It’s a conflict defined by innovation and escalation, with both sides adapting rapidly to the ever-shifting realities of modern warfare. In recent weeks, the skies above Ukraine and Russia have become a proving ground for new tactics and technologies, as the war’s fourth year brings increasingly sophisticated drone warfare, mounting cross-border strikes, and the looming possibility of even deadlier weapons entering the fray.
On October 5, 2025, the Russian Telegram channel Dva Maiora posted photos of a grounded, fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) reportedly discovered in Crimea. The timing was no coincidence: just a day later, Ukraine launched a major attack on occupied Crimea, hitting a refinery that has since burned for three days. According to Euromaidan Press, two Ukrainian military sources confirmed that Kyiv is now deploying decoy drones to break through Russian air defenses—a trick long used by Moscow against Ukraine. By sending these propeller-driven decoys ahead, Ukraine hopes to trigger Russian weapons and force them to reload, giving real drones carrying live warheads a clear path to their targets.
The decoys themselves aren’t much to look at. As described by the Ukrainian sources, they resemble light strike drones, built with plastic shells and plywood, and typically carry small warheads effective against infantry or lightly armored vehicles. Their true value lies in their ability to draw Russian fire or waste Russian single-use UAVs on interception attempts. With the front stretching for hundreds of miles and Russia’s vast territory to defend, the tactic exploits the inevitable gaps in Russian air defenses.
But the technological tug-of-war doesn’t end there. Russian sources have accused Ukraine of copying their own ‘Gerbera’ decoy drones—cheap, simplified versions of the infamous Shahed drones, constructed from plywood and styrofoam to keep costs low. These decoys have been used to jam up Ukrainian air defenses for months, and now, it seems, Ukraine is returning the favor. The same Russian Telegram channel also referenced Ukraine’s use of balloons in attacks, particularly those reported during an overnight assault on Russia on September 22-23, in which balloons carrying explosive devices were spotted drifting across the border. According to Euromaidan Press, these drone balloons can carry cameras, electronic countermeasures, or even serve as relays for smaller drones—adding another layer of complexity to an already tangled air war.
Meanwhile, the impact of these tactics is being felt far from the front lines. In a recent attack deep inside Russia, Ukrainian drones reportedly disabled 40% of one of the country’s largest refineries, exacerbating Moscow’s ongoing fuel crisis. The BBC has found that at least 21 of Russia’s 38 major refineries have been hit since January 2025—almost double the number struck in all of 2024. The result has been fuel shortages and rising prices across several Russian regions, a development that’s left the Kremlin scrambling to shore up its critical infrastructure.
Russia, for its part, has been quick to adapt. In early October, Russian propaganda channels released video footage showing Shahed attack drones, now equipped with cameras, striking moving targets such as railway trains carrying Ukrainian military equipment near Bobrovytsia in the Chernihiv region. As reported by UNN, these drones transmit real-time video, allowing Russian operators to confirm hits and adjust targeting on the fly. Aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap explained that the addition of thermal imaging cameras gives Shahed drones the ability to target at night or in poor visibility, automatically recognize and aim at warm objects, and ignore decoys or cold targets.
Under the hood, these upgraded drones pack serious computing power. The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry recently detailed the electronic components of a downed Shahed-136 MS series UAV, which included a high-speed Nvidia Jetson Orin mini-computer specialized for artificial intelligence and video processing. This allows the drone to compare live video with pre-loaded models, enabling autonomous re-targeting or even fully automated strikes. Kryvolap noted that while shooting down a Shahed is no different whether it’s equipped with a camera or not, the sophistication of Russia’s drone fleet has undeniably increased.
The escalating drone war is mirrored by a surge in cross-border strikes. On October 7, 2025, a Ukrainian missile strike hit Russia’s Belgorod region, killing three people and injuring at least nine, according to regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. The attack, which struck the village of Maslova Pristan, left a crater next to a sports complex and forced emergency workers to search for those trapped under rubble. It was the third consecutive day of Ukrainian strikes in the region, following a pattern of attacks that have left thousands without power and caused significant structural damage. The BBC reported that nearly 40,000 residents across seven municipalities were affected by power cuts following the strikes, which also damaged homes, vehicles, and power lines. Ukraine has not publicly commented on the attacks, but has repeatedly targeted Russian territory—including Belgorod—since the war’s outset.
As winter approaches, the stakes are rising for both sides. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Moscow of deliberately targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, a claim backed up by recent Russian strikes that have caused widespread power outages in Ukrainian regions. In response, Zelensky has announced new funding to repair damaged facilities and build up reserves of equipment to restore power supplies. “Despite all the challenges, we must support the communities currently facing the hardest times,” he said, emphasizing the resilience needed to weather the coming months.
Yet the most dramatic shift in the conflict may still be ahead. Since September, speculation has grown over whether the United States will supply Ukraine with the long-requested Tomahawk cruise missiles—subsonic, long-range weapons designed for precision strikes against land targets. On October 6, former U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters, “I think I want to find out what they’re doing with them, where they’re sending them, I guess. I have to ask that question,” suggesting a decision was imminent.
Analysts say the Tomahawk, with an operational range of up to 1,700 kilometers in the versions likely destined for Ukraine, would allow Kyiv to strike deep inside Russia, hitting high-value military and strategic sites such as oil refineries, air bases, and logistics hubs. “They would be a powerful addition to Ukraine’s arsenal—something the country largely lacks at the moment,” Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told the Kyiv Independent. The Tomahawk carries a warhead weighing hundreds of kilograms—far more than Ukraine’s domestically produced long-range drones, which typically carry only tens of kilograms of explosives.
The possibility of Tomahawks entering the conflict has already drawn sharp warnings from Moscow. On October 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that supplying such missiles to Ukraine would “destroy the emerging positive trends in relations between Russia and the United States.” Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told the Kyiv Independent that Tomahawks could force Russia to stretch its air defenses even thinner, protecting command centers and logistical sites deep inside the country. “Tomahawk offers far larger and more capable warhead effects than Ukraine’s long-range UAVs, far greater terminal accuracy than its indigenously developed Flamingo cruise missiles, and far greater range than the Anglo-French Storm Shadow or SCALP,” Bronk explained.
Still, experts caution that no single weapon will change the war overnight. “Any one weapon system isn’t usually really a game-changer. It’s more about the larger dynamics at play,” Kastehelmi said, noting that the impact would depend on the number of missiles supplied and Ukraine’s ability to replenish them. Bronk agreed, adding that Tomahawks “are not a magic bullet,” though their presence could intensify pressure on Russia and serve as a potent bargaining chip in future negotiations.
As both sides race to outmaneuver one another in the air and on the ground, the war’s next chapter appears set to be written not just by soldiers and tanks, but by engineers, programmers, and diplomats—each striving to tip the balance in a conflict where the rules are constantly being rewritten.