UK retail sales growth took a noticeable dip in October 2025, with shoppers across the country holding back on purchases while they waited for the government’s upcoming budget and anticipated Black Friday deals, according to new data released by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) on November 11. The figures paint a picture of a nation in economic limbo, with uncertainty about future tax rises and the lure of discounts prompting many to hit pause on non-essential spending.
Total retail sales in October rose just 1.6% compared to the same month a year earlier, marking the slowest pace since May and falling below the 12-month average. Like-for-like sales growth—an important measure that strips out the effect of new store openings—slipped from 2% in September to 1.5% in October, the BRC reported. The slowdown was particularly pronounced in the non-food sector, where sales of toys, electronics, and clothing showed virtually no growth at all.
According to Bloomberg, the subdued figures reflect a broader trend of caution among UK shoppers. Many are choosing to wait for Black Friday, which falls on November 28 this year, in hopes of snagging better deals. Others are simply bracing for whatever new fiscal measures Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves might unveil in her November 26 Budget statement. The prospect of tax rises, aimed at shoring up stretched public finances, has left both consumers and retailers on edge.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive officer of the BRC, summed up the mood in the sector: "Retailers are counting on Black Friday to deliver a vital boost, but looming Budget decisions risk undermining fragile consumer confidence." Her comment, reported by Bloomberg, captures the delicate balancing act facing both shoppers and businesses as the holiday season approaches.
While the non-food sector faltered, food sales held up somewhat better in October. The BRC reported total food sales up by 3.5%, with like-for-like sales rising 3.1%. But even here, the numbers tell a complicated story. The growth was driven more by higher prices than by shoppers buying more. According to the BRC, grocery price inflation slowed to 4.7% in the four weeks leading up to November 2—down from 5.2% a month earlier, which was the highest rate since January 2024. This easing of inflation was largely thanks to shoppers searching for bargains and taking advantage of promotions as they tried to keep spending in check before the Budget.
Worldpanel, formerly known as Kantar, provided further insight into these changing shopping habits. Their data showed that about 30% of all grocery spending in October went on promoted items. Shoppers are not just cutting back—they’re getting savvier, opting for special supermarket meals at home instead of dining out, and hunting for deals wherever they can find them. This trend is expected to intensify as the festive season draws closer. Worldpanel predicts that sales of premium own-brand food will double in the run-up to Christmas, hitting £1 billion for the first time in December 2025.
The run-up to Black Friday is particularly crucial for grocers and online retailers. Last year, Black Friday sales delivered an average uplift of 114%, with Amazon, Tesco, and Asda emerging as the top three destinations for shoppers, according to Worldpanel’s data. This year, retailers are hoping for a similar boost, especially as many consumers have held off on major purchases in October. The stakes are high: a strong Black Friday could help offset the sluggish sales earlier in the autumn, but much depends on consumer sentiment and the outcome of the Budget.
Retailers aren’t the only ones feeling the strain. UK grocers, including giants like Tesco and Sainsbury, have been vocal about the potential impact of new taxes. In a letter sent to Chancellor Rachel Reeves last month, they warned that households would "inevitably feel the impact" of any tax increases, especially if they come in the form of higher business rates for supermarkets. The message was clear: with many families already tightening their belts, further fiscal pressure could dampen spending even more.
The uncertainty is palpable on both sides. For consumers, the looming Budget and the possibility of higher taxes are causing many to hold back on discretionary purchases. For retailers, the pressure is on to entice shoppers back with promotions and special offers—especially as Black Friday approaches. Yet, even with these efforts, the broader economic picture remains one of caution and waiting.
It’s not just the big-ticket items that are suffering. The BRC noted that non-food spending was essentially flat in October, with toys, electronics, and clothing all struggling to attract buyers. This is a significant shift from previous years, when the approach of the holiday season typically saw a surge in spending on gifts and gadgets. Instead, many households are focusing on essentials and looking for ways to stretch their budgets further.
Supermarkets have responded by ramping up promotions and expanding their range of premium own-label products, hoping to capture a bigger share of the Christmas market. The strategy appears to be working, at least in part: Worldpanel expects sales of these premium lines to reach unprecedented levels in December. But with so much riding on a few key weeks, the pressure is on for retailers to deliver the goods—literally and figuratively.
Meanwhile, the government faces its own set of challenges. Chancellor Reeves is expected to announce tax rises in her November 26 Budget, as she seeks to rebuild public finances stretched by years of economic shocks. The timing couldn’t be more delicate. With Black Friday just two days later, any hint of fiscal tightening could further dent consumer confidence and undermine the very recovery retailers are hoping for.
All eyes are now on the end of November. Retailers, consumers, and policymakers alike are hoping for a successful Black Friday to kickstart the holiday shopping season, even as they brace for the potential fallout from the Budget. For many, the next few weeks will be a test of resilience, adaptability, and, perhaps, a little bit of luck.
In a year marked by uncertainty and shifting priorities, the UK’s retail sector finds itself at a crossroads. Whether shoppers return in force for Black Friday—and whether retailers can weather the storm of new fiscal measures—remains to be seen. For now, the message from the high street is clear: every sale counts, and every shopper matters.
