On January 11, 2026, the simmering tensions between the United States and Cuba reached a new boiling point. U.S. President Donald Trump took to his Truth Social platform with a blunt warning: "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE." This message, echoed across major news outlets like Reuters and The Guardian, signaled a dramatic escalation in the decades-old standoff between Washington and Havana.
Trump’s ultimatum came on the heels of seismic events in the region. In early January, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, triggering a strict American oil blockade on the OPEC nation. Shipping data confirmed that, since Maduro’s removal, no Venezuelan oil cargoes had departed for Cuba—a country that, for years, has depended on its South American ally for energy.
Venezuela had been Cuba’s main oil supplier, sending about 26,500 barrels per day of crude and fuel throughout the previous year, according to internal documents from PDVSA and figures cited by Reuters. This supply covered roughly half of Cuba’s oil deficit, powering everything from electricity generation to public transportation. The sudden cutoff, enforced by the U.S. blockade and the chaos in Caracas, left Cuba scrambling for alternatives.
President Trump’s rhetoric was unambiguous. "Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela," he declared. He further alleged that, in exchange, Cuba had provided "security services" for Venezuela’s last two leaders, but insisted, "Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week’s USA attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection any more from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years." These comments, reported by The Guardian, underscored the administration’s intent to isolate Havana and force a fundamental change in its foreign policy and domestic governance.
The U.S. intervention in Venezuela was costly for Cuba in more ways than one. According to official statements from Havana, thirty-two members of Cuba's armed forces and intelligence services lost their lives during the U.S. raid. The Cuban government described the fallen as responsible for "security and defense," but offered no details about the arrangement between the two longtime allies.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel was quick to push back. In a defiant post on X, Cuba’s leader declared, "Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation. Nobody dictates what we do." He added, "Cuba does not attack; it has been attacked by the U.S. for 66 years, and it does not threaten; it prepares, ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood." Diaz-Canel’s words, as cited by Reuters, echoed the enduring spirit of resistance that has characterized Cuba’s relationship with its northern neighbor since Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution.
Bruno Rodriguez, Cuba’s foreign minister, reinforced this stance, stating, "Cuba has the right to import fuel from any suppliers willing to export it." He firmly denied that Cuba had received any material compensation for its security services abroad. Rodriguez’s statement, also shared on X, was a pointed reminder that Cuba considers itself entitled to seek partners beyond Venezuela—despite Washington’s attempts to tighten the noose.
With the main tap from Venezuela dry, Cuba has turned to other sources, albeit with limited success. Mexico has emerged as a critical alternative supplier in recent weeks, though Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified that supply volumes had not increased significantly. Still, she acknowledged that, given the political upheaval in Venezuela, Mexico had become an "important supplier" of crude to the island, as reported by Reuters. Yet, shipping data confirm that Mexican shipments remain too small to offset the loss from Venezuela.
For ordinary Cubans, the consequences are felt daily. Widespread electricity shortages and hours-long rolling blackouts have become the norm. Even the capital, Havana, has not been spared. Shortages of food, fuel, and medicine have pushed the population to the brink, fueling a record-breaking exodus—primarily to the United States—over the past five years. "That doesn’t scare me. Not at all. The Cuban people are prepared for anything," said Havana produce vendor Alberto Jimenez in an interview with Reuters. His resilience is echoed by many, but the hardship is undeniable.
Some, like parking attendant Maria Elena Sabina, have grown weary. "There's no electricity here, no gas, not even liquefied gas. There's nothing here," she lamented. "So yes, a change is needed, a change is needed, and quickly." Her words capture the growing sense of urgency and frustration among Cubans who have endured years of deprivation and uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has not limited its actions to economic pressure alone. On January 10, the State Department issued a security alert urging U.S. citizens to leave Venezuela immediately, citing reports that armed paramilitaries—known as colectivos—were searching for Americans. The alert warned, "US citizens in Venezuela should remain vigilant and exercise caution when travelling by road." The Venezuelan foreign ministry, however, dismissed the warning as "fabricated accounts aimed at creating a perception of risk that does not exist," insisting that the country remained in "absolute calm, peace, and stability."
As the standoff deepens, some U.S. lawmakers have praised Trump’s hardline approach. Florida Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart, himself of Cuban descent, remarked that after "decades of misery, tragedy, and pain," the regime in Havana was nearing its end. This sentiment is shared by others in Washington who see the current crisis as an opportunity to push for political change in Cuba.
In the background, Caracas and Washington are negotiating a $2 billion deal to supply up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the U.S., with proceeds to be deposited in U.S. Treasury-supervised accounts. This arrangement, reported by Reuters and The Guardian, marks a significant shift in regional alliances and could have profound implications for both Cuba and Venezuela.
Despite the mounting pressure, U.S. intelligence assessments, obtained by Reuters, suggest that while Cuba’s economy—particularly agriculture and tourism—is severely strained, there is no clear evidence to support Trump’s claim that the island is "ready to fall." The situation is dire, but the Cuban government has weathered many storms before.
As the lights flicker across Havana and the island’s future hangs in the balance, one thing is clear: the next chapter in U.S.-Cuba relations will be written not just in the halls of power, but in the everyday struggles—and steadfast hopes—of the Cuban people.
