The United Kingdom is bracing for a dramatic shift in its weather this weekend, as a surge of mild air sweeps away the lingering chill of winter and brings temperatures that could climb as high as 16C (61F) in parts of the country. After weeks dominated by frost, ice, and even snow, this sudden change—starting Friday, February 21, 2026—has caught the attention of both meteorologists and the public, with many wondering if spring might be arriving early. But experts warn: don’t stash away those winter coats just yet.
According to Sky News, the recent cold snap had led to widespread warnings for ice and snow, with some areas experiencing daytime highs of just 4C or 5C (39-41F) and nighttime lows plunging to minus 9C (16F) in Scotland. The start of 2026 had seen the longest wait for Scotland to reach 12C (54F) since 1986, a testament to how persistent and biting the wintry weather has been. Yet, as the weekend approaches, forecasters are predicting a significant jump in temperatures—potentially up to 10C higher than recent averages.
“If we’re looking for a glimmer of hope, let alone a glimmer of sunshine, it will turn milder over the next few days,” said Jo Wheeler, weather producer at Sky News. “Not a heatwave, let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but temperatures surpassing seasonal norms by a few degrees. However, conditions will remain unsettled with bouts of wet and windy weather spreading from the Atlantic.”
This abrupt warming is driven by a notable shift in the broader European weather pattern. The cold, blocking area of high pressure over Scandinavia—which has held much of northern Europe in its icy grip for weeks—is finally being pushed aside. As reported by the BBC, this allows much milder south-westerly winds to flow across the UK, bringing not only warmth but also a series of Atlantic weather systems laden with moisture.
“We can expect temperatures in the low to mid-teens over the weekend and into the coming week, which isn’t bad for late February,” Wheeler added. Indeed, daytime highs are forecast to reach between 10C and 14C (50-57F) across much of the country, with southern England possibly peaking at 16C (61F) on Saturday. Nighttime temperatures are expected to remain comfortably above freezing, generally falling to 5-9C (41-48F), which will significantly reduce the risk of frost. For many, this will feel like a welcome reprieve after the recent cold spell.
But while the milder air may tempt some into thinking spring is around the corner, meteorologists are quick to caution that the weather remains far from settled. The same Atlantic systems bringing warmth are also delivering persistent rain and gusty winds. Northern Ireland and western Scotland, in particular, are expected to bear the brunt of the wet weather in the coming days, with the highest rainfall totals predicted in the northwest.
The risk of flooding, already a major concern, is set to remain high. The BBC notes that parts of Cornwall have endured rain for each of the last 50 days, while some areas of the UK have experienced an astonishing 51 consecutive days of rainfall since the start of 2026. Katesbridge in Northern Ireland and Aboyne in Scotland have each received half a year’s worth of rain in just a few weeks, and recent figures from the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology confirm that Northern Ireland and the southwest of England had their wettest January on record. For southern counties of England, it was one of the five wettest Januarys since 1890.
On Friday afternoon, more than 60 flood warnings remained in force across England, including rivers Ebble, Wylye, and Avon around Salisbury; the River Avon in Ringwood and Christchurch; the River Frome around Dorchester; and the River Severn in Tewkesbury and the northern outskirts of Gloucester, according to Sky News. The Environment Agency has also issued several groundwater flood warnings in parts of Wiltshire, Hampshire, and Dorset. Groundwater flooding, which occurs when the water table rises to the surface, is particularly hazardous for properties with cellars and basements.
“There’s still the potential for temperatures to return to average values; maybe even lower than average. Gardeners be warned!” Wheeler emphasized, underscoring the unpredictable nature of late winter weather in the UK. The Met Office had earlier issued a series of yellow weather warnings for rain, snow, and ice, partly due to Storm Pedro—a system named by the French meteorological service. Cold weather alerts from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) remained in force across most of England until 6pm on Friday, excluding London and the southeast.
The wettest weather is expected over western hills, and as the predominantly south-westerly winds continue over the next week, further spells of rain and low-pressure systems are likely. This means that the ongoing threat of flooding will persist well into March, especially with ground already saturated in many regions. The BBC reports that recent snowfall will also melt rapidly as temperatures rise, potentially adding to the flood risk in vulnerable areas.
The unusual weather has also brought some rare statistics: the start of 2026 marked the longest stretch in decades before Scotland saw temperatures reach 12C, and rainfall totals in places like Aboyne (406mm), Katesbridge (495mm), Whitechurch in Wales (334mm), and Okehampton in England (473mm) have soared well above average. These figures highlight just how exceptional this winter has been—both in terms of cold and precipitation.
Despite the milder outlook, meteorologists urge people not to be lulled into a false sense of security. As Wheeler put it, “Don’t be fooled!” The UK’s late winter and early spring are notorious for their volatility, and while the coming days may feel almost spring-like, the potential for a return to colder, more typical February weather remains. For those hoping to get a head start on gardening or outdoor activities, patience—and a close eye on the forecast—will be essential.
As the UK transitions from one extreme to another, the nation’s resilience is once again being tested by the elements. From record rainfall and relentless flooding to a sudden burst of warmth, the weather continues to keep everyone guessing. For now, the message from experts is clear: enjoy the milder days, but stay prepared for whatever twists and turns the season may bring next.