As tensions continue to simmer across Europe and the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump has found himself at the center of a rapidly changing global security landscape—one marked by Russian military provocations, faltering peace efforts, and growing frustration among America’s allies and adversaries alike.
On September 21, 2025, President Trump made headlines with a clear commitment to NATO’s eastern flank. Responding to a question from an Italian journalist with Ansa ahead of a memorial service in Arizona, Trump stated, “Yeah, I would. I would,” when asked if the United States would come to the aid of Poland and the Baltic states should Russia continue to escalate. His remarks came as NATO faced mounting pressure to respond decisively to a series of Russian incursions in the region.
Just days earlier, Russia had violated Estonian airspace for a tense 12 minutes, prompting Estonia to invoke NATO’s Article 4 and call for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. The incident, which occurred on September 19, was only the latest in a string of provocations. Earlier in the month, Poland reported that 19 Russian drones had breached its own airspace, leading to heightened alert and a chorus of calls for stronger action from NATO members.
Leaders from Lithuania, Estonia, and the Czech Republic have not minced words in their appeals for a tougher stance against Moscow. Czech President Petr Pavel, speaking on September 21, underscored the gravity of the situation: “What has happened in recent days in Poland and Estonia, and what has been happening in Ukraine for four years now, concerns us all. If we don’t stick together, sooner or later it will happen to us too.” Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovile Šakaliene, for her part, advocated for shooting down Russian drones, even referencing Turkey’s precedent from a decade ago: “Three Russian fighter jets over Tallinn is one more hard proof that Eastern Sentry is long due. NATO's border in the northeast is being tested for a reason. We need to mean business. PS: Turkey set an example 10 years ago. Some food for thought.”
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski echoed these sentiments, declaring, “NATO should react very firmly and unequivocally to Russia’s provocations.” The sense of urgency was palpable as the Estonian foreign ministry announced that the UN Security Council would convene on September 22 to address Russia’s “brazen violation” of Estonian airspace.
These security concerns in Europe dovetail with Trump’s ongoing public criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine. At the American Cornerstone Institute’s Founders Dinner at Mount Vernon, Trump lamented, “I am very disappointed in President Putin. Anywhere between 5,000-7,000 people are dying every week...” He doubled down on his frustration during a press conference with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, stating, “He has let me down. I mean, he’s killing many people and he’s losing more people than he’s… than he’s killing. I mean, frankly, Russian soldiers are being killed at a higher rate than the Ukrainian soldiers.”
Trump has repeatedly argued that the war would not have erupted had he remained in the Oval Office. “This was a thing that would have never happened had I been president. If I were president, it would have never happened. And it didn’t happen for four years. Most people agree it didn’t happen, nor was it close to happening,” he insisted. He recalled a summit in Alaska where he urged Putin to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, though no peace deal materialized. “I spoke to President Putin about Ukraine, it was the apple of his eye. I’ve said that many times… but he would have never done what he did, except that he didn’t respect the leadership of the US,” Trump said, suggesting that Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 stemmed from a lack of respect for President Joe Biden’s leadership.
Trump has also floated the idea that energy policy could be a lever for peace. “If the oil prices come down, then Russia will settle,” he argued, proposing that increased oil production could reduce prices and “automatically stop the war with Russia and Ukraine.” He has called on European nations to reduce their reliance on Russian energy, believing this could shift the dynamics of the conflict.
The Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and escalated into a full-scale invasion in February 2022, has seen Ukraine launch counteroffensives to reclaim territory, while Russia retains control over areas such as Mariupol and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Trump’s diplomatic efforts, however, have yet to yield the breakthroughs he once promised. According to the Washington Post, Trump’s disappointment with Putin has become more pronounced in recent weeks: “He’s let me down,” Trump said. “He really let me down.”
But the challenges to Trump’s foreign policy ambitions do not stop at Europe’s borders. The Middle East has grown increasingly volatile, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launching a new offensive in Gaza City and striking Hamas targets inside Qatar—a U.S. ally that has been hosting diplomatic negotiations. “They have to be very, very careful,” Trump warned after the attack, highlighting the delicate balance the U.S. must maintain as it seeks to support Israel while preserving critical relationships with Arab partners.
Arab diplomats, speaking anonymously to The New York Times, revealed a shifting regional calculus: some now view Israel, rather than Iran, as their primary security concern—a notable change after the warming of ties during Trump’s first term and the signing of the Abraham Accords. The recent Israeli strike on Qatar, using U.S.-supplied weapons, has rattled confidence in America’s ability to rein in its allies and maintain regional stability. With support for Israel still strong among Republicans in Congress, calls for a fundamental shift in U.S. policy are likely to meet stiff resistance.
Trump’s approach to international diplomacy has drawn mixed reviews. Max Bergmann, a former State Department official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, observed, “Trying to reach peace agreements is very hard,” and criticized Trump for not surrounding himself with experienced diplomats. Matt Kroenig, a former Pentagon adviser, noted that Trump’s brashness sometimes gets results—such as pressing NATO allies for increased defense spending—but warned that on more intractable issues, Trump can lose interest or give up.
Inside the administration, foreign policy decision-making has become more centralized, with Trump slashing the National Security Council’s staff and relying heavily on a tight circle of advisers. Senator Marco Rubio, now serving as both secretary of state and national security adviser, has become a key figure in shaping strategy. “It’s one person setting the strategy and everyone else is waiting to see,” Kroenig said.
As Trump prepares for the annual United Nations General Assembly, he continues to campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize and touts “world peace” as his goal. Yet, as he acknowledged during a news conference in the UK, the reality is far more complicated. “You never know in war. You know, war is a different thing. Things happen that are very opposite of what you thought.”
With Russian jets testing NATO’s resolve in the Baltics and Poland, Ukraine’s war grinding on, and the Middle East in turmoil, the coming weeks will test not just Trump’s rhetoric, but the ability of the United States and its allies to respond to a world in flux.