After a record-shattering spring that left much of England and Wales basking in heat, the UK is bracing for more sweltering days as summer 2026 gets underway. Forecasters are sounding the alarm: the coming months are shaping up to be hotter and potentially drier than usual, with the possibility of more heatwaves looming large—driven in part by the growing influence of an El Niño weather event.
According to the ECMWF weather model, Gloucestershire and as many as 21 other English counties could see temperatures soar to 30°C or higher as soon as mid-June. Specifically, the model shows highs of 29°C in the southeast on June 15, with the mercury possibly touching 32°C in the same region the following day. Even the north of England isn’t being left out, with 29°C to 30°C predicted, while central Scotland could see a toasty 24°C. These numbers are well above the seasonal average, as highlighted by temperature anomaly maps that paint England, Wales, and southern Scotland in deep red for June 16—a clear sign of the heat to come.
But does this mean the UK is in for another official heatwave? Not quite yet. As explained by GloucestershireLive, a heatwave is only declared when temperatures hit the heatwave threshold—ranging from 25°C to 28°C depending on the county—for three consecutive days. So far, the latest data doesn’t confirm that threshold will be met, but the warning signs are there.
The Met Office, Britain’s national weather agency, is also forecasting a summer that’s hotter than usual. In its three-month outlook, the agency notes a higher-than-normal chance of a hot summer, which could increase the risk of heatwaves and other heat-related impacts. This follows a late May heatwave that broke records, with Kew Gardens in London clocking a blistering 35.1°C and some areas experiencing six straight days above 30°C. For context, both the spring and May monthly maximum temperature records were smashed by more than 2°C, according to The Independent.
What’s behind this persistent heat? Two main drivers are at play: the ongoing warming of the UK’s climate and the likely emergence of an El Niño event. El Niño, a naturally occurring phase in the Pacific Ocean, often brings warmer and drier conditions to the UK during summer. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has pegged the chance of El Niño forming before November at 90%, with some experts predicting it could be one of the strongest on record.
Dr. Emily Carlisle, a scientist at the Met Office, summed up the situation: “This spring highlights both the natural variability of the UK’s weather and the longer-term warming we are observing. While conditions varied through the season, all three months of meteorological spring recorded mean temperatures within the UK’s top ten warmest on record. The fact that nine of the ten warmest springs in England have occurred since 2007 illustrates this ongoing shift in the UK’s climate.”
The immediate forecast for June is a bit of a mixed bag. The Met Office expects Atlantic frontal systems to bring showers and longer spells of rain at the start of the month, with temperatures close to or slightly below normal. However, by mid-June, high pressure is likely to return, bringing more settled and drier conditions—especially in the south. This is when temperatures are expected to climb above normal, and it may even become hot in some southern regions. Towards the end of June, low pressure could return, especially in the south, increasing the likelihood of heavy showers and thunderstorms, even as the heat persists.
Looking further ahead, the pattern for July and August appears to be one of continued warmth, with the potential for more heatwaves. Seasonal models, including those from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), are showing typical El Niño weather patterns for Europe: anomalously high sea-level pressure in northern regions and above-average temperatures, particularly in southeastern parts of the continent. For the UK, this translates to a high probability of above-average temperatures all summer long.
Breaking it down month by month, June 2026 is expected to start unsettled and cooler than late May, with above-average rainfall, but should turn drier and warmer as high pressure builds in the second half of the month. July is likely to be warm—sometimes hot—but with changeable weather, including both settled and unsettled spells. August could be the hottest and driest month of the summer, especially in the south and east, although brief unsettled periods are possible, particularly in the west.
The story of 2026’s summer is also a story of climate change in action. As Sky News points out, the UK experienced one of its hottest Mays on record this year, with temperatures repeatedly climbing above 30°C. This follows 2025, which became the hottest summer on record for the UK, and July 2022, which still holds the all-time temperature record at 40.3°C in Lincolnshire. The frequency and intensity of these hot spells are part of a broader trend, with warmer springs and summers becoming the new normal.
Experts warn that while the heat may be welcome for sun-seekers, it comes with risks. More frequent and intense heatwaves can have serious health impacts, strain water supplies, and increase the risk of wildfires. The Met Office’s outlook for June to August 2026 notes that “the chance of a hot summer is higher than normal, which could increase the risk of heatwaves and other heat-related impacts.”
So, what should people across the UK expect as summer unfolds? In the short term, pack an umbrella for those early June showers, but don’t put away the sun cream just yet. By mid-to-late June, the mercury is set to rise again, and the odds of another spell of very hot weather are climbing. For those in Gloucestershire and the other 20 counties on the hot list, prepare for a return of 30°C-plus days. And as July and August arrive, don’t be surprised if the summer of 2026 writes yet another chapter in the UK’s ongoing record-breaking heat saga.
While the full summer forecast will be issued in the first week of June, the signals are clear: the UK is on track for another season where the weather is anything but ordinary.