Trump Set To Name New Fed Chair Friday Morning

Markets, policymakers, and political observers are on tenterhooks as President Donald Trump prepares to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, a decision expected to send ripples through the global economy. The announcement, slated for the morning of January 30, 2026, has become a focal point for speculation, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the odds-on favorite, eclipsing a field that once included Wall Street luminaries, seasoned policymakers, and economic heavyweights.

The process to select Jerome Powell’s successor began in earnest last September, with an initial pool of eleven candidates. According to CNN, the list was whittled down by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, yielding a final four: Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock’s chief investment officer for fixed income, Rick Rieder. Each brought distinct credentials and policy leanings, but over recent days, the calculus has shifted dramatically.

On Thursday, January 29, President Trump confirmed at the premiere for "Melania"—a film about the first lady—that his decision was imminent. "I'll be announcing the Fed chair tomorrow morning," Trump told reporters, quipping, "I do, I better, otherwise I have to go to work very quickly." The president’s remarks, coupled with a flurry of activity at the White House, set off a cascade of speculation. Warsh, a former Fed governor and one-time finalist for the chair in 2017, was reportedly seen at the White House on Thursday, fueling rumors that he had received the "wink and the nod" from Trump, as reported by journalist Rachel Bade and echoed by InvestingLive.

Betting markets responded in kind. On Kalshi, a popular prediction platform, Warsh’s implied probability of securing the nomination soared to 80% by Thursday evening, overtaking previous frontrunners. Rick Rieder, who had briefly led the field on the strength of his Wall Street credentials and dovish stance on interest rates, saw his odds tumble as Trump hinted that his pick was "somebody that could have been there a few years ago"—a clear allusion to Warsh’s near-miss in 2017.

Warsh’s reputation precedes him. Known as a critic of the Fed’s ultra-loose monetary policy in the aftermath of the financial crisis, he has been viewed as more hawkish than Powell, particularly on inflation and balance sheet discipline. As InvestingLive noted, markets are closely monitoring whether a Warsh-led Fed would prioritize tightening financial conditions or take a more assertive stance on inflation credibility. The US dollar, in fact, has strengthened in response to the growing likelihood of Warsh’s appointment, reflecting investor anticipation of a potential policy shift.

But the intrigue doesn’t end there. Rick Rieder, the BlackRock executive who remains a finalist, brings a different set of strengths—and complications. Rieder is widely respected on Wall Street for his deep knowledge of complex financial markets and has advocated for lower interest rates, a position that aligns with Trump’s calls for massive rate cuts. Yet, as CNN detailed, Rieder’s lack of government experience stands out: all ten Fed chairs since 1935 have held prior roles in the executive branch, a tradition Rieder would break if selected.

Moreover, Rieder’s policy views diverge from Trump’s on several key issues. In a 2021 interview with CNN, Rieder criticized Trump’s signature corporate tax cut, saying, "I think 21% is too low," and argued that the benefit to business was "too high," with many corporations using tax savings for share buybacks rather than investment. On immigration, Rieder has publicly supported increasing the number of foreign-born workers to offset the retirement of baby boomers, stating during a Morningstar podcast, "In most economies around the world, you need immigration." He added, "With an aging population and, like I say, without immigration, it’s really, really hard to fix that." These positions put him at odds with Trump’s recent immigration crackdown, which the White House hailed as producing negative net migration for the first time in fifty years.

Rieder’s political donations add another layer of complexity. Federal filings reveal contributions to both Democrats—including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Cory Booker—and Republicans, notably those who have opposed Trump, such as Nikki Haley and Jeb Bush. While campaign donations are not typically disqualifying for a Fed chair, in today’s hyper-partisan climate, they could weigh on Trump’s decision. As Larry Kudlow, a former Trump economist, wrote in The New York Sun, "Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett understand Trumponomics. They can be independent but still understand that the supply-side economic boom does not cause inflation. No one can be sure, though, about Wall Streeter Rick Rieder."

For his part, Warsh is seen as a safer political bet. His prior government experience, combined with his hawkish reputation, appeals to segments of the GOP concerned about inflation and the Fed’s credibility. Yet, some investors worry that too much independence could clash with Trump’s preference for loyalty and dovish policy. As Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, observed, "The problem is none of the candidates have all the characteristics Trump wants: someone loyal, dovish and credible to markets."

Meanwhile, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May, has been tight-lipped about his future. According to CNBC, Powell retains the option to serve out the remaining two years of his term as governor, regardless of who is tapped as his successor. The White House, for its part, has tried to tamp down speculation. Spokesman Kush Desai told reporters, "President Trump will make an announcement about his pick for the Federal Reserve at the appropriate juncture. Any and all reporting on the Federal Reserve Chairman nominations process until then is a waste of everyone’s time."

The stakes are high. With inflation still above target, any signal of political influence over monetary policy could have immediate implications for Treasury yields, the US dollar, and broader risk sentiment. Investors, policymakers, and the public alike are bracing for what could be a defining moment for the central bank’s independence and the direction of US economic policy.

As the clock ticks down to Trump’s Friday morning announcement, the only certainty is that the decision will reverberate far beyond the marble halls of the Federal Reserve—reshaping expectations, markets, and perhaps the very nature of central bank leadership in a polarized political era.