impact far beyond the immediate blast zone.
This attack is part of a much broader campaign. In recent weeks, Ukrainian naval drones have targeted sanctioned tankers in the Black Sea, piling pressure on Russia’s sprawling oil industry. Just days before the Mersin incident, two tankers—the Kairos and Virat—were hit while sailing to Novorossiysk, a key Russian Black Sea oil terminal. CNN reported that these strikes were carried out using upgraded Sea Baby naval drones in a joint operation by Ukraine’s SBU security service and the navy. Both tankers sustained extensive damage, effectively taking them out of service.
The Ukrainian government, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has made no secret of its intentions. Kyiv has repeatedly urged Western nations to crack down on Russia’s so-called shadow fleet—a network of vessels that help move Russian oil around the globe, sidestepping sanctions and funneling critical revenue back into the Kremlin’s war chest. “Hits on Russian refineries are the most effective sanctions—the ones that work the fastest,” Zelenskyy has said, according to Oilprice.com.
Indeed, Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign is already leaving a mark. Industry experts cited by Oilprice.com estimate that Ukraine’s attacks have knocked out 10 percent of Russia’s refining capacity. “Ten percent, it’s not an astonishing number,” said Tatiana Mitrova of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “But it is still something that starts to be felt with the Russian domestic fuel crisis, with reduced oil refined products exports, and general tension inside the Russian oil sector.”
Ukraine’s investment in advanced drone technology is paying dividends. The Lyutiy drone, for example, can deliver explosives up to 2,000 kilometers from its launch site. Meanwhile, Ukrainian units have become adept at swarming targets with dozens of cheaper, first-person-view (FPV) drones. This combination allows Kyiv to strike key Russian oil and gas facilities almost daily, often hitting the same refineries repeatedly to disrupt repairs and maximize impact.
By the fall of 2025, Ukraine had struck at least half of Russia’s 38 major oil production complexes. Russian oil processing dropped from 5.4 million barrels per day in July to just 5 million by September, according to industry figures. While Russia still operates the world’s third-largest refining system and maintains substantial surplus capacity, the cumulative effect is beginning to show. “It might take years before the result becomes really visible,” Mitrova cautioned. “But exhausting its potential, it really started already.”
For ordinary Russians, the consequences are increasingly tangible. Gasoline shortages and rationing have hit consumers, while the government has banned gasoline exports in an attempt to stabilize the domestic market. At the same time, Russia is exporting more crude oil and less refined product, a shift that has dented export revenues. Fossil fuels still bring the country about $100 billion annually, but that figure is roughly 20 percent lower than a year ago, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The nearly four-year-old full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to be funded heavily by these oil and gas sales abroad, making the sector a prime target for both military and economic pressure.
The international response is evolving as well. In November 2025, the Trump administration announced fresh sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas giants Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to further restrict Russia’s ability to finance its war effort. On the diplomatic front, Ukraine’s delegates held peace talks in Washington on November 30, with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff scheduled to travel to Moscow for further negotiations. The Trump administration has drafted a new 19-point peace plan that is far more favorable to Ukraine than the original 28-point proposal. Key amendments include no free handover of the Donbas region to Russia, no automatic veto on Ukraine joining NATO, and Article 5-style protection for Ukraine—meaning the U.S. would be bound to intervene if Russia invades again. Notably, a proposal for full amnesty for war crimes, present in the first plan, has been removed.
But the fallout from Ukraine’s drone campaign isn’t limited to Russia. On November 30, Kazakhstan issued a stern warning to Ukraine after a major drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk. The CPC, which handles more than 1% of global oil and includes Russian, Kazakh, and U.S. shareholders, was forced to halt operations after its Single-Point Mooring 2 was significantly damaged. “We view what has occurred as an action harming the bilateral relations of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Ukraine,” Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry said, demanding that Ukraine prevent similar incidents in the future.
Ukraine, for its part, insisted that its actions are aimed solely at repelling Russian aggression and are not directed against Kazakhstan or other third parties. “Ukraine hits back at the aggressor,” its foreign ministry stated. Nonetheless, the disruption to the CPC pipeline—which accounts for about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and is a vital artery for global energy markets—has heightened tensions in the region. Tankers were withdrawn from the CPC water area and all loading operations were suspended, further tightening the supply of oil at a time of heightened geopolitical risk.
Russia’s foreign ministry, meanwhile, has condemned the Ukrainian attacks as “acts of terrorism” and accused European powers of engaging in a hybrid war that includes intelligence support for Kyiv’s targeting of infrastructure deep inside Russia. The ministry has also warned that these attacks threaten freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, an issue that could draw in even more international stakeholders.
As the conflict grinds on, the battle over energy infrastructure is becoming an ever more central—and dangerous—front. With new drone technologies, shifting alliances, and mounting economic pressure, the stakes for both sides, and for the world’s energy markets, have never been higher.