President Donald Trump has long staked his political fortunes on the strength of the U.S. economy, repeatedly touting record growth and prosperity as the backbone of his leadership. But as the 2025 holiday season approaches, new polling and economic data reveal a stark disconnect between the administration’s messaging and the lived experiences of millions of Americans.
According to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted between December 4 and 8, 2025, only 31% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy—a record low for either of his terms in office. This figure, reported by several outlets including Axios, Common Dreams, and NewsNation, highlights a precipitous decline from earlier in the year, when Trump’s economic approval stood at 40% in March. The drop is particularly notable among Republican voters, with approval slipping from 78% to 69% over the same period.
The poll’s findings are sobering: 68% of Americans now describe the state of the economy as “poor,” a sentiment echoed by 44% of Republicans. About half of all respondents said it was harder than usual to afford holiday gifts this year, with many reporting cutbacks on nonessential purchases. A “vast majority” noted persistent increases in the prices of groceries and electricity, underscoring the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
Despite these numbers, President Trump and his administration continue to project a message of economic strength. During a rally in Pennsylvania on December 9, Trump insisted that “prices are coming down very substantially,” dismissing concerns about affordability as a “hoax” orchestrated by Democrats. “They have a new word. You know, they always have a hoax. The new word is affordability,” Trump declared, as reported by Common Dreams and NewsNation.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick echoed this optimism in a CNBC interview, boasting that the U.S. now has “the greatest $30 trillion economy in the world” and touting a 4% GDP growth rate. “We are doing great,” Lutnick said. “Nothing bad is happening. Greatness is happening. We grew at 4% GDP! Come on!”
Yet, the data tell a different story. NPR reported that grocery and electricity prices have continued to rise throughout Trump’s second term, directly contradicting claims made by the president. University of Michigan economist Betsey Stevenson was blunt in her assessment: “Trump’s claims about inflation are false, and you can go to the grocery store and see it yourself.”
Some Republican lawmakers are beginning to voice concern about the administration’s messaging. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told The Hill, “You can’t call it a hoax and suggest that people are going to believe it. What you say matters.” An anonymous GOP senator further highlighted the disconnect, expressing unease about the optics of Trump building a massive luxury ballroom in the White House while many Americans struggle to pay their bills. Senator Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia added, “A lot of people are still having trouble making ends meet” in her state.
The economic unease is not limited to the president’s party. The AP-NORC poll also found Trump’s approval on immigration had dropped from 49% in March to 38% in December, and his overall job approval rating slipped from 42% to 36%. Even on border security—a longtime stronghold for Trump—approval edged down slightly, though it remains relatively high at 50%.
Interviews with voters reveal a range of frustrations. Larry Reynolds, a 74-year-old Republican retiree in Ohio, told The Dispatch he supports Trump’s tariff policies in principle but worries that high rates have created a “vicious circle now where they aren’t really justifying the tariffs.” He also doubts that inflation will subside quickly, regardless of White House action: “I don’t think it’ll be anything really soon. I think it’s just going to take time.”
On the issue of immigration enforcement, independents like Jim Rollins of Georgia and Shaniqwa Copeland of Florida expressed discomfort with aggressive deportation tactics, even while supporting stronger border security. Copeland, a home health aide, lamented, “Now they’re just picking up anybody. They just like, pick up people, grabbing anybody. It’s crazy.”
Healthcare and government management remain persistent thorns for the administration. Only about 30% of adults approve of Trump’s handling of healthcare, and 35% approve of his management of the federal government—both down from earlier in the year. Voters like Copeland point to growing difficulties in accessing affordable health coverage and finding providers, with long wait times and limited options becoming the norm.
Amid these challenges, the Federal Reserve has taken steps to address economic uncertainty. On December 11, the central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the third time in 2025, aiming to stimulate growth and ease borrowing costs. Federal Reserve projections now suggest that 2026 could bring faster growth, lower inflation, and steady unemployment as the effects of tariffs and volatility begin to wane. However, President Trump criticized the latest rate cut as insufficient, saying it “could have been doubled, at least doubled.”
Looking ahead, the administration is banking on tax relief to boost consumer confidence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Americans could expect “very large refunds” of $1,000 to $2,000 per household in 2026, thanks to the tax cuts in Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” “I think we’re going to see $100 [billion] to $150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household,” Bessent told The New York Post on December 11.
Still, the promise of future refunds has yet to sway public sentiment. As the holiday season unfolds, Americans are walking into stores and logging onto shopping sites feeling poorer, not richer, than a year ago. Many are trimming gift lists, skipping bigger-ticket items, and scaling back nonessential spending—behavior that not only reflects economic anxiety but also weighs on consumer confidence and, by extension, Trump’s approval ratings.
White House spokesman Kush Desai told Axios that the administration remains focused on “recreating the historic job, wage and economic growth that Americans enjoyed during President Trump’s first term.” But with polling numbers at historic lows and voters across the political spectrum expressing concern, the task ahead looks formidable.
As the nation heads into an election year, the gap between official optimism and everyday reality remains a central tension—one that will likely define the political and economic debates of 2026.
