Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have reached a fever pitch, with the threat of military escalation looming larger than ever. On December 6, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that ground operations targeting what he described as drug-trafficking networks in Venezuela would begin "very soon." Speaking at the White House, Trump hinted at possible ground assaults, though he stopped short of providing any specifics about their timing or methods. The announcement follows months of mounting pressure on Venezuela's embattled leader, Nicolás Maduro, and a series of U.S. military maneuvers in the Caribbean region.
Since September 2, 2025, the U.S. has deployed warships and fighter jets to the Caribbean and authorized attacks on Venezuelan vessels, all under the stated aim of combating drug cartels. According to IRNA, these moves have been condemned by the Venezuelan government as hegemonic and provocative. Trump has repeatedly defended the strikes, blaming Maduro for issues ranging from narcotics smuggling to the region’s ongoing migration crisis. "We know where they live. We know where the bad ones are, and we’re going to start that very soon," Trump told reporters after a cabinet meeting, as reported by AhlulBayt News Agency.
But the rhetoric and actions have not gone unnoticed by the international community. On December 7, 2025, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov urged the U.S. to avoid sliding into a full-scale conflict with Venezuela. As reported by Xinhua, Ryabkov expressed deep concern, attributing rising tensions to what he called the Trump administration’s desire to assert dominance in the region. He reaffirmed Russia’s strong solidarity with Venezuela, citing a recently concluded strategic partnership agreement: "We support Venezuela, just as it supports us ... In this trying time, we stand with Caracas and its leadership shoulder to shoulder."
Russia’s worries are not unfounded. The Pentagon has carried out at least 22 known strikes on alleged drug vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean since September, resulting in more than 87 deaths, according to TASS. The U.S. military’s presence in the region is significant, with nearly 15,000 personnel stationed in the Caribbean, as NPR has reported.
While the White House’s public statements focus on combating drug trafficking and pressuring Maduro, experts warn that the situation on the ground is far more complex than it may appear. As Fox News Digital noted on December 7, 2025, Venezuela’s military, while formidable on paper, is severely weakened by years of corruption, decay, and political control. Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat, described Venezuela as "a fortress built on sand wrapped around a criminal regime." He argued that any hypothetical U.S. action would be more akin to "evicting a terrorist cartel that settled next door and not invading a country."
Medina also warned of the risks posed by Venezuela’s dense civilian population, stressing the need for extreme caution. "The only acceptable approach is overwhelming bias toward restraint and longer operational timelines, forgoing targets that cannot be struck cleanly," he said. The country’s military hardware includes 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad rocket systems, and an estimated 6–10 flyable Su-30MK2 jets. Air defenses include S-300VM, Buk-M2E, and Pechora-2M systems, according to Fox News Digital.
Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, told Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s most relevant threat lies in its air-naval systems. "Reasonably speaking, in the first day or two of a campaign plan, we can eliminate the air and maritime threat to U.S. forces," Montgomery said. However, he cautioned that a ground operation would be a totally different story. Venezuela has about 65,000 to 70,000 professional military personnel and a massive militia whose motivation and loyalty are uncertain. The country’s territory—twice the size of California and home to 35 to 40 million citizens—would make any ground campaign "a terrifically challenging" and potentially nightmarish scenario. "Today, I would not do this. I do not recommend it," Montgomery stated bluntly.
Despite these warnings, President Trump has remained steadfast in his position. He claimed on December 3, 2025, that the military operation had already saved "thousands of American lives," though he offered no evidence and ignored lawmakers’ demands for the release of unedited footage from the first strike carried out on September 2. Meanwhile, research by the Niskanen Center warns that the U.S. operations could trigger the deportation of three to four million Venezuelan immigrants currently living in the United States—a move that could have significant humanitarian and political consequences.
On the political front, Trump has linked Maduro to drug trafficking—an accusation that the Venezuelan leader denies. Maduro, for his part, has refused to step down despite mounting U.S. pressure and international condemnation. As NPR’s Ayesha Rascoe reported, Trump has stated that Maduro’s days as leader are numbered. "He’s not a particularly beloved figure in the country. He’s completely beggared the economy. He lost an election, and he’s involved with all this other kind of criminality and engagement with our strategic competitor. So I do think his days are numbered. Now the question is when that day comes up. I think that’s what we’re all speculating right now," said Jimmy Story, former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela.
The legitimacy of Maduro’s rule has been hotly contested. According to Story, Maduro lost an election by over 70 percentage points last year, with 70% of Venezuelans voting him out of office. Yet, he remains in power, bolstered by support from countries like Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China. Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, told Fox News Digital that "numbers show only 20% of Venezuelans approve of this regime," warning that Caracas’s alignment with "anti-Western regimes" continues to destabilize the region.
The human cost of the crisis is staggering. Nine million people—about 25% of Venezuela’s population—have fled the country, creating the largest migration in the history of the hemisphere, according to NPR. The fate of these refugees, and of Venezuela itself, hangs in the balance as the U.S. weighs its next moves. The prospect of military intervention raises profound questions about the region’s future, the risks of escalation, and the potential for unintended consequences. As former Ambassador Story observed, "The second-, third-, fourth-order effects are the most important here." Reinstitutionalizing a country after decades of institutional decay will be a "nonlinear process," he warned, especially given the proliferation of illegal armed groups and the need to rebuild trust in national institutions.
As the world watches, the stakes could hardly be higher. The coming weeks may determine not only the fate of Nicolás Maduro and his regime, but also the trajectory of U.S.–Latin American relations for years to come.
