As the world turns its attention to Oslo for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement, the atmosphere surrounding this year’s award is anything but calm. With the decision already finalized earlier this week, according to Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, speculation and political pressure have reached a fever pitch—thanks in no small part to the relentless campaign by U.S. President Donald Trump and his supporters.
On Monday, October 6, 2025, Frydnes confirmed to Norwegian tabloid VG that the committee had settled on its choice for this year’s laureate. In a follow-up interview with public broadcaster NRK, he clarified a crucial point: any potential peace deal related to the Israel-Gaza conflict, currently in the diplomatic pipeline, would only be considered for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. The nomination window for 2025 closed on January 31, just after Trump’s return to the White House, making any subsequent developments off-limits for this year’s prize.
This procedural detail hasn’t deterred President Trump from making his case—loudly and publicly. Trump has claimed credit for ending “seven wars” and hinted that an eighth resolution is close at hand. At a recent press conference, he stated, “I have no idea… Marco would tell you we settled seven wars. We're close to settling an eighth. I think we'll end up settling the Russia situation… I don't think anybody in history has settled that many. But perhaps they'll find a reason not to give it to me.” According to Bloomberg, Trump’s comments reflect both his confidence and his suspicion that the committee may look for reasons to deny him the honor.
This isn’t the first time an American president has sought or received the Nobel Peace Prize. Barack Obama was awarded the prize in 2009, just months into his first term—a decision that surprised many observers at the time. Other U.S. leaders on the Nobel roll include Jimmy Carter, Woodrow Wilson, and Theodore Roosevelt. Trump, however, has taken a more direct approach to lobbying for the prize, turning it into a public campaign with the help of his family and administration. His son Eric and the White House have amplified the call online, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has joined the chorus, posting on X, “Give @realDonaldTrump the Nobel Peace Prize - he deserves it!”
Not to be outdone, the Israeli Hostages Families Forum has also advocated for Trump’s recognition, citing his “unwavering commitment and extraordinary leadership” following the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. In July, Netanyahu formally nominated Trump for the prize, as did the government of Pakistan in June. Yet, as CBS News reports, the Nobel Committee does not publicly comment on nominees, and names cannot be revealed for 50 years under committee rules. Over 330 candidates were submitted for the 2025 award, but the committee’s deliberations remain shrouded in secrecy.
The Nobel Peace Prize, established by Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel, is awarded to the individual or organization that has “conferred the greatest benefit on mankind.” While Nobel’s will emphasized efforts to foster fraternity among nations, reduce standing armies, and promote peace congresses, the committee has honored a wide range of achievements, from arms control to climate action. The selection process is rigorous: after nominations close, the committee creates a shortlist, conducts assessments, and makes its final decision by majority vote—though it strives for unanimity.
With Trump’s lobbying in full swing, Norway finds itself in an awkward diplomatic position. The Nobel Committee is independent, but the prize is awarded in Oslo, and the Norwegian government is currently negotiating a trade deal with the U.S. Norwegian Trade Minister Cecilie Myrseth is seeking relief from a 15% tariff on exports, while nearly 40% of Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund is invested in the U.S. Some observers worry that denying Trump the prize could provoke retaliation from Washington, adding a layer of geopolitical tension to the proceedings.
Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide has been quick to emphasize that the Norwegian government has no influence over the Nobel Committee’s decisions. “The committee operates independently,” he told Bloomberg, attempting to distance official Norway from the swirling controversy. Still, the optics are hard to ignore, especially as Trump’s campaign for the prize has turned into a political spectacle, with allies and critics alike weighing in from around the globe.
Inside the White House, expectations for Trump’s chances remain low. According to sources cited by CBS News, there is little belief that the Nobel Committee will give the president a “fair hearing.” Some foreign policy experts point out that not all of the conflicts Trump claims to have resolved are fully settled, and it’s unclear whether U.S. actions were decisive in each case. The committee is known for favoring the “durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals,” as the Associated Press reported. One expert noted that the committee is unlikely to reward overt political pressure, and that its focus remains on lasting achievements rather than headline-grabbing deals.
Yet, precedent does exist for awarding the prize early in a leader’s term. Obama’s 2009 win came before he had secured any major peace agreements, a fact that Trump’s supporters have not hesitated to highlight. Still, the committee’s reluctance to be seen as bowing to political lobbying may outweigh any desire to repeat history. According to the Nobel website, nominations are not endorsements, and the committee’s silence on the matter is deliberate.
The prize itself is both symbolic and substantial: laureates receive a gold medal bearing Alfred Nobel’s image, a diploma, and a monetary award. The medal’s reverse side features three men embracing, symbolizing international fraternity, and is inscribed with the Latin phrase “For peace and fraternity among peoples.” Since 1901, the Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded 105 times, with 139 individual and organizational laureates, including such luminaries as Frédéric Passy, Jean Henry Durant, Malala Yousafzai, and Desmond Tutu.
For now, the world waits. The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner will be announced Friday, October 10, at 5 a.m. Eastern Time, and awarded at a formal ceremony in Oslo on December 10. Whether Trump’s name will be added to the illustrious list remains to be seen—but the decision, at least for this year, is already sealed. Any breakthroughs in the Middle East, no matter how dramatic, will have to wait their turn for 2026.
As the curtain rises on another Nobel season, the intersection of peace, politics, and prestige is on full display, reminding us that the pursuit of harmony is as complicated—and as contentious—as ever.