In the rolling fields of northeastern Ukraine, a quiet but decisive shift is unfolding along the Sumy front. Ukrainian forces, employing a patient and methodical approach, are steadily encircling and dismantling Russian positions, turning the tide in a region that has seen bitter fighting for months. But as the battle for villages like Oleksiivka intensifies, the reverberations of this conflict are being felt far beyond Ukraine’s borders—most notably in the skies over Poland, where a recent incursion by Russian drones has exposed new vulnerabilities in NATO’s defenses.
According to Euromaidan Press, Ukrainian troops in the Sumy sector have adopted a deliberate strategy of maneuver warfare, isolating Russian strongholds, severing supply lines, and bombarding enemy positions with relentless air and drone strikes. The goal is simple: avoid costly frontal assaults and instead starve out Russian units, forcing them to either surrender or face annihilation. This approach has yielded steady progress, with Ukrainian forces capturing settlement after settlement, pushing north of Kindrativka and even probing the border with Russia’s Kursk region.
The focal point of this campaign is now Oleksiivka, a village nearly encircled on three sides. Only a single road remains open for Russian supplies and troop movements—but even this lifeline is under constant Ukrainian drone and artillery fire. Any attempt by Russian forces to reinforce, evacuate, or rotate troops is met with immediate and devastating strikes. As one Russian officer reportedly warned, Oleksiivka is “heading for the same fate as Kindrativka unless the Russian command abandons the position rather than bury more troops there.”
But the Russian command has responded with desperate measures. The exhausted 382nd Separate Infantry Battalion of the 810th Russian Naval Brigade—normally a thousand-strong but now mustering barely five hundred, many of them poorly trained and newly mobilized—was rushed into action at Kindrativka in a last-ditch effort to relieve Oleksiivka. According to Euromaidan Press, these reinforcements were immediately targeted by Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes, with the understrength Russian units unable to mount a coherent counterattack. The result? A dramatic increase in Russian casualties and a further tightening of the Ukrainian noose.
Morale among Russian troops is reported to be dangerously low. With all combat-effective reserves redeployed to other fronts, only second-tier and understrength units remain to hold the line. One Russian officer described receiving “only older people, marginals, and simply not combat-ready recruits in poor physical condition.” To prevent desertion or mutiny, these soldiers are closely watched by military police, issued weapons only immediately before combat, and given just two magazines of ammunition each. For many, the prospect of survival seems bleak.
This Ukrainian strategy of encirclement and attrition is not just reshaping the Sumy front—it’s sending shockwaves across the region. The fall of Oleksiivka, which now appears imminent, would fracture the western part of Russia’s Sumy incursion, further damage Russian morale, and leave hundreds of soldiers facing capture or worse. The eastern salient, too, would be jeopardized, setting the stage for a repeat of catastrophic Russian losses.
Yet the battle’s implications are not confined to Ukraine. On the night of September 9-10, as Russian forces launched a massive air attack on Ukraine, 19 Russian drones violated Polish airspace. The incursion, as reported by Associated Press, prompted a swift and costly response: Polish authorities scrambled fighter jets, activated Patriot air defense systems, and received support from NATO allies, including F-35 and F-16 warplanes, helicopters, and missile batteries. The drones were shot down, but not before exposing a critical vulnerability in NATO’s air defenses.
Russian officials insisted the drones had simply “lost their course” due to jamming, a claim echoed by Belarus, Moscow’s close ally. But European leaders and defense experts were unconvinced. “If one or two drones had crossed into Polish airspace, it could have been due to a technical malfunction,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. “But it would be hard to believe it was accidental when it comes to 19 unmanned aerial vehicles.” Thomas Whittington, an expert in electronic warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, agreed: “When several have strayed, it starts to look more like deliberate.”
For NATO, the incident was a wake-up call. As General Alexis Grinkiewicz, head of US European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, put it: “We still don’t know whether this was intentional or unintentional.” But the scale and depth of the incursion—destroyed drones were found 340 miles into Polish territory—suggested a level of planning and coordination that could not easily be dismissed as accidental.
Since the beginning of 2025, Russia has used at least 35,698 attack drones against Ukraine, according to AP analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data. Polish airspace has been violated repeatedly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but never before had so many drones penetrated so deeply into NATO territory. It was the first known instance since the war began that NATO air power was used against enemy targets in a member’s own airspace.
The incident has highlighted the limitations of existing air defense systems. As Whittington explained, NATO’s current systems are designed to detect and neutralize fast-moving targets like cruise and ballistic missiles—not small, slow-moving drones made of fiberglass or plastic. Electronic warfare methods, such as jamming and spoofing, can disrupt drone signals, but Russia’s latest models are programmed to continue their missions even if communications are lost. Some drones are equipped with inertial navigation devices, allowing them to fly without satellite or radio signals. Others are deployed in swarms or linked in columns to overwhelm defenses and extend their range.
The economic imbalance is also stark. While Russian “Shahed” drones cost tens of thousands of dollars, NATO’s response involved launching missiles worth millions. “Launching missiles worth millions of dollars is not an economically sustainable model,” said Ash Alexander-Cooper, a former military commander and expert in drone defense technology. Yet military leaders insist that protecting lives is paramount. “What matters is how much this drone can destroy. If it is a Pole’s life, it is priceless,” said General Wiesław Kukula, Chief of the Polish General Staff.
With both Russia and Ukraine rapidly developing new drones and tactics, the threat is only growing. Since 2024, Russia has begun using decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, while both sides employ fiber-optic drones immune to electronic interference. The prospect of facing swarms of drones, as Alexander-Cooper warned, could quickly overwhelm even NATO’s most advanced systems: “There would not be enough aircraft in NATO with enough missiles or enough interceptors to deal with the task.”
In response, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski has called for a “wall of drones” and new techniques to defend against future attacks. The challenge is clear: as the nature of warfare evolves, so too must the alliances and technologies that defend Europe’s skies.
As the battles rage in Ukraine and the specter of drone warfare looms ever larger, the events unfolding in Sumy and Poland underscore the high stakes—and the urgent need for adaptation on all sides.