The simmering tensions between the United States and China erupted into open economic warfare this week, as President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on all Chinese imports and a raft of export controls on critical software. The escalation came in response to Beijing’s surprise move to impose broad export controls on rare earth elements—materials essential to the global technology sector—setting off a chain reaction that has rattled markets and left diplomats scrambling to contain the fallout.
President Trump, speaking via his Truth Social platform on October 10, 2025, declared, “Starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying.” This move piles on top of the existing 30% U.S. duties, bringing the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to a staggering 130%—a level virtually unheard of in modern international trade, according to coverage by Fox Business and DW.
Trump’s announcement followed closely on the heels of China’s decision to dramatically expand its own export controls, targeting rare earth elements and, in a sweeping gesture, “virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them.” Trump characterized China’s approach as “an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade,” adding, “It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.”
The rare earths in question are not just any commodities—they are the backbone of advanced manufacturing, used in everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to military hardware. As Reuters and Fox Business noted, China currently supplies over 90% of the world’s processed rare earths and rare earth magnets, giving Beijing immense leverage over global supply chains.
The tit-for-tat moves have reignited a trade war that had, until recently, been on pause after several rounds of high-stakes negotiations. Earlier this year, both sides had exchanged punishing tariffs, only to step back in hopes of reaching a broader deal. But the latest developments have left that détente in tatters. According to The New York Times, “the fragility in China-U.S. relations is deepening,” with both governments convinced they hold the upper hand and each accusing the other of provocation.
Trump’s new measures aren’t limited to tariffs. He also announced plans for sweeping export controls on “any and all critical software,” effective November 1. While details remain vague, the move is widely seen as an attempt to choke off China’s access to advanced technologies—a strategy the U.S. has pursued in parallel with its trade agenda, much to Beijing’s frustration.
“Some very strange things are happening in China!” Trump posted earlier on Friday. “They are becoming very hostile, and sending letters to Countries throughout the World, that they want to impose Export Controls on each and every element of production having to do with Rare Earths, and virtually anything else they can think of, even if it’s not manufactured in China.”
Beijing, for its part, has pushed back hard against the American narrative. Chinese commentators argue that their export controls are a direct response to Washington’s own technological restrictions, which have targeted Chinese firms and sought to limit the country’s access to advanced semiconductors and other critical inputs. “What is Trump feeling wronged about?” wrote Hu Xijin, the influential former editor of the Communist Party-linked Global Times, on Weibo. “What is he angry about? He should first understand what the U.S. has done to China!”
Indeed, many in China see the U.S. as the provocateur. As The New York Times reported, Chinese analysts insist that Washington’s escalating tech restrictions and its support for Taiwan are part of a broader campaign to “suppress China.” Professor Wang Yiwei of Renmin University told the paper, “There are several areas where China has the upper hand,” suggesting that Beijing is seeking concessions not just on trade, but on a range of geopolitical issues.
Still, the scale of China’s new rare earth controls has startled even seasoned observers. The restrictions prohibit shipments of critical materials to producers of military equipment in the U.S. and Europe and bar the transfer out of China of technology that could help other nations set up their own rare earth industries. Some see this as a bold, even risky, gambit. Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, warned that Beijing may have “overplayed its hand,” underestimating how aggressively Trump would respond.
On the American side, the economic and political stakes are enormous. The S&P 500 dropped more than 2% on the day of Trump’s announcement, its steepest decline since April, as investors digested the prospect of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Meanwhile, U.S. farmers—already battered by China’s boycott of American soybeans—face further uncertainty, and the broader manufacturing sector is bracing for supply chain disruptions.
Diplomatic efforts to cool tensions have so far yielded little. Trump had previously threatened to cancel a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, only to walk back the threat hours later. “No I haven’t canceled but I don’t know that we’re gonna have it,” he told reporters. “But I’m gonna be there regardless so I would assume we might have it.” The meeting, announced by Trump but never confirmed by Beijing, now hangs in the balance.
Behind the scenes, both sides appear to be calculating their next moves carefully. Some Chinese analysts believe Trump’s unpredictability could yet bring about a compromise, while others warn that further escalation would be disastrous for both economies. “If the trade talks fail, I’m deeply concerned that the all-fronts confrontation between the two sides will escalate,” said Professor Zhu Feng of Nanjing University.
As the November 1 deadline approaches, the world is watching closely. The outcome will not only shape the future of U.S.-China relations but could also have lasting repercussions for global markets, supply chains, and the delicate balance of technological power. For now, the only certainty is uncertainty—a reminder that, in the high-stakes game of superpower rivalry, no move goes unanswered, and the stakes just keep getting higher.