As the Federal Reserve approaches a pivotal transition, the future leadership of the world’s most influential central bank is drawing intense speculation, political maneuvering, and even some high-stakes wagering. With Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair set to expire in May 2026, President Donald Trump is weighing his options for a successor, and the financial world is watching every move with bated breath.
One person who isn’t packing his bags just yet is Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran. According to Bloomberg, Miran announced that he plans to remain on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors beyond the official end of his term in January 2026—at least until a new appointee is confirmed. This continuation is permitted under the law that governs the Fed, ensuring that the central bank maintains a full roster during this critical period of transition. For those who follow the intricacies of monetary policy, this is more than just a bureaucratic footnote; it’s a sign of how fraught and closely watched the coming months will be.
Meanwhile, the guessing game over who will take the helm from Powell has spilled out of the halls of Washington and into the digital age, thanks to prediction markets like Kalshi. On December 15, 2025, traders on Kalshi placed the odds of President Trump selecting Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell at 42%. That’s a striking 27 percentage point increase from just a week prior, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift when it comes to the Fed’s future. Still, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, remains the frontrunner with a 50% chance—though that’s down 20 points from the previous week. As for Christopher Waller, the odds have not been in his favor lately, dropping to just 6%.
To get a sense of just how much is riding on this decision, consider the trading volume on Kalshi’s Fed Chair market: a little over $10.2 million. That’s not just idle speculation; it’s real money reflecting real anxieties and hopes about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Kalshi has transformed public sentiment into tradable odds, giving everyone from armchair economists to Wall Street veterans a stake in the outcome.
President Trump himself added fuel to the fire during remarks on Friday, December 12, 2025. When asked about the Fed Chair race, he was unusually candid: “Yes, I think he is. I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both – I think the two Kevins are great,” Trump said, according to Fox Business. “I think there are a couple of other people that are great.” The president’s comment only heightened the sense of suspense, confirming that his two leading candidates are, indeed, Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.
So, who are these two men vying for one of the most powerful jobs on the planet? Let’s start with Kevin Hassett. As director of the White House’s National Economic Council, Hassett has been a steadfast defender of Trump’s economic vision. He’s no stranger to the administration or its priorities, having held two roles during the first Trump administration and served as a key advisor on economic policy during the 2024 presidential campaign. His loyalty and expertise have not gone unnoticed, and many see him as the safe, steady hand to guide the Fed through turbulent times.
Then there’s Kevin Warsh, whose resume reads like a greatest hits of economic credentials. Warsh joined the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in 2006, becoming the youngest person ever to serve on the board at that time. Before his stint at the Fed, Warsh was a banker at Morgan Stanley, bringing a blend of Wall Street savvy and central banking experience to the table. He’s no stranger to presidential consideration, either. In 2017, Warsh was among Trump’s leading candidates to replace then-Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Ultimately, Trump tapped Jerome Powell for the job, but Warsh’s star has never really faded in Republican economic circles.
More recently, Warsh was floated as a potential Treasury secretary in the second Trump administration, though that position ultimately went to former hedge fund chief Scott Bessent. For Warsh, the possibility of becoming Fed Chair now offers a chance at redemption—and a shot at shaping U.S. monetary policy at a moment when the stakes couldn’t be higher.
While the world waits for Trump’s decision, the process is hardly unfolding in a vacuum. The Fed’s leadership transition comes at a time of mounting economic uncertainty. Inflationary pressures, global market volatility, and questions about the future of interest rates have all put the central bank in the spotlight. Whoever takes over from Powell will inherit a complex set of challenges—and a divided public eager for answers.
For his part, Jerome Powell has navigated the Fed through some of the most turbulent economic waters in recent history. From the COVID-19 pandemic to the inflation surge that followed, Powell’s tenure has been marked by tough calls and sometimes controversial decisions. His term ends in May 2026, but the search for his successor is already reshaping the conversation about America’s economic future.
As for Stephen Miran, his decision to stay on until a replacement is confirmed reflects a broader concern about stability at the Fed. According to Bloomberg, this move is not just a matter of convenience but a safeguard to ensure continuity as the central bank transitions to new leadership. With so much at stake, even the smallest disruptions could have outsized effects on markets and policy.
It’s worth noting that the law governing the Federal Reserve allows for such extensions, precisely to prevent gaps in the board’s membership during critical periods. In a world where perception can move markets as much as policy, the optics of a fully staffed Fed are as important as the reality.
As the days tick down to Powell’s departure, the speculation is sure to intensify. Will Trump opt for the loyal insider in Hassett, or will he take a chance on the experienced outsider in Warsh? Or, as the president himself hinted, could a dark horse emerge from the pack? The answer will have far-reaching consequences—not just for Wall Street, but for Main Street and beyond.
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. As traders place their bets and policymakers weigh their options, the future of the Federal Reserve—and, by extension, the U.S. economy—hangs in the balance. One thing’s for sure: all eyes are on the Fed, and nobody is looking away.
