In a flurry of diplomatic and economic exchanges that have gripped headlines across India and the United States, oil has once again become the flashpoint in an increasingly tense relationship between the two democracies. At the heart of the latest controversy are repeated claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured him of halting Russian oil imports—a claim India’s government flatly denies. The fallout is reverberating through global energy markets, Indian domestic politics, and the world’s largest democracy’s critical trade ties with Washington.
Over the past week, President Trump has raised the issue of India’s Russian oil purchases three times, each time escalating the rhetoric and threatening significant economic consequences. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump warned, “I spoke with Prime Minister Modi of India, and he said he’s not going to be doing the Russian oil thing.” He added, “But if they want to say that, then they’ll just continue to pay massive tariffs, and they don’t want to do that.” According to The Federal and Bloomberg, Trump’s administration has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, including a 25% duty specifically tied to India’s continued imports of Russian crude oil since August 2025.
India, for its part, has remained steadfast in its official stance. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded pointedly to Trump’s assertions, with spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stating he was “not aware of any such phone conversation” between Modi and Trump and reaffirming that India’s energy purchases are “guided by the need to safeguard the interests of Indian consumers in a volatile energy scenario.” As reported by The Federal, India has described the newly imposed U.S. tariffs as “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” and emphasized its strategy of “broad-basing and diversifying” energy sources to suit market conditions.
Yet, as the diplomatic back-and-forth intensifies, the opposition Congress Party in India is seizing the moment to criticize the Modi government. Congress general secretary in-charge of communications, Jairam Ramesh, didn’t mince words: “The matter of India’s imports of oil from Russia has been raised by President Trump now thrice in the past five days. And no doubt he will keep increasing this tally as he prepares to meet President (Vladimir) Putin in Budapest later in the week.” Ramesh continued, “US President Trump says he has spoken to his good friend Mr Modi and India has promised to stop these imports. The MEA says that it is unaware of such conversations(!), but President Trump has clearly brushed aside the MEA’s attempts at denial.”
The Congress Party went further, dubbing Prime Minister Modi the “mauni baba” (silent sage) for his continued silence on Trump’s claims. On October 18, 2025, Congress asserted that Modi “suddenly becomes a ‘mauni baba’ whenever Trump claims that he stopped ‘Operation Sindoor’ or that India will reduce its oil imports from Russia.” The party accused the Modi government of being “frightened” of Trump and outsourcing key decisions to Washington, even calling for the Centre to consult opposition leaders on the foreign policy crisis.
The stakes of this dispute are not merely rhetorical or political. India has been a major buyer of discounted Russian oil since Western sanctions were imposed on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. For India, access to affordable energy is a matter of national security and economic stability. As The Logical Indian notes, “India’s right to energy security and economic development is legitimate, as is the global community’s concern regarding the war in Ukraine.”
However, the U.S. has maintained that India’s purchases of Russian crude indirectly finance President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine. The tariffs, which now reach up to 50% on certain Indian exports, are designed as economic leverage to force New Delhi’s hand. Trump has made it clear that unless India stops buying Russian oil, the pressure will only increase. “If they want to say that, then they’ll just continue to pay massive tariffs, and they don’t want to do that,” Trump stressed, according to The Federal and Bloomberg.
The impact of U.S. pressure is starting to show in India’s energy procurement patterns. According to Bloomberg, Reliance Industries Ltd.—India’s largest private refiner and traditionally the biggest single buyer of Russian crude in the country—purchased at least 2.5 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil last week, including Iraq’s Basrah Medium, Al-Shaheen, and Qatar Land. Traders familiar with the matter noted that Reliance’s recent buying spree was more active than usual, possibly in response to U.S. scrutiny. The company has also been reaching out to a wide range of suppliers for crude of similar quality to Russia’s, signaling a potential shift in sourcing strategy.
Despite these moves, Indian refiners have indicated they may trim—though not entirely stop—purchases from Russia. The practicalities of global oil markets and India’s vast energy needs mean that a complete halt is a tall order. Moreover, the European Union’s embargo on fuels made from Russian crude, set to take effect on January 21, 2026, could further complicate matters for Indian exporters, especially Reliance, which has significant sales to the EU. Official EU guidelines now advise counterparties to exercise added caution when dealing with Indian fuel exports, underlining the international ripple effects of the U.S.-India spat.
The diplomatic row has also spilled into other areas. In a controversial claim, President Trump asserted that his tariff threats had helped broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after border conflicts, crediting himself with forcing both countries to the table. India, however, maintains that the cessation of hostilities was achieved through direct military dialogue, not external pressure. This dispute over credit for peace only adds another layer to the already complex and sometimes fraught relationship between Washington and New Delhi.
As the world watches, both countries face difficult choices. For India, the balancing act between affordable energy, national interests, and global diplomatic pressures is as delicate as ever. For the United States, the challenge lies in reconciling its geopolitical objectives with the realities of its partnership with India, a key player in the Indo-Pacific and a vital counterweight to China.
With Congress demanding more transparency and engagement, and Washington ramping up economic pressure, the coming weeks could prove decisive. Whether through dialogue, compromise, or continued confrontation, the outcome will shape not only the future of India-U.S. relations but also the global energy landscape in a time of extraordinary volatility.