On September 19, 2025, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets brazenly crossed into Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland, lingering for twelve tense minutes before departing. The incident, confirmed by the Estonian Armed Forces’ General Staff, immediately set off alarm bells across the Baltic region and within NATO. It was a stark reminder that the war in Ukraine has ripple effects far beyond its borders, and that Russia’s willingness to test NATO’s resolve remains undiminished.
Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kristen Michal, minced no words about the seriousness of the violation. In an interview with DW, she declared, “We need to wrest the money from the hands of those who are helping Russia continue this war. Russia must be hit where it hurts the most.” Her comments reflect a growing sense of urgency among NATO allies to respond more firmly to Russian provocations, especially those that threaten the integrity of alliance airspace.
The incursion over Estonia was not an isolated event. Russian drones have also breached Polish airspace, and similar incidents have unsettled Denmark and other European nations. According to Michal, these are not accidental navigational errors. “They knew that they had to leave our airspace, but they stayed. This is either unusual negligence on the part of Russia or a manifestation of malicious intent,” she explained to DW. The message, she believes, is clear: Russia is attempting to intimidate the Baltic states and discourage support for Ukraine.
Yet, if intimidation is the goal, it appears to be backfiring—at least in Estonia and its neighbors. “We are strong and determined. And we are aware that the problems are created by Russia, not by anyone else,” Michal asserted. The incident has only strengthened Estonia’s resolve to support Ukraine and invest in its own defense. Next year, Estonia plans to allocate a staggering 5% of its GDP to defense—a move that will require unpopular measures like raising taxes and cutting public spending, but one the government sees as essential. “Everyone probably understands that it will be difficult, but that is the price. Everyone wants to live in peace, for their children to live in peace, for the borders to be strong,” said Michal.
Underlying these security concerns is a larger economic battle. Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers sails the Baltic Sea, funneling fresh revenues into the Kremlin’s coffers. These revenues, according to Michal, provide approximately half of Russia’s military budget. “No one can wage war without money. If we take away Putin’s money, he will not be able to wage war,” she said. It’s a sentiment echoed across Western capitals, where leaders are searching for ways to choke off the financial lifelines that sustain the Russian war effort.
In recent months, Ukraine has taken matters into its own hands with a campaign of long-range drone strikes targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure. Since early August 2025, these attacks have disrupted refinery operations, slashed export revenues, and triggered gasoline shortages across Russia. The International Energy Agency, based in Paris, downgraded its outlook for Russia in early October, predicting that refinery processing rates would remain suppressed until at least mid-2026. As Atlantic Council reported, car owners in Russia are now facing queues for gasoline not seen since the early 1990s—a visible sign that the war’s costs are reaching ordinary Russians.
The strategy, sometimes dubbed “drone sanctions” by Ukrainians, is inflicting real pain on the Russian economy. But experts warn that this alone is unlikely to spark meaningful domestic opposition to the war. The Kremlin has gone to great lengths to shield most Russians from the conflict’s impact, concentrating military recruitment in disadvantaged regions and among prison populations. Meanwhile, repression inside Russia has reached new heights. According to the UK government and international sources, at least one million Russians have been killed or wounded in the conflict as of October 2025. Yet, despite mounting losses and economic stagnation outside the defense sector, no significant anti-war movement has emerged. The Kremlin’s grip remains ironclad, with opposition figures exiled, imprisoned, or silenced, and the media muzzled.
With internal dissent unlikely, Western countries are stepping up external pressure. On October 15, 2025, the UK government imposed sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with a major number of shadow fleet tankers and collaborating companies from China, India, and the Middle East. Rosneft and Lukoil are key pillars of Russia’s oil export industry and, by extension, its war machine. “This is a huge blow for Putin’s war machine,” the UK government emphasized in a statement. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper added, “At this critical moment for Ukraine, Europe is stepping up. Together, the UK and our allies are piling the pressure on Putin—going after his oil, gas, and shadow fleet—and we will not relent until he abandons his failed war of conquest and gets serious about peace.”
Both Rosneft and Lukoil have previously been sanctioned by the USA, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine, but the new UK measures go further by targeting the shadow fleet and associated logistics networks. The sanctions also hit several collaborating companies in China, India, and the Middle East, including port operators in Dongying, China, and India’s Nayara Energy Limited. The move is part of a broader effort to tighten the economic noose around Russia, particularly by targeting its energy exports—a sector still heavily reliant on buyers in China and India.
As Atlantic Council analysts have pointed out, effective Western action should include not just sanctions but also efforts to bring down global oil prices and end all European purchases of Russian energy, whether direct or via third parties. Military aid to Ukraine is also seen as crucial, with calls for more weapons systems to stabilize the front lines and allow Kyiv to expand its campaign against Russian infrastructure. The hope is that by escalating both economic and military pressure, the West can curtail Moscow’s ability to finance the war and, eventually, compel Putin to seek a settlement.
But as Prime Minister Michal noted, unity and determination are essential. She criticized Europe’s earlier approach of “politeness” toward Putin, arguing that only a firm, united front can deter further aggression. “The only thing that helps against Russia is determination, a firm position, steadfastness and unity,” she said. For Estonia and its NATO allies, the lesson is clear: the price of peace is vigilance, investment, and an unwavering commitment to collective security.
As the conflict grinds on, the stakes remain high—not just for Ukraine, but for all of Europe. The coming months will test the resolve of Western leaders, the resilience of their economies, and the strength of their alliances. But as recent events show, the world is far from powerless in the face of Russian aggression. Through coordinated sanctions, military support, and a clear-eyed understanding of what’s at stake, the West is determined to ensure that the rules of the international order are upheld—and that peace, though costly, remains within reach.