Americans preparing for Thanksgiving in 2025 are facing a familiar dilemma: the cost of the centerpiece turkey is on the rise again, but not quite as high as it was in the recent past. According to FinanceBuzz, shoppers can expect to pay around $34.65 for a 15-pound turkey this year—an 11% jump from 2024’s prices. While that uptick may prompt some to do a double-take at the supermarket, there’s a bit of good news hidden in those numbers. The 2025 price tag, though higher than last year, is still noticeably lower than what consumers shelled out in 2022 and 2023, as reported by TNND.
But why the increase at all, especially when prices had been trending downward? The answer, it turns out, is rooted in biology and biosecurity. The American Farm Bureau Federation points to a persistent foe: bird flu, or more formally, avian influenza. This highly contagious disease has swept through U.S. turkey flocks, leaving the population at its lowest level in forty years. The numbers tell the story: the U.S. turkey flock is estimated at 195 million birds in 2025, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation—a figure not seen since the mid-1980s, as CNN highlights. Multiple outbreaks of avian disease have decimated flocks, forcing producers to cull birds and tighten biosecurity, which in turn squeezes the supply chain.
So, what does this mean for Thanksgiving tables across the country? For most, it’s a matter of paying a bit more and shopping a little smarter. The price of turkey varies dramatically from state to state, reflecting transportation costs, local demand, and supply chain quirks. Hawaii tops the list with the highest average price—a whopping $55.70 for a 15-pound bird. Alaska follows at $42.35, with Iowa at $41.35 and Montana at $40.85. On the other end of the spectrum, bargain hunters in Oklahoma will find the lowest average price, just $24.85 for the same-sized turkey.
Other states with relatively affordable turkeys include Texas at $25.85, Louisiana and Tennessee at $27.35, and Illinois and Kentucky at $28.40. Meanwhile, New Englanders are paying among the highest prices in the contiguous United States, with Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Rhode Island all averaging $39.85 for a 15-pounder. The differences are stark, and they can make a real impact on family budgets, especially for those hosting large gatherings.
Despite the price hikes, there’s some relief to be found. According to the USDA, the national average wholesale price for turkeys is forecast to be 40% higher than last year. That sounds alarming, but it’s important to remember that retail prices—what shoppers actually pay at the grocery store—are influenced by a broader set of factors, including store promotions, regional supply, and even last-minute deals as Thanksgiving approaches. And, crucially, even with these increases, the 2025 prices remain below the eye-watering highs of the previous two years. It’s a small consolation, but one that many families will take gladly.
For those worried about empty shelves or last-minute turkey hunts, industry experts offer some reassurance. Despite the reduced supply, there is no expectation of a significant turkey shortage this Thanksgiving. As CNN reports, “industry experts do not anticipate any major turkey shortages for the 2025 Thanksgiving holiday.” The system, for all its challenges, appears resilient enough to meet the annual surge in demand. Shoppers may need to be flexible with sizes or brands, but most will find a bird for their holiday feast.
Behind these numbers and forecasts lies a complex web of causes. Bird flu remains the central culprit, but it’s far from the only factor. The outbreaks have forced producers to make tough choices about flock sizes, culling affected birds to prevent further spread. This not only shrinks the overall supply but also drives up costs for farmers, who must invest in enhanced biosecurity measures and sometimes rebuild their flocks from scratch. The ripple effects are felt all the way down the supply chain, from feed suppliers to processors to the supermarkets themselves.
There’s also the question of geography. States like Hawaii and Alaska naturally face higher prices due to transportation costs—the simple reality of shipping frozen poultry over thousands of miles. But even within the continental U.S., prices can swing widely based on local production levels and consumer demand. In the Midwest, for example, where turkey farming is more prevalent, prices tend to be lower. In coastal or densely populated regions, costs can climb quickly.
It’s worth noting that while turkey prices are grabbing headlines, they’re just one piece of the broader inflation puzzle facing American consumers. Food prices in general have been volatile in recent years, buffeted by supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and global events. But for many, the Thanksgiving turkey is more than just a meal—it’s a symbol of tradition and togetherness, and its price carries outsized emotional weight.
For some families, the higher cost may prompt creative solutions: smaller birds, alternative main courses, or potluck-style gatherings where guests contribute dishes. Others may simply absorb the extra expense, prioritizing the holiday ritual over the bottom line. And for those feeling the pinch most acutely, food banks and community organizations often step in to help ensure that everyone can enjoy a Thanksgiving meal, regardless of market fluctuations.
Looking ahead, the outlook for turkey prices remains uncertain. Much will depend on the trajectory of avian diseases and the industry’s ability to rebuild flocks. Advances in biosecurity and veterinary medicine offer hope, but the threat of future outbreaks lingers. In the meantime, shoppers are advised to plan ahead, compare prices, and—if possible—shop early to secure the best deals.
As Thanksgiving approaches on November 27, 2025, Americans are once again reminded of the delicate balance between tradition and the realities of the marketplace. The turkey may cost a bit more this year, but for many, the chance to gather with loved ones around the table is worth every penny.
