As the world’s two largest democracies navigate a shifting geopolitical landscape, the relationship between the United States and India has become a study in both strategic cooperation and sharp confrontation. Over the past year, President Donald Trump’s administration has oscillated between punitive trade actions and overtures for closer security ties, leaving New Delhi and Washington in a complex dance of mutual interest, suspicion, and negotiation.
On December 11, 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump held a telephone conversation, reviewing the progress of the India–US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. According to an official statement cited by The Times of India, both leaders expressed satisfaction with the steady strengthening of bilateral cooperation across a broad range of areas. They discussed ways to sustain momentum in enhancing bilateral trade—a topic that’s become increasingly fraught—and explored expanding cooperation in critical technologies, energy, defense, and security. The conversation also touched on the India–US COMPACT (Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce and Technology) for the 21st century, signaling the breadth of their ambitions.
Yet, beneath the surface of diplomatic pleasantries, serious tensions have emerged. The Trump administration has imposed a series of punitive tariffs on Indian exports, pushing reciprocal tariffs to a staggering 50 percent on several commodities as of 2025. According to IANS, these measures were triggered in part by India’s decision to purchase sanctioned Russian oil, a move that Washington viewed as undermining its broader sanctions regime. The United States, in turn, has pressed New Delhi to buy American oil—even at higher costs—while seeking greater access for US farm produce in Indian markets. The reverse, however, has not been welcome, with President Trump voicing particular concern about Indian rice exports.
Trump’s main complaint? He believes India is “dumping” rice into the US market, undercutting American farmers and driving down domestic prices. As he put it, “Indian rice is distorting competition and depressing prices for our farmers.” The administration has threatened new tariffs on Indian rice exports as a protective measure—a move that has riled both Indian exporters and American consumers who enjoy premium basmati rice. The US market, it should be noted, is relatively minor for Indian rice exporters (about 2.74 lakh tons out of 60.65 lakh tons exported in 2024–25), so higher tariffs may hurt US consumers more than Indian producers, especially for specialty varieties.
Trade talks to resolve these issues have proven difficult. A US trade delegation visited India on December 10–11, 2025, but discussions reportedly made little progress. Disputes over market access and tariff policies have bogged down negotiations, further straining the trade relationship. According to The Times of India, these tensions are not just about economics—they are deeply entwined with domestic politics on both sides, with some analysts suggesting that Trump’s tough stance is aimed at shoring up support among American farmers and “MAGA” loyalists.
Meanwhile, the US National Security Strategy document released in November 2025 underscored the importance of a trade and strategic partnership with New Delhi. The document, as reported by IANS, reflected an interest in “aligning the actions of our allies and partners with our joint interest in preventing domination by any single competitor nation.” In practical terms, this means encouraging India to take a more active role in Indo-Pacific security, including continued quadrilateral cooperation with Australia, Japan, and the United States—a nod to the “Quad” alliance that has become central to US strategy in Asia.
The timing of the Modi-Trump call was notable. It came just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s high-profile, two-day summit with Modi in New Delhi—Putin’s first state visit to India since the Ukraine war began in February 2022. The visit was closely watched in Washington, where a photo of Modi and Putin carpooling together even surfaced in discussion at the US Congress. US Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove, during a House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing, used the image to criticize the Trump administration’s approach: “Trump’s policies towards India can only be described as cutting our nose to spite our face... Being a coercive partner has a cost. And this poster is worth a thousand words.” She continued, “You do not get a Nobel Peace Prize by driving US strategic partners into the arms of our adversaries.”
Kamlager-Dove’s comments reflect a broader unease in Washington about the impact of Trump’s tariffs and what some see as a heavy-handed approach to allies. “We must move with incredible urgency to mitigate the damage that this administration has done to the US-India partnership and return to the cooperation that is essential to US prosperity, security, and global leadership,” she added, highlighting the stakes for both countries.
At the same time, Trump’s foreign policy has oscillated between confrontation and selective conciliation—not just with India, but with China as well. On October 30, 2025, Trump publicly revived the idea of a “G2” summit in Busan, South Korea, meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. As Trump posted on Truth Social, “THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY!” He later described the summit as a “great one” that would bring “everlasting peace.” The talks yielded several concessions: China pledged to buy American soybeans and eased export restrictions on rare earths, providing some relief to US industries dependent on these critical materials.
Despite such moments of transactional engagement, the US National Security Strategy continues to frame China as America’s primary strategic competitor. Recent moves, like permitting certain AI chip exports to China under strict conditions, show that Washington is willing to engage selectively where economic interests align, even as broader tensions simmer.
This triangular dynamic—between the US, India, and China—has become one of the defining features of contemporary geopolitics. Washington’s approach to New Delhi and Beijing reveals both the opportunities and constraints of American strategy in Asia. India is consistently framed as a partner and a critical player in the Indo-Pacific, while China is cast as the principal strategic competitor. This divergence in framing sets the tone for how President Trump manages relations with the two countries, balancing the need for cooperation with the imperatives of competition.
For now, the US and India remain locked in a complex negotiation, with both sides seeking to maximize their leverage while maintaining the broader partnership. Whether the current cycle of tariffs and trade disputes will give way to a new era of cooperation—or simply deepen existing rifts—remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the fate of the US-India relationship will have far-reaching implications, not just for the two countries, but for the entire Indo-Pacific region.
