Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest convention, held December 18–21, 2025, in Phoenix, has thrown the spotlight onto the early maneuvering for the 2028 presidential race, with Vice President JD Vance emerging as the clear favorite among conservative activists. Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA and widow of the late conservative leader Charlie Kirk, made waves when she endorsed Vance for president, pledging to marshal the organization’s considerable resources to help elect him as the 48th president of the United States.
“We are going to get my husband’s friend JD Vance elected for 48 in the most resounding way possible,” Kirk declared during her rousing speech at AmericaFest, according to ABC News. This endorsement, one of the first major public nods for 2028, signals not just a boost for Vance but a coordinated effort to shape the next chapter of the Republican Party’s leadership.
Turning Point USA, known for its grassroots influence and youthful base, is already putting boots on the ground in key early primary states. Tyler Bower, the group’s chief operating officer, told ABC News that TPUSA is building out staff and operations in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada—states that traditionally kick off the presidential primary season. Offices in New Hampshire and Nevada are set to open in early 2026. Bower explained, “He’s the clear-cut leader by a lot. This isn’t highly competitive. He’s the vice president of the US.” He added, “We want to vocalize early that we are leading the recruiting and preparation effort in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada for JD.”
While Vance has not officially declared his candidacy, he hasn’t closed the door, either. In a November interview with Fox News, Vance said he was focused on his current role as vice president and the critical 2026 midterms. He emphasized that discussions about 2028 would occur with President Trump after next year’s elections. A source close to Vance told The Hill, “The VP is immensely grateful for the support of Erika and the entire Turning Point team. It’s tremendous. But politically he’s entirely committed to the midterms and won’t make a decision about 2028 until after Election Day.”
That hasn’t stopped Turning Point USA from going all-in. Andrew Kolvet, executive producer of “The Charlie Kirk Show,” noted on Fox News that Charlie Kirk had been quietly backing Vance for months before his assassination in September. “If anybody was around the org in any way, shape, or form, they knew that Charlie was very close to the vice president and had basically endorsed him already for months beforehand, so it was no surprise for us,” Kolvet said. The group’s early and open support is seen as a move to lock in the conservative base and get a jump on Democrats, who face a wide-open field for 2028.
Indeed, the Democratic side is expected to be crowded, with potential contenders like California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Vice President Kamala Harris all floated as possible nominees. Vance, never one to shy away from a jab, predicted at AmericaFest that Democrats would ultimately select “a California liberal who’s presided over rolling blackouts, open borders, and unchecked violent gangs,” drawing boos from the crowd, as reported by the Denver Gazette. He singled out Newsom and Harris as likely candidates and dismissed other Democratic hopefuls as “cogs in a machine” aiming to weaken voters, while he and Trump work to “break that machine.”
Vance’s speech at AmericaFest also addressed the elephant in the room: infighting within the Republican Party. The event, which featured conservative heavyweights from Ben Shapiro to Tucker Carlson, saw open debates on policy and the future direction of the movement. Vance acknowledged the disputes but called for unity and teamwork. “Winning demands teamwork, and I am honored to be on Turning Point’s team, I’m honored to be on your team, and I will stay that way,” he told attendees, earning applause.
The event was also a showcase for the next generation of Republican leaders, with featured guests including Fox News anchor Bret Baier, “FOX & Friends Weekend” co-host Griff Jenkins, Mayor Glenn Jacobs of Knox County, Tennessee, and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. As Brian Kilmeade discussed on Fox, AmericaFest served as a preview of the 2026 and 2028 elections, highlighting emerging GOP voices and strategies.
Turning Point USA’s early endorsement appears to be paying off in the polls. A December 2025 hypothetical Republican primary poll by AtlasIntel showed Vance leading with 47% support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 23% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 13%. The group’s own straw poll was even more decisive: Vance garnered 84.2% support, with Rubio at 4.8% and DeSantis at 2.9%. Other potential candidates like Donald Trump Jr., Senator Ted Cruz, and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin trailed far behind.
Despite the strong polling, Vance’s allies insist there won’t be a coronation. “If he chooses to run, he knows there’s not going to be a coronation. Nobody wants that,” a source close to the vice president told The Hill. “The more the merrier.” Former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany echoed this sentiment, telling Fox News, “I think it’s very important that the Republican Party have a competitive primary.”
President Trump, for his part, has not endorsed a successor and has hinted that both Vance and Rubio could feature on the 2028 ticket. The vice president and Rubio have publicly brushed off any talk of rivalry, focusing instead on defending GOP congressional majorities in the critical 2026 midterms—a contest that could shape the trajectory for 2028. As Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told The Hill, “They’re focused on the House, not 2028, because if you don’t focus on that, then 2028 gathers less importance because the idea is that you’re electing Vance in the way they elected H.W. to carry on the trajectory.”
Still, Vance’s profile is clearly on the rise. His approval rating in polling averages has ticked up from around 44% in November to just over 45% this month, while Trump’s approval rating has rebounded to 44.8%, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ. Republicans hope these trends continue as both Trump and Vance hit the campaign trail in 2026.
Meanwhile, Democrats are not standing still. Newsom has said he’ll wait until after the 2026 elections to decide on a run, while Harris has hinted at another White House bid, declining to run for California governor. A poll from last month put Newsom three points ahead of Vance in a potential matchup, underscoring that the road to the White House remains wide open.
Looking ahead, Erika Kirk and Turning Point reportedly plan to focus on winning over young women voters in 2028, a move that could further strengthen Vance’s prospects, according to the Washington Examiner. As the dust settles from AmericaFest, one thing is clear: the race for the White House is already well underway, and the battle lines are being drawn earlier than ever.
With the conservative movement’s biggest grassroots engine now firmly behind him, JD Vance has vaulted to the front of the 2028 Republican pack—even as the party and the nation brace for another round of high-stakes political drama.
