After nearly four years of relentless fighting, the war between Russia and Ukraine has entered a dramatically new phase—one marked not by Russian advances, but by Ukrainian initiative, innovation, and growing international support. Recent days have brought a series of developments that underscore just how much the strategic balance has shifted, both on the battlefield and in diplomatic circles.
On December 15, 2025, Ukraine reportedly disabled a Russian Kilo-class submarine in the port of Novorossiysk. According to a widely circulated report, the Security Service of Ukraine staged a unique naval operation using underwater drones, striking deep into Russian territory. While Moscow has not officially confirmed the extent of the damage, the psychological and operational impact of the attack is undeniable. As reported by BBC and corroborated by Ukrainian sources, this event marks the first time a Russian submarine has been hit in a port previously considered secure—a clear sign that the war’s front lines are no longer limited to Ukrainian soil.
This strike is part of a broader pattern. As of December 2025, Ukraine has begun launching drones and ballistic missiles into Russia almost daily. Russian military infrastructure, energy facilities, logistics hubs, and ports are now routinely targeted. The Black Sea Fleet, already forced to retreat from Sevastopol, faces mounting threats even in its home waters. Submarines once used to launch cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities now find themselves vulnerable to the very tactics they once employed.
It’s a remarkable reversal from the war’s early days. When Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion in February 2022, the Kremlin’s goals were clear and ambitious: Kyiv was to fall within days, Ukraine would be “demilitarised” and “denazified,” the government replaced, and NATO’s influence rolled back. None of these objectives have been achieved. As noted by Reuters, Kyiv remains unbroken, the Ukrainian state has not collapsed, and its military has grown only stronger. Instead of disintegrating, Ukraine has adapted, hardened, and evolved under fire.
Ukraine’s greatest advantage has never been sheer numbers. Instead, it’s adaptability and innovation. In the face of Russia’s mass mobilisation and Soviet-style doctrine, Ukraine has built a war-fighting culture that values speed, decentralisation, and creativity. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the use of drones. What started as makeshift quadcopters in 2022 has evolved into a sophisticated, layered drone ecosystem—encompassing reconnaissance, strike, loitering munitions, electronic warfare platforms, long-range UAVs, and maritime drones. These systems now dominate tactical battlefields, shape operational planning, and even drive strategic effects far from the front lines.
According to Sky News, drones are not only used for high-value targets; they’re now striking individual soldiers with astonishing precision. Some are even flown through slits in fortified positions, outmaneuvering traditional artillery. Drones are also changing battlefield logistics, providing resupply and even casualty evacuation at the lowest tactical level. This innovation has forced Russian armour and supply routes to become increasingly cautious, as artillery positions can be exposed within minutes.
Perhaps most significantly, the war no longer stops at the Ukrainian border. Ukraine’s strikes have forced Moscow to disperse its assets and beef up air defences across vast swathes of Russian territory. Oil depots, refineries, airfields, ammunition stores, and logistics hubs deep inside Russia are now under threat. Each successful strike increases insurance costs, disrupts exports, and forces logistical rerouting—gradually ratcheting up the economic pressure on Russia’s wartime economy.
Russia’s decision to place its economy on a permanent wartime footing has had profound consequences. As noted by The Financial Times, the militarised economy’s dependence on energy exports and industrial throughput makes it vulnerable to Ukraine’s targeted strike campaign. With roughly 40% of Russia’s federal budget relying on oil and gas exports, each hit to a refinery or terminal quickly shows up on the balance sheet. This is not just symbolic warfare; it’s economic attrition designed to create cumulative stress on Russia’s ability to wage war.
The human cost of Russia’s approach has been staggering. Western defence estimates now place total Russian casualties—killed and wounded—at over one million since 2022. Despite these losses, Russia has gained less than 2% of Ukraine’s territory since the major Ukrainian counter-offensives of 2022. Years of fighting, hundreds of thousands of casualties, and immense economic strain have produced only marginal, localised gains measured in kilometres, not strategic outcomes. As a result, Russian propaganda around places like Kupiansk and Pokrovsk has grown increasingly frantic, desperate for successes that reality does not provide.
On the diplomatic front, there are signs of movement as well. On December 16, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that a draft peace plan, discussed with US officials in Berlin, is “very workable” and could be finalised within days. During a visit to the Netherlands, Zelenskyy signed a treaty establishing an international Ukraine war damages body, allowing Ukrainians to seek compensation for losses caused by Russia since the invasion began. “They represent the gratitude of the entire Ukrainian people for what our warriors have already done—for preserving Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in a social media post, after meeting injured Ukrainian soldiers in a Dutch rehabilitation centre.
Yet, Moscow remains wary. Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov expressed reservations about the Berlin talks, reaffirming Moscow’s unwillingness to make territorial concessions or accept NATO troops in Ukraine. Meanwhile, eight northern and eastern European countries—including Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, and Lithuania—issued a joint statement calling Russia the most significant, direct, and long-term threat to European security. As Finland’s prime minister put it, Europe faces “some of the most serious and existential questions of our time.”
In the UK, the Russian embassy rejected accusations by the new MI6 chief that Moscow is “bullying, fearmongering and manipulating,” calling such claims “unfounded” and insisting, “Russia has no plans, intentions, or reasons to engage in armed conflict with the United Kingdom.” The embassy called for “an end to portraying Russia as an enemy of the UK and Europe.”
Meanwhile, the economic and humanitarian toll of the war is ever-present. Ukraine’s defence minister Denys Shmyhal stated that Ukraine must recover half of its projected $120 billion defence spending for 2026, with $45 billion already pledged, including nearly $5 billion for defence production and $5 billion for US weapons. Zelenskyy has also urged the European Union to use frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defence—a move Moscow has called “theft,” vowing retaliation and filing a lawsuit seeking $230 billion in damages from Euroclear.
On the ground, the reality of the conflict remains stark. A funeral service was held for six unidentified Ukrainian soldiers killed defending Bakhmut in the war’s first year, their bodies only recently returned in a swap. The Zaporizhzhia power plant, still under Russian control, is operating on a single external power line due to ongoing military activity, though radiation levels remain normal.
As 2025 draws to a close, Ukraine is not merely surviving—it is shaping the conflict, forcing Russia onto the defensive, and rewriting the rules of modern warfare. The balance of power, once thought immovable, has shifted decisively—and perhaps irreversibly—away from Moscow.
