Six months ago, what began as a tense confrontation in Washington between U.S. President Donald Trump and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has now erupted into a full-blown diplomatic crisis, with implications rippling across Africa, Asia, and the West. The initial spark—a charged Oval Office exchange in which Trump accused South Africa of "white genocide," a claim that has been widely discredited by independent researchers and even contradicted by elements of his own administration—has evolved into a seismic shift in global power politics.
On December 2, 2025, President Trump announced that the United States would not invite South Africa to the 2026 G20 Summit in Washington and would push for Pretoria’s removal from the G20 altogether, according to IDN-InDepthNews. The move blindsided not only Pretoria, but also capitals in New Delhi, Brasília, and Beijing, and even caught Washington’s own policy circles off guard. For many, especially in Africa and India, the decision felt like more than a diplomatic slight—it was a direct challenge to the inclusive, multipolar vision of global governance that the Global South has long championed.
South Africa’s role on the world stage is far from symbolic. As a leading voice in the African Union, SADC, and the G77, and as a member of BRICS since 2011, South Africa has been a bridge between continents and ideologies. Its presence in BRICS transformed the bloc from a mere acronym into a truly global coalition, connecting Africa to powerful partners in Latin America, Eurasia, and beyond. Removing South Africa from the G20, many argue, would send a chilling message: African representation in global institutions is conditional and reversible—a notion fundamentally at odds with both African aspirations and India’s strategic worldview.
For India, the stakes are particularly high. Its 2023 G20 presidency was historic for bringing the African Union into the group as a permanent member, a move celebrated as a step toward a more representative global order. Now, as Trump threatens to expel South Africa, India faces a three-pronged challenge: defending its vision of a more inclusive G20, ensuring Africa remains a multipolar partner rather than a pawn in U.S.–China rivalry, and maintaining balance within BRICS, where South Africa’s presence helps moderate China’s growing influence.
BRICS itself is undergoing a transformation. The bloc, which by 2025 has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, is now a continental bridge linking Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. According to IDN-InDepthNews, BRICS has gone beyond symbolism, with the New Development Bank financing infrastructure projects, local-currency trade agreements reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar, and collaborative efforts in climate justice and digital public infrastructure. South Africa plays a stabilizing role within this expanded constellation, and its absence would likely tilt the balance further toward China—an outcome that worries both India and the United States.
China, for its part, has kept a low profile, but the strategic advantage is clear. Every aspect of Trump’s move—reinforcing perceptions of Western inconsistency, nudging South Africa closer to Beijing, and making BRICS appear more essential—plays to China’s strengths. As the U.S. risks alienating Africa, China emerges as the stable, long-term alternative, quietly consolidating its influence in both BRICS and the wider Global South.
Amid this high-level maneuvering, the voices of civil society are growing louder. On December 4, 2025, the inaugural BRICS People’s Summit convened in Rio de Janeiro, gathering social movements, unions, students, and NGOs from across the bloc. This event marked the debut of the BRICS People’s Civil Council, a body established in 2024 during the Kazan Summit to provide a permanent channel for citizen dialogue with member governments. As reported by CubaSí, the council aims to transform grassroots demands into concrete policy proposals, strengthen economic cooperation, and push for a financial architecture less reliant on the U.S. dollar.
Former Brazilian President and current head of the New Development Bank, Dilma Rousseff, celebrated the launch of the council as a milestone for citizen participation. "For the first time, the peoples of the BRICS countries have a permanent channel for dialogue with their governments," Rousseff stated in a video message. João Pedro Stedile, leader of Brazil’s Landless Workers’ Movement and a representative on the council, explained, "We are going to formalize the permanent functioning of this space and initiate a cycle of debates on the reconfiguration of global geopolitics." The summit, the last major BRICS event under Brazil’s presidency before India takes over in 2026, signals a new era of institutionalized citizen engagement within the bloc.
The council’s agenda is ambitious. BRICS countries account for roughly 70 percent of global agricultural production, and family farming within the bloc is responsible for 80 percent of the planet’s food value. Organizers argue that this dominance brings with it a responsibility to promote more sustainable and equitable food systems, capable of addressing both climate and social challenges. Food security will be a core focus for the council as it seeks to influence the bloc’s strategic direction.
The backdrop to these developments is a confident and assertive Africa, determined not to be sidelined. At the 2025 Johannesburg G20 Summit, African leaders called for climate finance, investment in local mineral processing, debt relief, financial reform, and balanced discussions of global conflicts. Trump’s decision to boycott the summit and threaten South Africa’s expulsion was widely perceived as an effort to suppress Africa’s rising influence. Yet, African diplomats responded with resolve rather than resignation, declaring, "We will not be silenced." Their message was clear: if global systems punish independent voices, then those systems must change.
India’s partnership with Africa is built on trust and shared experience, not coercion. Over decades, India has invested in training programs, digital public infrastructure, renewable energy, maritime security, affordable healthcare, and concessional loans. This cooperation is grounded in solidarity and mutual respect, and many African nations see India’s development path as a model for their own aspirations.
For the United States, the current crisis exposes a contradiction between strategic interests and political impulses. Africa is vital to U.S. supply chains, economic growth, and efforts to counter China’s global influence. Yet, as IDN-InDepthNews notes, Trump’s move to exclude South Africa from the G20 undermines America’s long-term interests and the message that it seeks a respectful partnership with Africa. Many U.S. diplomats privately acknowledge that punitive measures often backfire, isolating the U.S. at a time when global cooperation is more crucial than ever.
The future of global governance may well hinge on how this crisis is resolved. If the U.S.–South Africa rift persists, BRICS and its Africa-focused partnerships are likely to grow stronger, further challenging the dominance of Western-led institutions. India, Africa, and the United States each have a role to play: defending inclusive governance, building coalitions across the Global South, and choosing strategy over short-term political gain.
As the world stands at this crossroads, the outcome will shape not only the G20 and BRICS, but the very nature of international cooperation in the years ahead. The choices made now—by leaders, civil society, and ordinary citizens—will determine whether the next global order is more balanced, more representative, and, ultimately, more human.
