In recent weeks, the southern Caribbean Sea has become the stage for a geopolitical drama, as the United States ramps up military pressure on Venezuela, raising both expectations of an armed strike and fears of a drawn-out conflict. On November 27, 2025, tension reached a fever pitch with the Trump administration’s decision to designate Venezuela's government, led by President Nicolás Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organization—an extraordinary move that signals a new phase in the standoff between Washington and Caracas, according to NPR.
The military buildup is hard to ignore: the U.S. has dispatched the largest naval flotilla to the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis, with roughly 15,000 troops aboard warships. Officially dubbed "Operation Southern Spear," the mission is described by U.S. officials as an anti-narcotics effort, with American forces targeting and destroying alleged drug boats in the region. So far, the operation has resulted in the sinking of ten boats and the deaths of eighty suspected drug traffickers. Yet, as Venezuelan political analyst Benigno Alarcón told NPR, "I don't think they can call this operation a success if all they do is sink 10 boats and kill 80 drug traffickers."
It’s no secret that President Trump has long sought to oust Maduro, whose regime is widely blamed for crushing Venezuela’s democracy and plunging the country into economic ruin—a crisis that has prompted some eight million Venezuelans to flee. Since 2019, Trump recognized opposition lawmaker Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's legitimate president and has encouraged military officers to turn against Maduro. The latest military maneuvers, however, suggest a willingness to consider more forceful options.
Despite the pressure, Maduro has proven resilient. He’s surrounded himself with loyalists and Cuban bodyguards, making any internal coup a long shot. As Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group explained to NPR, "This cozy idea that somehow Maduro falls and the next day María Corina Machado walks into the presidential palace and everybody lives happily ever after is fantastical. That won't happen."
The prospect of direct military intervention is fraught with peril. Venezuela is a vast country—larger than Texas—featuring rugged mountains and dense Amazon jungle. Experts warn that even if a robust invasion force could subdue Venezuela’s conventional army, a far more complicated battle would follow. Jeremy McDermott, co-director of Insight Crime, noted, "Any serious land invasion of Venezuela would be extremely complex. You put boots on the ground almost anywhere in Venezuela, particularly in Caracas and along the border areas, and you are going to face armed resistance."
That resistance could be fierce and multifaceted. Pro-Maduro militias, known as "colectivos," and at least 1,000 Colombian guerrillas based inside Venezuela are prepared to act as a pro-regime paramilitary force. In anticipation of conflict, Maduro’s government has been arming civilians and training them to shoot. As one military trainer told Venezuelan state TV, "This is a peoples war to defend our country."
Yet, inside Venezuela, the mood is far from unified. Most Venezuelans, according to polling cited by NPR, despise Maduro and voted against him in last year’s presidential election—an outcome considered fraudulent by many, including the U.S. government. Opposition leader María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, has become a rallying figure for those hoping for change. Last week, she issued a "freedom manifesto" calling for the restoration of human rights, free markets, free speech, clean elections, and the return of Venezuelan exiles. "We stand at the edge of a new era," she declared.
Anti-government influencers are fanning the flames of hope—and fantasy—by circulating AI-generated videos that imagine U.S. intervention. In one, Maduro is depicted in an orange prison jumpsuit, in the custody of American officials, with a narrator intoning: "All Venezuelans want this as our Christmas present." For some, it’s a vision of justice; for others, it’s a dangerous illusion.
Despite the apparent support for U.S. intervention among Venezuelans, the American public is far less enthusiastic. A recent CBS News and YouGov poll found that 70% of Americans oppose military action in Venezuela, with only 13% considering the country a "major threat" to the United States. Henrique Capriles, an opposition congressman, questioned the likelihood of a dramatic operation to capture Maduro, telling NPR, "Do Americans really care about Maduro? Not at all."
So what is Trump’s endgame? Some analysts speculate that the military buildup is less about actual invasion and more about psychological pressure—hoping to create a "pressure cooker" atmosphere in Caracas that might trigger a palace coup. But as Vladimir Villegas, a Caracas radio show host, observed, the effect has largely been to "create more cohesion within the ranks of the Maduro regime as well as more persecution and repression of the political opposition."
Even if the U.S. succeeded in toppling Maduro, the aftermath could be daunting. Capriles pointed out that Maduro’s United Socialist Party controls nearly every city hall and state house across the country, and the regime’s grip on all branches of government is ironclad. The question of "what comes next" looms large. Would the U.S. be willing to commit the estimated $100 billion needed for reconstruction and stabilization? Capriles is skeptical: "What about the day after a coup? Is the U.S. willing to spend $100 billion to help stabilize Venezuela?"
Meanwhile, Operation Southern Spear continues, but its long-term impact is uncertain. As McDermott of Insight Crime put it, the standoff has become "a giant game of chicken." He explained, "Maduro knows that if he can hang on, President Trump can't keep 11% or more of U.S. fleet indefinitely off the coast of Venezuela. So as long as Maduro doesn't blink, time is on his side."
Washington’s push for regime change, then, is anything but a quick fix. As NPR and other outlets have reported, the risks—military, economic, and political—are considerable. The situation is a high-stakes gamble, not just for Trump, but for the millions of Venezuelans whose future hangs in the balance. With mounting pressure on all sides and no easy answers, the world watches as this "giant game of chicken" plays out in the Caribbean’s troubled waters.