On October 23, 2025, President Donald Trump found himself at the center of a political storm that could reshape the future of the Middle East. In a candid interview with Time magazine, Trump revealed that he was weighing whether to urge Israel to release Marwan Barghouti, a popular Palestinian political figure who has spent more than two decades behind bars. "I am literally being confronted with that question about 15 minutes before you called," Trump said. "That was the question. That was my question of the day. So I'll be making a decision."
Barghouti, now 66, has become a symbol for many Palestinians. Arrested during the tumultuous Second Intifada in 2002 and convicted in 2004 for orchestrating deadly attacks—charges he has always denied—Barghouti is currently serving five life sentences plus an additional 40 years. Despite his incarceration, his stature has only grown. According to Reuters and The Telegraph, many within the Fatah movement, the West Bank’s dominant political faction, view him as the heir to the late Yasser Arafat. Some supporters even call him the "Palestinian Mandela," citing his broad appeal across Palestinian society and his perceived ability to unite disparate factions, from Fatah to Hamas.
Barghouti’s future has become headline news once again, thanks in part to a complex ceasefire deal brokered by Trump earlier this month. The 20-point plan, designed to end the two-year war between Israel and Hamas, involved Israel receiving 20 remaining living hostages held in Gaza in exchange for releasing about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. While Israel has also received the remains of 15 of 28 deceased hostages as part of the agreement, Barghouti was notably not among those released—despite reported calls from Hamas officials for his freedom.
The ceasefire deal stipulates that Hamas will disarm and play no future role in governing Gaza. This has only intensified speculation about who might fill the leadership vacuum in the territory. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, now 89, was elected in 2005 to a four-year term, but elections have been repeatedly postponed ever since. Abbas controls parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, while Hamas has ruled Gaza, which has been left devastated by years of conflict. Barghouti, as a senior Fatah figure and a rare leader respected by both grassroots activists and rival factions, is seen by many as the only viable figure who could unify Palestinians and potentially guide them toward a two-state solution.
Behind the scenes, the question of Barghouti’s release has attracted powerful advocates. Ron Lauder, a prominent Jewish American community leader and close friend of Trump, has privately lobbied for Barghouti’s freedom. According to The Times of Israel, Lauder even offered to travel to negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, to make the case for including Barghouti in the prisoner exchange. Lauder reportedly suggested that Barghouti could be exiled outside the Palestinian territories as a compromise, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vetoed the idea.
Israel’s government remains deeply divided on the issue. In August, the country’s far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, visited Barghouti in prison, telling him, "You will not win." The Israeli security establishment is adamantly opposed to his release, citing his conviction for organizing attacks during the Second Intifada. Yet, among Palestinians, Barghouti’s refusal to seek a pardon or admit guilt has only amplified his image as a steadfast leader. As Reuters reports, many in the West Bank and Gaza see him as the only figure who could offer dynamic leadership, especially compared to the aging Abbas.
The question of Barghouti’s treatment in prison has also come under scrutiny. Two recently released Palestinian prisoners claimed that Barghouti was beaten unconscious by Israeli security personnel during a prison transfer on September 14, 2025. The Israel Prison Service, however, has denied these claims, calling them "fake" and insisting that it "operates in accordance with the law, while ensuring the safety and health of all inmates." Reuters was unable to independently verify the allegations, but the incident has further fueled debate about Barghouti’s fate and the broader conditions faced by Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
Trump’s ceasefire deal was only the latest in a series of high-stakes diplomatic maneuvers. Over the past ten days, top U.S. officials have shuttled between Washington and Jerusalem to ensure the agreement holds. Trump himself visited Israel last week, followed by his envoy Steve Witkoff, former envoy Jared Kushner, Vice President JD Vance, and, most recently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Their presence underscores the Biden administration’s (and now Trump’s) determination to prevent a relapse into violence as the region teeters on the edge of a new era.
JD Vance, winding down a three-day visit to Israel, told reporters on October 23 that Gaza’s reconstruction in areas free of Hamas could begin soon. "We could start reconstruction of the areas that are free of Hamas very quickly. We think that we could potentially get hundreds of thousands of Gazans living in that area very quickly," he said. "But again, this is all still pretty early. But that’s the basic idea."
Meanwhile, the Israeli political landscape remains as fractious as ever. On October 22, a bill led by opposition members but backed by ultranationalists Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich narrowly passed Israel’s 120-seat parliament by a vote of 25-24. The bill aimed to annex the West Bank, a move that would have seismic implications for the peace process. Netanyahu’s office swiftly condemned the vote as a "deliberate political provocation" intended to sow division during Vance’s visit. The Likud party, led by Netanyahu, did not support the bill, making it unlikely to proceed. As Vice President Vance put it, "If it was a political stunt, it is a very stupid one, and I personally take some insult to it."
Trump, for his part, has made clear that he opposes any annexation of the West Bank, citing commitments made to Arab allies. "It won't happen. It won’t happen because I gave my word to the Arab countries. And you can't do that now," he told Time. "We’ve had great Arab support. It won’t happen because I gave my word to the Arab countries... Israel would lose all of its support from the United States if that happened."
Looking ahead, Trump believes that the next phase of Middle East stabilization will come through the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel via the Abraham Accords. "I think we’re very close," he said. "I think Saudi Arabia is going to lead the way." Pressed on timing, Trump predicted that Saudi Arabia would sign the accords by the end of the year, adding, "While I’m there, it’s going to only get better and stronger, and it’s going to be perfect."
As the region stands at a crossroads, the fate of Marwan Barghouti has become a litmus test for the future of Palestinian leadership and the prospects for peace. With Trump’s decision pending and political forces on all sides maneuvering for advantage, the coming weeks could prove pivotal—not just for Barghouti, but for the entire Middle East.